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Championship · Matchweek 28
Stoke CityStoke City
1–2
FT
MiddlesbroughMID

Momentum

– Stoke CityMID –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke
Capacity
30,089
Surface
grass
Attendance
20,992

Teams

Coaches
Mark Robins · Kim Hellberg
Position
7 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Adam Herczeg

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
8.3° (feels 6.7°)
Wind
2.7
Humidity
95%

Where to watch · 261

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Stoke City

LWWWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 2 · xG 7.39–6.88 · xPts 7.43

  • D H Queens Park Rangers 0–0 xG 0.65–0.41 UK CHAMP
  • W H Coventry City 1–0 xG 2.6–1.55 UK FA Cup
  • W A Norwich City 2–0 xG 1.59–0.62 UK CHAMP
  • W A Hull City 1–0 xG 1.79–1.67 UK CHAMP
  • L H Sheffield United 1–2 xG 0.77–2.63 UK CHAMP

Middlesbrough

LLWLW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 6.99–5.49 · xPts 8.03

  • W A West Bromwich Albion 3–2 xG 0.8–0.94 UK CHAMP
  • L A Fulham 1–3 xG 1.28–2.33 UK FA Cup
  • W H Southampton 4–0 xG 1.96–1.15 UK CHAMP
  • L A Derby County 0–1 xG 1.22–0.55 UK CHAMP
  • L H Hull City 0–1 xG 1.73–0.52 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 20 matches since 2008

Stoke City 56 draws9 Middlesbrough

Goals 17–24 · 2.05 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 35%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Stoke City 24 draws4 Middlesbrough

Goals 10–13 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Stoke City 11 draws3 Middlesbrough

Goals 4–7 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Stoke City 1–2 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Middlesbrough 0–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–3 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 2–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 0–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Middlesbrough 1–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 2–2 Middlesbrough neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 3–1 Stoke City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Middlesbrough neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricStoke City all · 46Stoke City at home · 23Middlesbrough all · 49Middlesbrough away · 25
Results
Matches46234925
Points per game1.201.431.651.52
W / D / L15 / 10 / 219 / 6 / 822 / 15 / 1210 / 8 / 7
Goals for / match1.111.481.491.56
Goals against / match1.221.221.021.28
Clean sheets28%26%29%16%
Failed to score37%22%26%24%
Both teams scored44%61%55%64%
Over 2.544%56%53%64%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.241.441.591.55
xG against / match1.431.191.051.15
xG difference-0.190.260.530.40
Finishing vs xG-0.130.03-0.100.01
xPts / match1.281.551.701.60
Points vs xPts-0.08-0.12-0.04-0.08
Game state
Scored first44%52%53%52%
PPG when scoring first2.252.172.462.31
PPG when conceding first0.270.560.670.64
Came back from behind22%38%46%50%
Leads held71%69%79%71%
Minutes leading24%31%32%31%
Minutes level50%48%49%47%
Minutes trailing27%21%19%22%
First goal (min)37343736
First goal conceded (min)44474645
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%50%51%49%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%75%55%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.150.260.220.28
Late goals against0.350.350.290.28
Style
Possession52%53%59%58%
Shots11.212.716.215.3
On target3.84.74.84.5
Shot conversion10%12%9%10%
Shots inside box65%67%64%65%
Big chances created1.82.12.42.5
Corners6.06.46.85.8
xG from set plays28%34%24%18%
Goals from headers16%15%12%10%
Pressure index13.316.319.718.4
Dominant minutes52.757.363.163.2
Pass accuracy78%79%84%84%
Fouls10.410.69.39.5
Cards2.302.261.612.12

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Middlesbrough

0–15'97
16–30'1010
31–45'175
46–60'136
61–75'138
76–90'1113

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+0.294

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.237
When behind+1.004
10 min after conceding+0.276
10 min after scoring+0.697

Situations

At home+0.464
Away+0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.822
4+ days rest+0.205

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.415
v bottom-tier opponents+0.282
As favourite+0.435
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.116
Conceded late (76+)-0.417

Congested vs rested +0.61 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-114 29%1.431.140.931.521.11
4-2-3-111 22%2.452.00.731.541.13
4-2-2-28 16%0.750.630.881.921.08
4-4-25 10%2.42.41.61.131.07
3-4-1-23 6%1.01.672.670.881.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.8Home 33% P 33%3.3Draw 28% P 29%2.45Away 38% P 39%

Double Chance

1.53Stoke or Draw 31% P 31%1.33Stoke or Middlesbrough 35% P 36%1.4Draw or Middlesbrough 34% P 34%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 54%2.0No 46% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home33%34%31%-2.8
Draw29%28%28%-0.1
Away39%39%42%+3.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Adam Herczeg

Career
41 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.66 (3.54 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.05-0.2643
Fouls / match22.321.8+0.38
Fouls per card5.75.4+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4222
Time added7.97.2+0.7874
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-10 10 180 81'5
2025-12-29 60 240 13'6
2025-12-20 21 210 26'11
2025-12-10 · Stoke City 20 220 79'5
2025-12-01 50 210 20'6
2025-11-26 30 200 22'10
2025-11-04 · Middlesbrough 71 291 49'9
2025-10-25 40 250 45'8
2025-10-18 60 190 33'12
2025-10-04 20 120 45'11