KickoffDNA
0 live
Sign in
Championship · Matchweek 25
Derby CountyDerby County
1–0
FT
MiddlesbroughMID

Momentum

– Derby CountyMID –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,266

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Kim Hellberg
Position
14 · 2
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 4-2-2-2

Referee

Ruebyn Ricardo

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
4.3° (feels -0.8°)
Wind
8.2
Humidity
84%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

DWDDL 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 5.33–6.1 · xPts 7.21

  • L A Leicester City 1–2 xG 0.69–1.04 UK CHAMP
  • D A Birmingham City 1–1 xG 0.74–3.49 UK CHAMP
  • D H Portsmouth 1–1 xG 1.09–0.34 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 xG 1.47–0.12 UK CHAMP
  • D H Millwall 1–1 xG 1.34–1.1 UK CHAMP

Middlesbrough

WWLDL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 5 · xG 8.63–4.47 · xPts 9.47

  • L H Hull City 0–1 xG 1.73–0.52 UK CHAMP
  • D H Blackburn Rovers 0–0 xG 0.93–1.35 UK CHAMP
  • L A Bristol City 0–2 xG 2.9–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 3–1 xG 2.24–1.33 UK CHAMP
  • W A Charlton Athletic 2–1 xG 0.83–0.31 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 34 matches since 2000

Derby County 88 draws18 Middlesbrough

Goals 34–53 · 2.56 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 47%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 42 draws4 Middlesbrough

Goals 10–13 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 20 draws3 Middlesbrough

Goals 4–7 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Derby County 1–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 4–1 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 0–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 3–0 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Middlesbrough 2–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Middlesbrough all · 49Middlesbrough away · 25
Results
Matches46234925
Points per game1.501.571.651.52
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 722 / 15 / 1210 / 8 / 7
Goals for / match1.461.351.491.56
Goals against / match1.281.171.021.28
Clean sheets26%30%29%16%
Failed to score9%4%26%24%
Both teams scored65%65%55%64%
Over 2.552%39%53%64%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.591.55
xG against / match1.321.111.051.15
xG difference-0.090.160.530.40
Finishing vs xG0.230.07-0.100.01
xPts / match1.331.471.701.60
Points vs xPts0.170.09-0.04-0.08
Game state
Scored first54%52%53%52%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.462.31
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.670.64
Came back from behind35%46%46%50%
Leads held69%71%79%71%
Minutes leading30%29%32%31%
Minutes level46%46%49%47%
Minutes trailing24%25%19%22%
First goal (min)40453736
First goal conceded (min)40364645
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%51%49%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%55%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.220.28
Late goals against0.300.260.290.28
Style
Possession44%48%59%58%
Shots11.011.916.215.3
On target3.63.74.84.5
Shot conversion13%11%9%10%
Shots inside box70%65%64%65%
Big chances created2.22.32.42.5
Corners4.55.56.85.8
xG from set plays39%44%24%18%
Goals from headers28%32%12%10%
Pressure index10.111.619.718.4
Dominant minutes39.945.763.163.2
Pass accuracy73%77%84%84%
Fouls12.311.99.39.5
Cards2.632.301.612.12

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Middlesbrough

0–15'97
16–30'1010
31–45'175
46–60'136
61–75'138
76–90'1113

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+0.294

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.237
When behind+1.004
10 min after conceding+0.276
10 min after scoring+0.697

Situations

At home+0.464
Away+0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.822
4+ days rest+0.205

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.415
v bottom-tier opponents+0.282
As favourite+0.435
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.116
Conceded late (76+)-0.417

Congested vs rested +0.62 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-114 29%1.431.140.931.521.11
4-2-3-111 22%2.452.00.731.541.13
4-2-2-28 16%0.750.630.881.921.08
4-4-25 10%2.42.41.61.131.07
4-1-4-13 6%1.672.00.672.480.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.8Home 34% P 32%3.25Draw 29% P 29%2.5Away 38% P 39%

Double Chance

1.53Derby or Draw 31% P 31%1.33Derby or Middlesbrough 35% P 35%1.4Draw or Middlesbrough 34% P 34%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 51%1.83No 50% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 44%1.66Under 57% P 56%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 37.5–40% · 556 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home32%31%31%-0.2
Draw29%30%31%+1.5
Away39%39%38%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 44%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Ruebyn Ricardo

Career
36 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.47 (4.36 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 26 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.384.05+2.4198
Fouls / match22.621.8+0.67
Fouls per card4.55.4-1.52 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.3435
Time added7.57.2+0.3357
First card
34' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-29 –– 21– –6
2025-12-20 81 311 28'12
2025-12-13 70 300 17'8
2025-11-26 30 180 41'6
2025-11-08 40 240 34'8
2025-11-01 60 250 50'10
2025-10-18 111 211 16'12
2025-10-04 30 140 36'6
2025-10-01 40 230 74'6
2025-09-20 50 150 17'7