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Championship · Matchweek 28
Charlton AthleticCHA
1–2
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– CHADerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
The Valley, London
Capacity
27,111
Surface
grass
Attendance
16,266

Teams

Coaches
Nathan Jones · John Eustace
Position
18 · 12
Formation
3-1-4-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

James Linington

Weather

Conditions
heavy intensity rain
Temperature
8.8° (feels 4.8°)
Wind
9.3
Humidity
85%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Charlton Athletic

LDDLW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 10 · xG 6.44–9.29 · xPts 5.98

  • W H Sheffield United 1–0 xG 1.11–0.62 UK CHAMP
  • L H Chelsea 1–5 xG 1.11–4.1 UK FA Cup
  • D A Blackburn Rovers 2–2 xG 1.47–1.37 UK CHAMP
  • D H Coventry City 1–1 xG 1.43–2.31 UK CHAMP
  • L A Portsmouth 1–2 xG 1.32–0.89 UK CHAMP

Derby County

LWLLW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 4.48–6.78 · xPts 5.38

  • W A Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.36–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • L H Leeds United 1–3 xG 0.68–2.51 UK FA Cup
  • L H Wrexham 1–2 xG 1.19–1.18 UK CHAMP
  • W H Middlesbrough 1–0 xG 0.55–1.22 UK CHAMP
  • L A Leicester City 1–2 xG 0.69–1.04 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 19 matches since 2000

Charlton Athletic 56 draws8 Derby County

Goals 23–28 · 2.68 per match · BTTS 63% · over 2.5 53%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Charlton Athletic 32 draws5 Derby County

Goals 12–15 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Charlton Athletic 21 draws2 Derby County

Goals 8–6 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Charlton Athletic 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Charlton Athletic 1–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–1 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Charlton Athletic 3–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Charlton Athletic 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–0 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Charlton Athletic 3–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 3–0 Charlton Athletic neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricCharlton Athletic all · 46Charlton Athletic at home · 23Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.151.351.501.43
W / D / L13 / 14 / 199 / 4 / 1020 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match0.961.001.461.57
Goals against / match1.261.131.281.39
Clean sheets28%35%26%22%
Failed to score22%17%9%13%
Both teams scored54%52%65%65%
Over 2.539%44%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.151.271.231.18
xG against / match1.551.341.321.54
xG difference-0.40-0.08-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.270.230.38
xPts / match1.191.381.331.18
Points vs xPts-0.03-0.030.170.25
Game state
Scored first48%56%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.052.232.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.270.110.620.50
Came back from behind24%9%35%23%
Leads held59%69%69%67%
Minutes leading16%18%30%32%
Minutes level56%51%46%46%
Minutes trailing28%31%24%22%
First goal (min)56524035
First goal conceded (min)43344045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half66%61%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%35%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.300.260.26
Late goals against0.330.040.300.35
Style
Possession42%45%44%40%
Shots11.012.811.010.0
On target3.54.13.63.4
Shot conversion9%8%13%16%
Shots inside box68%69%70%77%
Big chances created1.92.12.22.2
Corners4.15.14.53.6
xG from set plays39%36%39%33%
Goals from headers19%17%28%25%
Pressure index7.09.310.18.6
Dominant minutes34.441.339.934.2
Pass accuracy70%71%73%70%
Fouls12.011.312.312.8
Cards2.202.302.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Charlton Athletic

0–15'28
16–30'58
31–45'811
46–60'78
61–75'108
76–90'1215

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Charlton Athletic · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.11) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.117
Early press (0-15, level)+0.437
Late push (76+, level)-0.354

Game state

When ahead-0.333
When level-0.027
When behind-0.113
10 min after conceding-0.574
10 min after scoring+0.044

Situations

At home-0.034
Away-0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.342
4+ days rest-0.225

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.372
v bottom-tier opponents+0.154
Evenly matched+0.182
As underdog-0.304

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.447
Conceded when ahead+0.363
Conceded late (76+)+0.096

Congested vs rested +0.56 · Ahead vs level -0.30 · Behind vs level -0.09

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Charlton Athletic

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 4 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-1-4-214 30%0.860.861.641.081.41
3-5-210 22%1.10.91.01.031.55
3-4-2-16 13%0.830.831.51.421.54
3-4-1-25 11%1.00.61.01.021.72
4-2-3-13 6%1.331.01.331.261.01

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.55Home 37% P 37%3.0Draw 31% P 31%3.0Away 31% P 32%

Double Chance

1.4Charlton or Draw 33% P 34%1.36Charlton or Derby 34% P 34%1.44Draw or Derby 32% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 46% P 48%1.72No 54% P 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.5Over 38% P 38%1.53Under 62% P 62%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 30–32.5% · 302 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home37%37%38%+1.6
Draw31%32%31%-0.7
Away32%32%31%-0.8

In those fixtures: 2.2 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 39%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes48%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 37.5–40% · 1,310 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.538%39%39%+0.7

James Linington

Career
298 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.82 (3.69 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
20.7 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 103 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.324.05+0.4969
Fouls / match22.021.8+0.11
Fouls per card5.15.4-0.61 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.17+0.6280
Time added7.27.2-0.0247
First card
33' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 45%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-10 20 200 87'5
2026-01-04 41 210 36'12
2026-01-01 70 220 2'7
2025-12-26 30 230 62'7
2025-12-13 30 190 43'6
2025-12-10 50 251 9'7
2025-11-29 · Derby County 20 220 22'9
2025-11-22 10 170 90'5
2025-11-04 50 190 11'6
2025-10-25 30 150 30'7