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Championship · Matchweek 23
Birmingham CityBRC
1–1
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– BRCDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
23

Venue

Stadium
St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
Capacity
29,409
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,082

Teams

Coaches
Chris Davies · John Eustace
Position
14 · 12
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-1-2

Referee

Ben Toner

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
5.2° (feels 1.2°)
Wind
5.7
Humidity
75%

Where to watch · 276

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Birmingham City

WLLDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 10 · xG 5.72–8.24 · xPts 5.35

  • L A Sheffield United 0–3 xG 0.74–2.41 UK CHAMP
  • D H Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.37–1.07 UK CHAMP
  • L A Queens Park Rangers 1–2 xG 0.45–1.71 UK CHAMP
  • L A Southampton 1–3 xG 1.83–1.7 UK CHAMP
  • W H Watford 2–1 xG 1.34–1.37 UK CHAMP

Derby County

LLDWD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 6.06–4.41 · xPts 8.21

  • D H Portsmouth 1–1 xG 1.09–0.34 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 xG 1.47–0.12 UK CHAMP
  • D H Millwall 1–1 xG 1.34–1.1 UK CHAMP
  • L H Leicester City 1–3 xG 1.31–1.22 UK CHAMP
  • L A Middlesbrough 1–2 xG 0.84–1.63 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 32 matches since 2006

Birmingham City 1011 draws11 Derby County

Goals 44–51 · 2.97 per match · BTTS 69% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Birmingham City 33 draws4 Derby County

Goals 14–18 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Birmingham City 22 draws1 Derby County

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 2–2 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 2–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 0–4 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 1–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 3–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 2–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBirmingham City all · 46Birmingham City at home · 23Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.391.911.501.43
W / D / L17 / 13 / 1612 / 8 / 320 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.241.701.461.57
Goals against / match1.220.961.281.39
Clean sheets22%30%26%22%
Failed to score24%9%9%13%
Both teams scored56%65%65%65%
Over 2.546%48%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.491.911.231.18
xG against / match1.141.001.321.54
xG difference0.350.91-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG-0.25-0.210.230.38
xPts / match1.571.921.331.18
Points vs xPts-0.18-0.010.170.25
Game state
Scored first50%78%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.352.332.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.410.250.620.50
Came back from behind33%40%35%23%
Leads held71%67%69%67%
Minutes leading28%44%30%32%
Minutes level42%46%46%46%
Minutes trailing31%10%24%22%
First goal (min)39304035
First goal conceded (min)35464045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half49%44%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half39%50%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.170.260.26
Late goals against0.150.170.300.35
Style
Possession54%55%44%40%
Shots13.617.311.010.0
On target4.15.73.63.4
Shot conversion9%10%13%16%
Shots inside box64%63%70%77%
Big chances created2.43.02.22.2
Corners5.86.64.53.6
xG from set plays30%29%39%33%
Goals from headers21%24%28%25%
Pressure index14.418.310.18.6
Dominant minutes54.364.039.934.2
Pass accuracy77%77%73%70%
Fouls11.711.012.312.8
Cards2.112.002.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 48% P 50%3.3Draw 28% P 28%4.0Away 23% P 23%

Double Chance

1.22Birmingham or Draw 39% P 39%1.33Birmingham or Derby 35% P 36%1.8Draw or Derby 26% P 25%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 46% P 50%1.72No 54% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 44%1.66Under 57% P 56%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home50%49%47%-1.9
Draw28%28%29%+1.7
Away23%24%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Ben Toner

Career
64 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.77 (3.66 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 42 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.384.05+0.5971
Fouls / match24.721.8+2.54
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.260.17+1.1792
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
34' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-20 60 220 30'8
2025-12-09 11 180 39'8
2025-11-29 30 171 36'8
2025-11-22 60 280 15'7
2025-11-01 20 310 70'11
2025-10-21 · Derby County 30 200 10'8
2025-10-01 70 240 2'8
2025-09-20 40 320 39'5
2025-09-13 31 210 3'8
2025-04-18 61 301 3'5