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Championship · Matchweek 25
Hull CityHull City
0–1
FT
Stoke CityStoke City

Momentum

– Hull CityStoke City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
MKM Stadium, Hull
Capacity
25,586
Surface
grass
Attendance
23,152

Teams

Coaches
Sergej Jakirović · Mark Robins
Position
4 · 10
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Craig Pawson

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
4.4° (feels -0.8°)
Wind
8.8
Humidity
71%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Hull City

WWWDW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 9 GA 3 · xG 8.5–5.62 · xPts 8.54

  • W A Middlesbrough 1–0 xG 0.52–1.73 UK CHAMP
  • D A Sheffield Wednesday 2–2 xG 1.42–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • W H West Bromwich Albion 1–0 xG 1.47–1.13 UK CHAMP
  • W A Millwall 3–1 xG 1.92–0.58 UK CHAMP
  • W H Wrexham 2–0 xG 3.16–1.22 UK CHAMP

Stoke City

LWLDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 3 GA 5 · xG 3.79–6.52 · xPts 5.03

  • L H Sheffield United 1–2 xG 0.77–2.63 UK CHAMP
  • D H Preston North End 0–0 xG 1.02–0.61 UK CHAMP
  • L A Watford 0–1 xG 0.83–1.1 UK CHAMP
  • W H Swansea City 2–1 xG 0.63–1.1 UK CHAMP
  • L A Ipswich Town 0–1 xG 0.54–1.07 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 30 matches since 2005

Hull City 77 draws16 Stoke City

Goals 26–43 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 37%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Hull City 31 draws6 Stoke City

Goals 9–15 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Hull City 20 draws3 Stoke City

Goals 6–7 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Hull City 0–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 1–2 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Hull City 1–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 1–3 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Hull City 0–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 1–3 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Hull City 0–3 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Hull City 0–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 2–0 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricHull City all · 49Hull City at home · 25Stoke City all · 46Stoke City away · 23
Results
Matches49254623
Points per game1.631.681.200.96
W / D / L23 / 11 / 1512 / 6 / 715 / 10 / 216 / 4 / 13
Goals for / match1.491.441.110.74
Goals against / match1.351.361.221.22
Clean sheets29%28%28%30%
Failed to score18%24%37%52%
Both teams scored61%60%44%26%
Over 2.561%56%44%30%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.371.461.241.03
xG against / match1.661.421.431.67
xG difference-0.290.04-0.19-0.63
Finishing vs xG0.12-0.02-0.13-0.30
xPts / match1.251.411.281.01
Points vs xPts0.380.27-0.08-0.05
Game state
Scored first57%48%44%35%
PPG when scoring first2.182.422.252.38
PPG when conceding first0.881.000.270.08
Came back from behind35%36%22%7%
Leads held72%80%71%75%
Minutes leading30%28%24%16%
Minutes level53%54%50%51%
Minutes trailing17%18%27%32%
First goal (min)32303742
First goal conceded (min)40384440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half45%42%55%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%41%62%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.270.200.150.04
Late goals against0.310.240.350.35
Style
Possession45%47%52%51%
Shots11.111.211.29.8
On target4.13.83.82.8
Shot conversion13%13%10%8%
Shots inside box68%68%65%62%
Big chances created2.22.11.81.4
Corners4.44.26.05.6
xG from set plays21%27%28%19%
Goals from headers14%9%16%19%
Pressure index9.311.013.310.2
Dominant minutes39.846.752.748.2
Pass accuracy72%73%78%78%
Fouls11.210.810.410.2
Cards2.552.082.302.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hull City

0–15'117
16–30'1413
31–45'1512
46–60'910
61–75'119
76–90'1315

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hull City · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.42) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.424
Early press (0-15, level)-0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.503

Game state

When ahead-0.363
When level-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.133

Situations

At home-0.452
Away-0.392
4+ days rest-0.424

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.393
As underdog-0.424

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.364
Conceded when ahead+0.583
Conceded late (76+)+0.274

Ahead vs level +0.08 · Behind vs level -0.08

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Hull City

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-136 74%1.641.611.441.491.76
3-4-2-16 12%1.51.01.171.091.37
4-4-22 4%3.01.50.51.091.08
3-4-1-22 4%0.51.52.01.251.52
4-3-31 2%1.00.00.00.561.69

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 42% P 42%3.2Draw 29% P 28%3.25Away 29% P 30%

Double Chance

1.33Hull or Draw 36% P 35%1.36Hull or Stoke 35% P 36%1.61Draw or Stoke 29% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.571 59%2.252 41%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51% P 52%1.9No 49% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 46%1.72Under 55% P 54%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 24%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%41%42%+0.5
Draw28%30%27%-2.4
Away30%29%31%+1.9

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Craig Pawson

Career
441 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
3.82 (3.68 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
20.5 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 9 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 5.11 cards, 22.9 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-27 20 160 67'7
2025-12-13 30 230 45'11
2025-12-02 10 160 90'11
2025-11-29 –– 10– –7
2025-11-08 30 260 36'16
2025-10-26 20 170 58'12
2025-10-18 10 170 90'11
2025-09-27 40 241 55'12
2025-09-13 30 350 11'7
2025-08-31 –– 20– –10