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Championship · Matchweek 25
SouthamptonSouthampton
0–0
FT
MillwallMillwall

Momentum

– SouthamptonMillwall –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Capacity
32,384
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,182

Teams

Coaches
Tonda Eckert · Alex Neil
Position
13 · 5
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Tom Nield

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
6.3° (feels 3.7°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
84%

Where to watch · 268

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Southampton

WLDLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 8 · xG 7.47–7.71 · xPts 6.84

  • D A Birmingham City 1–1 xG 1.53–1.61 UK CHAMP
  • L A Oxford United 1–2 xG 1.72–1.43 UK CHAMP
  • D H Coventry City 1–1 xG 1.66–0.73 UK CHAMP
  • L A Norwich City 1–2 xG 1.76–1.97 UK CHAMP
  • W H West Bromwich Albion 3–2 xG 0.79–1.97 UK CHAMP

Millwall

DLLDW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 4.03–7.37 · xPts 4.53

  • W H Bristol City 2–1 xG 1.07–1.14 UK CHAMP
  • D H Ipswich Town 0–0 xG 0.61–1.1 UK CHAMP
  • L A Blackburn Rovers 0–2 xG 0.66–1.86 UK CHAMP
  • L H Hull City 1–3 xG 0.58–1.92 UK CHAMP
  • D A Derby County 1–1 xG 1.1–1.34 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 11 matches since 2005

Southampton 62 draws3 Millwall

Goals 20–12 · 2.91 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 46%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Southampton 52 draws3 Millwall

Goals 18–12 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Southampton 21 draws2 Millwall

Goals 9–6 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Southampton 5–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Southampton 0–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 3–2 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Southampton 1–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 0–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–3 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Southampton 2–3 Millwall UK FA Cup · 4th Round Replays
  • D Millwall 1–1 Southampton UK FA Cup · 4th Round
  • W Southampton 1–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 2–0 Millwall neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricSouthampton all · 48Southampton at home · 24Millwall all · 48Millwall away · 24
Results
Matches48244824
Points per game1.751.961.751.75
W / D / L23 / 15 / 1013 / 8 / 324 / 12 / 1211 / 9 / 4
Goals for / match1.751.671.331.29
Goals against / match1.190.831.061.00
Clean sheets25%42%40%33%
Failed to score12%17%21%21%
Both teams scored71%54%48%58%
Over 2.562%54%46%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.781.501.38
xG against / match1.331.091.331.51
xG difference0.380.690.18-0.13
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.11-0.17-0.08
xPts / match1.591.781.471.30
Points vs xPts0.160.180.280.45
Game state
Scored first52%50%52%46%
PPG when scoring first2.242.672.602.64
PPG when conceding first1.261.330.791.00
Came back from behind54%67%43%60%
Leads held72%81%86%85%
Minutes leading34%36%27%20%
Minutes level49%48%56%61%
Minutes trailing18%16%17%18%
First goal (min)40394451
First goal conceded (min)44404342
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%49%61%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%55%67%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.250.350.38
Late goals against0.270.170.350.25
Style
Possession56%58%48%46%
Shots14.415.812.912.3
On target5.35.54.23.8
Shot conversion12%11%10%10%
Shots inside box68%66%68%65%
Big chances created2.92.92.32.2
Corners5.86.55.75.2
xG from set plays28%26%33%30%
Goals from headers22%25%16%13%
Pressure index17.921.111.99.1
Dominant minutes59.063.844.439.2
Pass accuracy83%84%70%69%
Fouls10.79.812.614.4
Cards1.881.631.902.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Southampton

0–15'135
16–30'178
31–45'79
46–60'1710
61–75'1212
76–90'1713

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Southampton · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.267
Late push (76+, level)+0.393

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.037
When behind+0.622
10 min after conceding-0.187
10 min after scoring+0.297

Situations

At home+0.034
Away+0.363
3 days rest or fewer+0.252
4+ days rest+0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.234
v bottom-tier opponents+0.123
As favourite+0.206

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead+0.166
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level +0.16 · Behind vs level +0.59

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Southampton

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 2 · scoring 8 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-120 42%2.051.950.951.521.23
3-4-2-117 35%1.181.651.651.951.44
3-4-34 8%1.51.51.51.071.7
4-1-4-12 4%3.01.50.51.392.18
5-4-12 4%2.01.50.02.420.33

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 50% P 49%3.5Draw 27% P 27%4.0Away 24% P 24%

Double Chance

1.18Southampton or Draw 39% P 38%1.25Southampton or Millwall 37% P 37%2.0Draw or Millwall 23% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 52%2.0No 46% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 49%1.9Under 50% P 51%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.612 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home49%49%47%-1.9
Draw27%28%29%+1.7
Away24%24%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.549%49%50%+1.3

Tom Nield

Career
79 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.86 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.114.05+0.1057
Fouls / match23.321.8+1.27
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.29 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.140.17-0.4720
Time added7.67.2+0.4463
First card
37' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-20 30 231 35'8
2025-12-06 30 170 8'10
2025-11-29 30 240 32'6
2025-11-25 20 260 31'10
2025-11-08 40 200 62'11
2025-11-01 10 210 23'7
2025-10-18 50 250 18'4
2025-09-27 60 250 8'8
2025-09-13 20 280 7'7
2025-08-23 60 370 12'6