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Championship · Matchweek 27
Swansea CitySwansea City
1–1
FT
Birmingham CityBRC

Momentum

– Swansea CityBRC –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
27

Venue

Stadium
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Capacity
20,827
Surface
grass
Attendance
16,753

Teams

Coaches
Vítor Matos · Chris Davies
Position
17 · 14
Formation
4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Tom Nield

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
7.3° (feels 5.2°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
90%

Where to watch · 221

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Swansea City

LWWLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 5 · xG 6.74–7.57 · xPts 6.38

  • D H West Bromwich Albion 2–2 lost on pens None–None xG 2.52–1.8 UK FA Cup
  • L A Millwall 1–2 xG 1.06–2.38 UK CHAMP
  • W H West Bromwich Albion 1–0 xG 0.92–1.6 UK CHAMP
  • W A Oxford United 1–0 xG 0.81–0.53 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 0–1 xG 1.43–1.26 UK CHAMP

Birmingham City

DDLWW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 9 · xG 7.35–6.28 · xPts 6.88

  • W A Cambridge United 3–2 xG 0.9–1.24 UK FA Cup
  • W H Coventry City 3–2 xG 0.85–1.31 UK CHAMP
  • L A Watford 0–3 xG 0.49–1.46 UK CHAMP
  • D H Southampton 1–1 xG 1.61–1.53 UK CHAMP
  • D H Derby County 1–1 xG 3.49–0.74 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 17 matches since 2008

Swansea City 39 draws5 Birmingham City

Goals 23–22 · 2.65 per match · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Swansea City 06 draws4 Birmingham City

Goals 10–14 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Swansea City 03 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 7–9 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Swansea City 1–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 1–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 2–2 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Swansea City 1–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 3–4 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 2–2 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Swansea City 0–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 2–1 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 1–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Swansea City 0–0 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricSwansea City all · 46Swansea City at home · 23Birmingham City all · 46Birmingham City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.391.701.390.87
W / D / L18 / 10 / 1811 / 6 / 617 / 13 / 165 / 5 / 13
Goals for / match1.241.481.240.78
Goals against / match1.281.171.221.48
Clean sheets26%30%22%13%
Failed to score22%9%24%39%
Both teams scored54%61%56%48%
Over 2.550%52%46%44%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.221.351.491.07
xG against / match1.371.371.141.27
xG difference-0.15-0.020.35-0.21
Finishing vs xG0.020.13-0.25-0.28
xPts / match1.281.361.571.23
Points vs xPts0.120.34-0.18-0.36
Game state
Scored first48%61%50%22%
PPG when scoring first2.362.362.352.40
PPG when conceding first0.480.670.410.44
Came back from behind28%40%33%32%
Leads held72%69%71%83%
Minutes leading25%28%28%11%
Minutes level48%48%42%38%
Minutes trailing27%23%31%51%
First goal (min)46493952
First goal conceded (min)40373527
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half65%65%49%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%44%39%32%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.430.240.30
Late goals against0.300.300.150.13
Style
Possession55%56%54%52%
Shots12.313.613.69.9
On target3.93.84.12.6
Shot conversion10%11%9%8%
Shots inside box58%60%64%67%
Big chances created1.71.72.41.8
Corners4.55.15.85.0
xG from set plays36%36%30%33%
Goals from headers13%16%21%17%
Pressure index12.815.214.410.4
Dominant minutes51.958.054.344.6
Pass accuracy79%80%77%77%
Fouls9.89.111.712.3
Cards2.001.912.112.22

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Swansea City

0–15'66
16–30'86
31–45'616
46–60'1011
61–75'116
76–90'1614

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Swansea City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)+0.097
Late push (76+, level)-0.222

Game state

When ahead+0.214
When level-0.097
When behind-0.102
10 min after conceding-0.093
10 min after scoring+0.355

Situations

At home-0.024
Away+0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.092
4+ days rest+0.095

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.083
v bottom-tier opponents+0.134
As favourite+0.002
Evenly matched+0.114

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.017
Conceded when ahead-0.074
Conceded late (76+)-0.237

Congested vs rested -0.18 · Ahead vs level +0.30 · Behind vs level -0.01

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Swansea City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-122 48%1.321.231.411.191.3
4-1-4-111 24%1.821.360.731.351.38
4-3-37 15%1.431.141.141.131.33
3-4-2-12 4%0.01.03.00.80.88
4-5-11 2%1.02.02.02.283.13

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.0h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 35%3.2Draw 30% P 30%2.7Away 35% P 35%

Double Chance

1.4Swansea or Draw 34% P 32%1.36Swansea or Birmingham 35% P 35%1.5Draw or Birmingham 32% P 33%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51% P 52%1.9No 49% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 44%1.72Under 55% P 56%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 35–37.5% · 691 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%34%34%+0.5
Draw30%30%27%-2.5
Away35%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Tom Nield

Career
79 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.86 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.114.05+0.1057
Fouls / match23.321.8+1.27
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.29 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.140.17-0.4720
Time added7.67.2+0.4463
First card
37' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-10 50 320 34'9
2026-01-01 40 170 30'8
2025-12-20 30 231 35'8
2025-12-06 30 170 8'10
2025-11-29 · Swansea City 30 240 32'6
2025-11-25 20 260 31'10
2025-11-08 40 200 62'11
2025-11-01 10 210 23'7
2025-10-18 50 250 18'4
2025-09-27 60 250 8'8