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Championship · Matchweek 22
WatfordWatford
1–0
FT
Stoke CityStoke City

Momentum

– WatfordStoke City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
22

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
19,285

Teams

Coaches
Javier Gracia Carlos · Mark Robins
Position
14 · 7
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Ben Toner

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
7.3° (feels 4.7°)
Wind
4.1
Humidity
87%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

DLWDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 8 · xG 8.28–5.75 · xPts 8.34

  • D A Wrexham 2–2 xG 0.9–1.42 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 xG 2.73–0.63 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 3–2 xG 1.33–1.76 UK CHAMP
  • L A Birmingham City 1–2 xG 1.37–1.34 UK CHAMP
  • D H Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.95–0.59 UK CHAMP

Stoke City

WLLLW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 3.77–5.95 · xPts 5.66

  • W H Swansea City 2–1 xG 0.63–1.1 UK CHAMP
  • L A Ipswich Town 0–1 xG 0.54–1.07 UK CHAMP
  • L A Sheffield United 0–4 xG 0.37–2.67 UK CHAMP
  • L H Hull City 1–2 xG 1.03–0.72 UK CHAMP
  • W H Charlton Athletic 3–0 xG 1.2–0.39 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 21 matches since 2005

Watford 95 draws7 Stoke City

Goals 25–16 · 1.95 per match · BTTS 29% · over 2.5 38%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 52 draws3 Stoke City

Goals 15–8 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 21 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 6–5 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Watford 1–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 3–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 3–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 1–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 0–4 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 1–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Stoke City all · 46Stoke City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.200.96
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 615 / 10 / 216 / 4 / 13
Goals for / match1.151.301.110.74
Goals against / match1.411.171.221.22
Clean sheets15%22%28%30%
Failed to score30%30%37%52%
Both teams scored59%52%44%26%
Over 2.548%44%44%30%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.241.03
xG against / match1.251.151.431.67
xG difference0.100.34-0.19-0.63
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.19-0.13-0.30
xPts / match1.431.571.281.01
Points vs xPts-0.200.04-0.08-0.05
Game state
Scored first26%30%44%35%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.252.38
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.270.08
Came back from behind47%60%22%7%
Leads held67%91%71%75%
Minutes leading18%25%24%16%
Minutes level49%48%50%51%
Minutes trailing34%27%27%32%
First goal (min)48423742
First goal conceded (min)34364440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%55%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%62%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.150.04
Late goals against0.280.220.350.35
Style
Possession51%52%52%51%
Shots13.815.711.29.8
On target4.45.43.82.8
Shot conversion8%8%10%8%
Shots inside box58%57%65%62%
Big chances created2.12.41.81.4
Corners4.95.46.05.6
xG from set plays27%23%28%19%
Goals from headers14%17%16%19%
Pressure index10.912.413.310.2
Dominant minutes47.052.252.748.2
Pass accuracy80%81%78%78%
Fouls11.011.110.410.2
Cards2.151.872.302.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 47%3.3Draw 29% P 27%3.9Away 24% P 26%

Double Chance

1.25Watford or Draw 38% P 37%1.33Watford or Stoke 36% P 36%1.8Draw or Stoke 26% P 27%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 51%1.83No 50% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 46%1.72Under 55% P 54%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home47%46%44%-1.8
Draw27%28%30%+1.8
Away26%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Ben Toner

Career
64 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.77 (3.66 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 42 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.384.05+0.5971
Fouls / match24.721.8+2.54
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.260.17+1.1792
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
34' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-09 11 180 39'8
2025-11-29 30 171 36'8
2025-11-22 60 280 15'7
2025-11-01 20 310 70'11
2025-10-21 30 200 10'8
2025-10-01 · Watford 70 240 2'8
2025-09-20 40 320 39'5
2025-09-13 31 210 3'8
2025-04-18 61 301 3'5
2025-04-05 40 330 29'11