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Championship · Matchweek 29
Blackburn RoversBBR
1–1
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– BBRWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
29

Venue

Stadium
Ewood Park, Blackburn
Capacity
31,367
Surface
grass
Attendance
11,640

Teams

Coaches
Valérien Ismaël · Javier Gracia Carlos
Position
22 · 7
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Adam Herczeg

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
6.0° (feels 3.4°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
85%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Blackburn Rovers

LDDLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 3 GA 10 · xG 5.06–7.53 · xPts 5.46

  • L A Swansea City 1–3 xG 0.97–0.99 UK CHAMP
  • L A Ipswich Town 0–3 xG 0.78–2.71 UK CHAMP
  • D A Hull City 0–0 lost on pens None–None xG 1.01–1.57 UK FA Cup
  • D H Charlton Athletic 2–2 xG 1.37–1.47 UK CHAMP
  • L H Wrexham 0–2 xG 0.92–0.79 UK CHAMP

Watford

WWLLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 4.16–5.79 · xPts 5.74

  • D H Portsmouth 1–1 xG 0.95–0.7 UK CHAMP
  • L H Millwall 0–2 xG 0.42–1.37 UK CHAMP
  • L A Bristol City 1–5 xG 0.82–2.32 UK FA Cup
  • W H Birmingham City 3–0 xG 1.46–0.49 UK CHAMP
  • W A Norwich City 1–0 xG 0.5–0.9 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 18 matches since 2007

Blackburn Rovers 74 draws7 Watford

Goals 23–25 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Blackburn Rovers 42 draws4 Watford

Goals 12–12 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Blackburn Rovers 21 draws2 Watford

Goals 5–5 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Blackburn Rovers 1–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 0–1 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Blackburn Rovers 2–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–0 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 1–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 0–1 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 1–1 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Blackburn Rovers 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 2–3 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 3–1 Blackburn Rovers neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBlackburn Rovers all · 46Blackburn Rovers at home · 23Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.130.911.240.87
W / D / L13 / 13 / 204 / 9 / 1014 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match0.910.831.151.00
Goals against / match1.221.171.411.65
Clean sheets26%22%15%9%
Failed to score35%30%30%30%
Both teams scored48%56%59%65%
Over 2.539%30%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.201.261.341.19
xG against / match1.301.151.251.34
xG difference-0.100.110.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.43-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.321.461.431.30
Points vs xPts-0.19-0.54-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first46%39%26%22%
PPG when scoring first1.761.222.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.520.670.840.59
Came back from behind26%38%47%35%
Leads held56%40%67%40%
Minutes leading21%14%18%10%
Minutes level55%61%49%50%
Minutes trailing24%24%34%40%
First goal (min)44514853
First goal conceded (min)49533432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%58%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half59%52%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.220.350.300.30
Late goals against0.390.430.280.35
Style
Possession48%48%51%51%
Shots11.511.613.812.0
On target3.23.24.43.5
Shot conversion8%7%8%8%
Shots inside box67%69%58%58%
Big chances created2.01.72.12.0
Corners5.35.84.94.4
xG from set plays27%30%27%31%
Goals from headers27%26%14%9%
Pressure index10.110.710.99.5
Dominant minutes44.645.847.041.8
Pass accuracy74%73%80%79%
Fouls10.59.811.010.8
Cards2.172.002.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Blackburn Rovers

0–15'54
16–30'67
31–45'1112
46–60'69
61–75'46
76–90'1018

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Blackburn Rovers · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.55

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)-0.197
Late push (76+, level)+0.512
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.353

Game state

When ahead-0.145
When level+0.067
When behind+0.155
10 min after conceding+0.236
10 min after scoring+0.556

Situations

At home+0.004
Away+0.103
3 days rest or fewer+0.282
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.016
Evenly matched+0.125
As underdog-0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.067
Conceded when ahead+0.045
Conceded late (76+)-0.057

Congested vs rested +0.32 · Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level +0.09

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Blackburn Rovers

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-1-217 37%1.060.941.291.311.11
4-2-3-113 28%1.080.921.231.131.34
3-4-2-112 26%1.170.831.081.151.35
3-5-22 4%1.51.51.01.062.12
5-3-21 2%3.01.00.01.330.18

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.6h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.2Home 43% P 44%3.1Draw 30% P 29%3.5Away 27% P 26%

Double Chance

1.4Blackburn or Draw 33% P 37%1.36Blackburn or Watford 34% P 35%1.44Draw or Watford 32% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 50%1.83No 50% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.3Over 41% P 42%1.61Under 59% P 58%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 48%1.83Under 50% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 25–27.5% · 725 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home44%44%44%-0.2
Draw29%30%28%-1.4
Away26%26%28%+1.6

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.542%41%41%-0.4

Adam Herczeg

Career
41 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.66 (3.54 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.05-0.2645
Fouls / match22.321.8+0.38
Fouls per card5.75.4+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4422
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-21 41 210 45'7
2026-01-10 10 180 81'5
2025-12-29 60 240 13'6
2025-12-20 21 210 26'11
2025-12-10 20 220 79'5
2025-12-01 · Watford 50 210 20'6
2025-11-26 · Blackburn Rovers 30 200 22'10
2025-11-04 71 291 49'9
2025-10-25 40 250 45'8
2025-10-18 60 190 33'12