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Championship · Matchweek 27
WatfordWatford
0–2
FT
MillwallMillwall

Momentum

– WatfordMillwall –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
27

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
19,074

Teams

Coaches
Javier Gracia Carlos · Alex Neil
Position
6 · 5
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Ruebyn Ricardo

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
9.8° (feels 8.9°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
85%

Where to watch · 179

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

WWWWL 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 5.08–5.08 · xPts 7.02

  • L A Bristol City 1–5 xG 0.82–2.32 UK FA Cup
  • W H Birmingham City 3–0 xG 1.46–0.49 UK CHAMP
  • W A Norwich City 1–0 xG 0.5–0.9 UK CHAMP
  • W A Leicester City 2–1 xG 1.19–0.53 UK CHAMP
  • W H Stoke City 1–0 xG 1.1–0.83 UK CHAMP

Millwall

DWDWL 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 6.53–7.44 · xPts 6.45

  • L A Burnley 1–5 xG 1.07–3.08 UK FA Cup
  • W H Swansea City 2–1 xG 2.38–1.06 UK CHAMP
  • D A Southampton 0–0 xG 1.4–1.06 UK CHAMP
  • W H Bristol City 2–1 xG 1.07–1.14 UK CHAMP
  • D H Ipswich Town 0–0 xG 0.61–1.1 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 23 matches since 2005

Watford 95 draws9 Millwall

Goals 29–24 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 39%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 22 draws6 Millwall

Goals 7–15 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 10 draws4 Millwall

Goals 4–8 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Watford 0–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–3 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 2–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 0–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 3–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–0 Millwall neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 0–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Millwall all · 48Millwall away · 24
Results
Matches46234824
Points per game1.241.611.751.75
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 624 / 12 / 1211 / 9 / 4
Goals for / match1.151.301.331.29
Goals against / match1.411.171.061.00
Clean sheets15%22%40%33%
Failed to score30%30%21%21%
Both teams scored59%52%48%58%
Over 2.548%44%46%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.501.38
xG against / match1.251.151.331.51
xG difference0.100.340.18-0.13
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.19-0.17-0.08
xPts / match1.431.571.471.30
Points vs xPts-0.200.040.280.45
Game state
Scored first26%30%52%46%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.602.64
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.791.00
Came back from behind47%60%43%60%
Leads held67%91%86%85%
Minutes leading18%25%27%20%
Minutes level49%48%56%61%
Minutes trailing34%27%17%18%
First goal (min)48424451
First goal conceded (min)34364342
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%61%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%67%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.350.38
Late goals against0.280.220.350.25
Style
Possession51%52%48%46%
Shots13.815.712.912.3
On target4.45.44.23.8
Shot conversion8%8%10%10%
Shots inside box58%57%68%65%
Big chances created2.12.42.32.2
Corners4.95.45.75.2
xG from set plays27%23%33%30%
Goals from headers14%17%16%13%
Pressure index10.912.411.99.1
Dominant minutes47.052.244.439.2
Pass accuracy80%81%70%69%
Fouls11.011.112.614.4
Cards2.151.871.902.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.15Home 44% P 45%3.3Draw 29% P 27%3.4Away 28% P 28%

Double Chance

1.28Watford or Draw 37% P 36%1.33Watford or Millwall 36% P 37%1.8Draw or Millwall 27% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51% P 53%1.9No 49% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home45%44%43%-0.3
Draw27%28%30%+2.4
Away28%29%26%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Ruebyn Ricardo

Career
36 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.47 (4.36 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 26 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.384.05+2.4198
Fouls / match22.621.8+0.67
Fouls per card4.55.4-1.52 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.3435
Time added7.57.2+0.3357
First card
34' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-01 40 210 59'8
2025-12-29 –– 21– –6
2025-12-20 81 311 28'12
2025-12-13 70 300 17'8
2025-11-26 30 180 41'6
2025-11-08 40 240 34'8
2025-11-01 60 250 50'10
2025-10-18 111 211 16'12
2025-10-04 30 140 36'6
2025-10-01 40 230 74'6