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Championship · Matchweek 24
MillwallMillwall
2–1
FT
Bristol CityBristol City

Momentum

– MillwallBristol City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
24

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass
Attendance
18,077

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · Gerhard Struber
Position
7 · 6
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

David Webb

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
6.1° (feels 3.2°)
Wind
4.1
Humidity
86%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

WDLLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 6 · xG 4.06–7.94 · xPts 4.2

  • D H Ipswich Town 0–0 xG 0.61–1.1 UK CHAMP
  • L A Blackburn Rovers 0–2 xG 0.66–1.86 UK CHAMP
  • L H Hull City 1–3 xG 0.58–1.92 UK CHAMP
  • D A Derby County 1–1 xG 1.1–1.34 UK CHAMP
  • W A Bristol City 1–0 xG 1.1–1.71 UK CHAMP

Bristol City

LDLWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 6.85–9.67 · xPts 5.49

  • W A West Bromwich Albion 2–1 xG 0.97–1.46 UK CHAMP
  • W H Middlesbrough 2–0 xG 0.96–2.9 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 0–1 xG 1.65–2.7 UK CHAMP
  • D H Leicester City 2–2 xG 1.55–1.5 UK CHAMP
  • L H Millwall 0–1 xG 1.71–1.1 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 26 matches since 2010

Millwall 126 draws8 Bristol City

Goals 34–26 · 2.31 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 42%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Millwall 51 draws4 Bristol City

Goals 13–12 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Millwall 30 draws2 Bristol City

Goals 8–7 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Bristol City 0–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–1 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Bristol City 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 0–2 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Bristol City 4–3 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Bristol City 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 0–1 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 0–0 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Bristol City 1–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Bristol City 3–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 48Millwall at home · 24Bristol City all · 46Bristol City away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.751.351.35
W / D / L24 / 12 / 1213 / 3 / 817 / 11 / 188 / 7 / 8
Goals for / match1.331.381.281.13
Goals against / match1.061.131.281.22
Clean sheets40%46%30%26%
Failed to score21%21%33%35%
Both teams scored48%38%46%52%
Over 2.546%50%46%44%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.501.631.181.16
xG against / match1.331.151.481.46
xG difference0.180.49-0.29-0.31
Finishing vs xG-0.17-0.260.10-0.03
xPts / match1.471.631.201.19
Points vs xPts0.280.120.150.16
Game state
Scored first52%58%39%35%
PPG when scoring first2.602.572.332.50
PPG when conceding first0.790.560.670.67
Came back from behind43%27%31%33%
Leads held86%87%77%80%
Minutes leading27%34%30%28%
Minutes level56%50%41%43%
Minutes trailing17%16%29%29%
First goal (min)44373236
First goal conceded (min)43443029
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%52%46%38%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%44%39%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.330.240.13
Late goals against0.350.460.240.17
Style
Possession48%50%49%46%
Shots12.913.512.211.7
On target4.24.64.14.2
Shot conversion10%10%10%10%
Shots inside box68%71%60%62%
Big chances created2.32.41.91.9
Corners5.76.24.85.0
xG from set plays33%36%24%29%
Goals from headers16%19%21%20%
Pressure index11.914.811.99.3
Dominant minutes44.449.743.939.0
Pass accuracy70%72%78%76%
Fouls12.610.99.510.3
Cards1.901.381.832.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Bristol City

0–15'911
16–30'1115
31–45'127
46–60'115
61–75'510
76–90'1111

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Bristol City · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.35) · stands out: as underdog +0.72

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.357
Early press (0-15, level)+0.347
Late push (76+, level)+0.213
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.134

Game state

When ahead+0.114
When level+0.397
When behind+0.514
10 min after conceding+0.077
10 min after scoring+0.565

Situations

At home+0.033
Away+0.614
3 days rest or fewer+0.372
4+ days rest+0.355

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.514
v bottom-tier opponents+0.153
As favourite+0.022
Evenly matched+0.162
As underdog+0.723

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.127
Conceded when ahead-0.294
Conceded late (76+)-0.387

Congested vs rested +0.02 · Ahead vs level -0.28 · Behind vs level +0.13

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34

Bristol City

Current: winless 2 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 54%1.481.441.41.161.42
4-2-3-18 17%1.131.251.380.971.51
3-5-25 11%0.81.01.01.521.38
3-4-1-24 9%1.00.751.51.481.44
5-3-21 2%1.01.01.00.411.82

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.4Home 39% P 39%3.2Draw 29% P 29%3.0Away 31% P 32%

Double Chance

1.36Millwall or Draw 34% P 34%1.33Millwall or Bristol City 35% P 36%1.53Draw or Bristol City 31% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51% P 52%1.9No 49% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 45%1.72Under 55% P 55%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

2.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%
3.52.25Over 41%1.57Under 59%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 30–32.5% · 800 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home39%39%39%-0.2
Draw29%30%31%+1.5
Away32%31%30%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 44%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%44%43%-1.2

David Webb

Career
296 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
2.96 (2.84 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
18.7 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.19
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 137 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.264.05-1.446
Fouls / match20.421.8-1.35
Fouls per card6.55.4+1.44 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.2445
Time added7.67.2+0.4463
First card
38' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-20 20 180 49'12
2025-12-13 10 212 32'7
2025-12-06 20 200 49'8
2025-11-29 20 150 14'12
2025-11-25 –– 28– –8
2025-11-23 30 210 36'11
2025-11-04 30 160 45'10
2025-11-01 –– 18– –10
2025-10-21 20 160 61'7
2025-09-30 20 130 13'7