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Championship · Matchweek 25
WatfordWatford
3–0
FT
Birmingham CityBRC

Momentum

– WatfordBRC –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
20,816

Teams

Coaches
Javier Gracia Carlos · Chris Davies
Position
6 · 15
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Lewis Smith

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
5.2° (feels 1.5°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

DDWWW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 6.43–4.32 · xPts 7.95

  • W A Norwich City 1–0 xG 0.5–0.9 UK CHAMP
  • W A Leicester City 2–1 xG 1.19–0.53 UK CHAMP
  • W H Stoke City 1–0 xG 1.1–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • D A Wrexham 2–2 xG 0.9–1.42 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 xG 2.73–0.63 UK CHAMP

Birmingham City

LDLDD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 7.66–7.45 · xPts 6.66

  • D H Southampton 1–1 xG 1.61–1.53 UK CHAMP
  • D H Derby County 1–1 xG 3.49–0.74 UK CHAMP
  • L A Sheffield United 0–3 xG 0.74–2.41 UK CHAMP
  • D H Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.37–1.07 UK CHAMP
  • L A Queens Park Rangers 1–2 xG 0.45–1.71 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 18 matches since 2008

Watford 112 draws5 Birmingham City

Goals 29–14 · 2.39 per match · BTTS 28% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 71 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 17–5 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 40 draws1 Birmingham City

Goals 10–2 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Watford 3–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 2–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 3–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 1–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 3–0 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–0 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 2–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Birmingham City all · 46Birmingham City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.390.87
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 617 / 13 / 165 / 5 / 13
Goals for / match1.151.301.240.78
Goals against / match1.411.171.221.48
Clean sheets15%22%22%13%
Failed to score30%30%24%39%
Both teams scored59%52%56%48%
Over 2.548%44%46%44%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.491.07
xG against / match1.251.151.141.27
xG difference0.100.340.35-0.21
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.19-0.25-0.28
xPts / match1.431.571.571.23
Points vs xPts-0.200.04-0.18-0.36
Game state
Scored first26%30%50%22%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.352.40
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.410.44
Came back from behind47%60%33%32%
Leads held67%91%71%83%
Minutes leading18%25%28%11%
Minutes level49%48%42%38%
Minutes trailing34%27%31%51%
First goal (min)48423952
First goal conceded (min)34363527
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%49%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%39%32%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.240.30
Late goals against0.280.220.150.13
Style
Possession51%52%54%52%
Shots13.815.713.69.9
On target4.45.44.12.6
Shot conversion8%8%9%8%
Shots inside box58%57%64%67%
Big chances created2.12.42.41.8
Corners4.95.45.85.0
xG from set plays27%23%30%33%
Goals from headers14%17%21%17%
Pressure index10.912.414.410.4
Dominant minutes47.052.254.344.6
Pass accuracy80%81%77%77%
Fouls11.011.111.712.3
Cards2.151.872.112.22

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.2Home 43% P 42%3.3Draw 28% P 28%3.25Away 29% P 30%

Double Chance

1.33Watford or Draw 36% P 35%1.33Watford or Birmingham 36% P 36%1.66Draw or Birmingham 29% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.571 59%2.252 41%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 53%2.0No 46% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 45%1.83Under 50% P 55%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%41%41%-0.1
Draw28%28%26%-1.9
Away30%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Lewis Smith

Career
75 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
3.67 (3.57 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.8 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 51 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.94.05-0.2841
Fouls / match20.821.8-1.01
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.3043
Time added8.27.2+1.1488
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-29 20 160 37'6
2025-12-15 50 180 56'8
2025-12-06 20 140 49'8
2025-11-29 40 180 57'10
2025-11-25 40 220 22'7
2025-11-08 20 130 45'7
2025-11-04 –– 25– –6
2025-10-21 · Birmingham City 70 220 10'9
2025-10-04 · Watford 70 150 5'11
2025-10-01 40 180 17'8