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Championship · Matchweek 23
Leicester CityLEI
1–2
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– LEIWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
23

Venue

Stadium
King Power Stadium, Leicester
Capacity
32,312
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,485

Teams

Coaches
Martí Cifuentes Corvillo · Javier Gracia Carlos
Position
13 · 10
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

Joshua Smith

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
4.9° (feels 1.1°)
Wind
5.4
Humidity
86%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Leicester City

LWDWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 11 · xG 6.91–7.89 · xPts 6.32

  • L A Queens Park Rangers 1–4 xG 1.3–2.32 UK CHAMP
  • W H Ipswich Town 3–1 xG 1.32–1.35 UK CHAMP
  • D A Bristol City 2–2 xG 1.5–1.55 UK CHAMP
  • W A Derby County 3–1 xG 1.22–1.31 UK CHAMP
  • L H Sheffield United 2–3 xG 1.57–1.35 UK CHAMP

Watford

LWDDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 7.43–5.98 · xPts 7.61

  • W H Stoke City 1–0 xG 1.1–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • D A Wrexham 2–2 xG 0.9–1.42 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 xG 2.73–0.63 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 3–2 xG 1.33–1.76 UK CHAMP
  • L A Birmingham City 1–2 xG 1.37–1.34 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 33 matches since 2005

Leicester City 185 draws10 Watford

Goals 68–41 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 70%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Leicester City 62 draws2 Watford

Goals 22–10 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Leicester City 31 draws1 Watford

Goals 10–4 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Watford 0–0 Leicester City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Leicester City 1–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–2 Leicester City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Leicester City 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–5 Leicester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Leicester City 4–1 Watford UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
  • W Leicester City 4–2 Watford UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Watford 1–1 Leicester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Leicester City 2–0 Watford UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–1 Leicester City neutral UK PL · Regular Season
MetricLeicester City all · 46Leicester City at home · 23Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.131.221.240.87
W / D / L12 / 16 / 187 / 7 / 914 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.261.351.151.00
Goals against / match1.481.481.411.65
Clean sheets13%13%15%9%
Failed to score20%22%30%30%
Both teams scored72%70%59%65%
Over 2.554%52%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.281.341.341.19
xG against / match1.471.271.251.34
xG difference-0.190.070.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG-0.020.01-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.261.391.431.30
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.17-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first48%61%26%22%
PPG when scoring first1.731.642.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.550.500.840.59
Came back from behind33%25%47%35%
Leads held46%44%67%40%
Minutes leading26%34%18%10%
Minutes level43%41%49%50%
Minutes trailing31%25%34%40%
First goal (min)40304853
First goal conceded (min)39443432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%39%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%56%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.370.300.300.30
Late goals against0.280.300.280.35
Style
Possession52%54%51%51%
Shots12.913.813.812.0
On target4.24.04.43.5
Shot conversion10%10%8%8%
Shots inside box59%54%58%58%
Big chances created1.72.02.12.0
Corners5.36.14.94.4
xG from set plays34%30%27%31%
Goals from headers12%13%14%9%
Pressure index12.615.310.99.5
Dominant minutes47.152.447.041.8
Pass accuracy80%82%80%79%
Fouls10.810.711.010.8
Cards1.961.742.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Leicester City

0–15'1412
16–30'86
31–45'816
46–60'88
61–75'313
76–90'1713

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Leicester City

No pressure profile yet.

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Leicester City

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-145 98%1.131.271.491.291.48
4-3-31 2%1.01.01.00.851.11

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 42% P 42%3.5Draw 27% P 27%3.1Away 31% P 31%

Double Chance

1.36Leicester or Draw 34% P 35%1.28Leicester or Watford 37% P 36%1.61Draw or Watford 29% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56% P 57%2.1No 44% P 43%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 52%1.9Under 50% P 48%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%41%41%-0.1
Draw27%28%26%-1.9
Away31%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes57%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Joshua Smith

Career
156 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.95 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 122 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.05+0.4563
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.21
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.42 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.2667
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-09 50 260 29'10
2025-12-06 · Leicester City 50 220 19'9
2025-11-29 60 270 76'8
2025-11-22 20 170 49'5
2025-11-01 30 200 28'7
2025-10-25 20 200 75'7
2025-10-18 40 250 34'8
2025-09-30 10 200 51'6
2025-09-22 · Watford 10 200 30'7
2025-08-29 · Leicester City 60 270 45'14