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Championship · Matchweek 29
Birmingham CityBRC
1–1
FT
Stoke CityStoke City

Momentum

– BRCStoke City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
29

Venue

Stadium
St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
Capacity
29,409
Surface
grass
Attendance
27,904

Teams

Coaches
Chris Davies · Mark Robins
Position
13 · 9
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

James Bell

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
7.1° (feels 5.3°)
Wind
2.7
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Birmingham City

LWWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 6.71–6.49 · xPts 6.58

  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 xG 2.88–0.64 UK CHAMP
  • D A Swansea City 1–1 xG 1.59–1.85 UK CHAMP
  • W A Cambridge United 3–2 xG 0.9–1.24 UK FA Cup
  • W H Coventry City 3–2 xG 0.85–1.31 UK CHAMP
  • L A Watford 0–3 xG 0.49–1.46 UK CHAMP

Stoke City

WWWDL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 2 · xG 7.8–6.09 · xPts 7.99

  • L H Middlesbrough 1–2 xG 1.18–1.83 UK CHAMP
  • D H Queens Park Rangers 0–0 xG 0.65–0.41 UK CHAMP
  • W H Coventry City 1–0 xG 2.6–1.55 UK FA Cup
  • W A Norwich City 2–0 xG 1.59–0.62 UK CHAMP
  • W A Hull City 1–0 xG 1.79–1.67 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 20 matches since 2006

Birmingham City 97 draws4 Stoke City

Goals 21–16 · 1.85 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 30%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Birmingham City 35 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 11–10 · 2.1 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Birmingham City 12 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 4–6 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Birmingham City 1–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 1–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 1–3 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 0–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 1–2 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 2–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 0–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 1–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBirmingham City all · 46Birmingham City at home · 23Stoke City all · 46Stoke City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.391.911.200.96
W / D / L17 / 13 / 1612 / 8 / 315 / 10 / 216 / 4 / 13
Goals for / match1.241.701.110.74
Goals against / match1.220.961.221.22
Clean sheets22%30%28%30%
Failed to score24%9%37%52%
Both teams scored56%65%44%26%
Over 2.546%48%44%30%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.491.911.241.03
xG against / match1.141.001.431.67
xG difference0.350.91-0.19-0.63
Finishing vs xG-0.25-0.21-0.13-0.30
xPts / match1.571.921.281.01
Points vs xPts-0.18-0.01-0.08-0.05
Game state
Scored first50%78%44%35%
PPG when scoring first2.352.332.252.38
PPG when conceding first0.410.250.270.08
Came back from behind33%40%22%7%
Leads held71%67%71%75%
Minutes leading28%44%24%16%
Minutes level42%46%50%51%
Minutes trailing31%10%27%32%
First goal (min)39303742
First goal conceded (min)35464440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half49%44%55%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half39%50%62%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.170.150.04
Late goals against0.150.170.350.35
Style
Possession54%55%52%51%
Shots13.617.311.29.8
On target4.15.73.82.8
Shot conversion9%10%10%8%
Shots inside box64%63%65%62%
Big chances created2.43.01.81.4
Corners5.86.66.05.6
xG from set plays30%29%28%19%
Goals from headers21%24%16%19%
Pressure index14.418.313.310.2
Dominant minutes54.364.052.748.2
Pass accuracy77%77%78%78%
Fouls11.711.010.410.2
Cards2.112.002.302.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.8Home 52% P 56%3.7Draw 25% P 24%4.1Away 23% P 20%

Double Chance

1.22Birmingham or Draw 39% P 40%1.28Birmingham or Stoke 37% P 38%1.95Draw or Stoke 24% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 51%1.83No 50% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 49%1.9Under 50% P 51%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 20–22.5% · 299 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home56%56%60%+4.2
Draw24%23%21%-1.7
Away20%21%18%-2.5

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 59%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.549%49%50%+1.3

James Bell

Career
75 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
3.95 (3.81 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.6 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.19
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.964.05-0.1747
Fouls / match20.421.8-1.33
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.1949
Time added7.77.2+0.5567
First card
35' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-01 10 200 22'8
2025-12-26 40 200 31'9
2025-12-13 40 251 25'9
2025-12-09 · Birmingham City 30 190 80'7
2025-11-25 60 210 37'7
2025-11-05 40 260 38'9
2025-11-01 · Stoke City 30 230 7'6
2025-10-25 30 201 28'10
2025-10-18 50 210 43'7
2025-08-09 40 251 25'10