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Championship · Matchweek 28
WatfordWatford
1–1
FT
PortsmouthPortsmouth

Momentum

– WatfordPortsmouth –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
17,577

Teams

Coaches
Javier Gracia Carlos · John Mousinho
Position
8 · 22
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Ben Toner

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
9.0° (feels 5.8°)
Wind
6.7
Humidity
92%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

WWWLL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 8 · xG 4.4–5.62 · xPts 6.08

  • L H Millwall 0–2 xG 0.42–1.37 UK CHAMP
  • L A Bristol City 1–5 xG 0.82–2.32 UK FA Cup
  • W H Birmingham City 3–0 xG 1.46–0.49 UK CHAMP
  • W A Norwich City 1–0 xG 0.5–0.9 UK CHAMP
  • W A Leicester City 2–1 xG 1.19–0.53 UK CHAMP

Portsmouth

DWLLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 4.64–6.94 · xPts 5.44

  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 xG 1.83–0.45 UK CHAMP
  • L H Arsenal 1–4 xG 1.04–2.8 UK FA Cup
  • L A Bristol City 0–5 xG 0.34–1.67 UK CHAMP
  • W H Charlton Athletic 2–1 xG 0.89–1.32 UK CHAMP
  • D H Queens Park Rangers 1–1 xG 0.54–0.7 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 10 matches since 2006

Watford 42 draws4 Portsmouth

Goals 17–14 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 42 draws4 Portsmouth

Goals 17–14 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 12 draws2 Portsmouth

Goals 5–7 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Watford 1–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Portsmouth 2–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–0 Portsmouth neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 3–0 Portsmouth neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 3–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 4–2 Portsmouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 2–1 Watford UK PL · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Portsmouth all · 46Portsmouth away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.201.09
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 614 / 13 / 196 / 7 / 10
Goals for / match1.151.301.071.04
Goals against / match1.411.171.391.78
Clean sheets15%22%22%17%
Failed to score30%30%28%26%
Both teams scored59%52%54%61%
Over 2.548%44%44%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.180.89
xG against / match1.251.151.241.37
xG difference0.100.34-0.06-0.47
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.19-0.110.15
xPts / match1.431.571.361.11
Points vs xPts-0.200.04-0.16-0.02
Game state
Scored first26%30%46%44%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.192.10
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.300.25
Came back from behind47%60%27%23%
Leads held67%91%64%60%
Minutes leading18%25%18%14%
Minutes level49%48%51%51%
Minutes trailing34%27%31%34%
First goal (min)48425054
First goal conceded (min)34364138
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%61%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%55%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.280.22
Late goals against0.280.220.280.43
Style
Possession51%52%50%47%
Shots13.815.712.29.0
On target4.45.43.73.0
Shot conversion8%8%9%12%
Shots inside box58%57%65%63%
Big chances created2.12.41.61.3
Corners4.95.45.65.0
xG from set plays27%23%40%40%
Goals from headers14%17%16%12%
Pressure index10.912.411.78.5
Dominant minutes47.052.249.742.4
Pass accuracy80%81%74%74%
Fouls11.011.110.210.5
Cards2.151.871.932.13

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Portsmouth

0–15'59
16–30'512
31–45'98
46–60'814
61–75'98
76–90'1313

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Portsmouth · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.016
Early press (0-15, level)-0.056
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.403

Game state

When ahead+0.163
When level+0.056
When behind-0.153
10 min after conceding-0.104
10 min after scoring+0.024

Situations

At home-0.013
Away+0.033
4+ days rest-0.015

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.052
v bottom-tier opponents+0.044
Evenly matched-0.004

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.013
Conceded late (76+)-0.286

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level +0.11 · Behind vs level -0.20

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Portsmouth

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-143 94%1.261.091.31.181.23
3-4-2-12 4%0.51.01.51.461.28
3-4-31 2%0.00.05.00.341.67

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.83Home 52% P 53%3.6Draw 26% P 26%4.33Away 22% P 21%

Double Chance

1.2Watford or Draw 39% P 40%1.28Watford or Portsmouth 36% P 37%1.9Draw or Portsmouth 25% P 24%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49% P 49%1.8No 51% P 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 46%1.8Under 53% P 54%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 20–22.5% · 665 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home53%54%56%+2.6
Draw26%25%27%+1.4
Away21%21%17%-4.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes49%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Ben Toner

Career
64 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.77 (3.66 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 42 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.384.05+0.5971
Fouls / match24.721.8+2.49
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.260.17+1.1690
Time added7.97.2+0.7874
First card
34' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-26 62 300 29'10
2025-12-20 · Watford 60 220 30'8
2025-12-09 11 180 39'8
2025-11-29 30 171 36'8
2025-11-22 60 280 15'7
2025-11-01 20 310 70'11
2025-10-21 30 200 10'8
2025-10-01 · Watford · Portsmouth 70 240 2'8
2025-09-20 40 320 39'5
2025-09-13 31 210 3'8