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Championship · Matchweek 29

Momentum

Derby CountyWBA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
29

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,099

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Eric Ramsay
Position
10 · 19
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 5-4-1

Referee

Anthony Backhouse

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
7.4° (feels 3.5°)
Wind
7.2
Humidity
84%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

WLLWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 5.39–6.63 · xPts 6.21

  • W A Charlton Athletic 2–1 xG 1.61–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • W A Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.36–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • L H Leeds United 1–3 xG 0.68–2.51 UK FA Cup
  • L H Wrexham 1–2 xG 1.19–1.18 UK CHAMP
  • W H Middlesbrough 1–0 xG 0.55–1.22 UK CHAMP

West Bromwich Albion

LLDLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 13 · xG 7.33–6.83 · xPts 7.33

  • L H Norwich City 0–5 xG 1.51–1.29 UK CHAMP
  • L H Middlesbrough 2–3 xG 0.94–0.8 UK CHAMP
  • D A Swansea City 2–2 won on pens None–None xG 1.8–2.52 UK FA Cup
  • L A Leicester City 1–2 xG 1.48–1.3 UK CHAMP
  • L A Swansea City 0–1 xG 1.6–0.92 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 17 matches since 2006

Derby County 94 draws4 West Bromwich Albion

Goals 24–17 · 2.41 per match · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 47%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 53 draws2 West Bromwich Albion

Goals 12–8 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 31 draws1 West Bromwich Albion

Goals 7–4 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Derby County 0–1 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W West Bromwich Albion 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W West Bromwich Albion 1–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–1 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–0 West Bromwich Albion neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D West Bromwich Albion 0–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L West Bromwich Albion 2–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 3–1 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23West Bromwich Albion all · 46West Bromwich Albion away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.501.571.150.83
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 713 / 14 / 195 / 4 / 14
Goals for / match1.461.351.040.87
Goals against / match1.281.171.261.43
Clean sheets26%30%30%26%
Failed to score9%4%33%35%
Both teams scored65%65%50%48%
Over 2.552%39%46%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.441.21
xG against / match1.321.111.051.32
xG difference-0.090.160.39-0.11
Finishing vs xG0.230.07-0.40-0.34
xPts / match1.331.471.621.29
Points vs xPts0.170.09-0.47-0.47
Game state
Scored first54%52%41%30%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.052.14
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.380.14
Came back from behind35%46%17%12%
Leads held69%71%62%71%
Minutes leading30%29%25%18%
Minutes level46%46%50%49%
Minutes trailing24%25%25%33%
First goal (min)40454246
First goal conceded (min)40364541
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%53%46%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.260.35
Late goals against0.300.260.260.22
Style
Possession44%48%52%50%
Shots11.011.913.411.7
On target3.63.74.13.5
Shot conversion13%11%8%7%
Shots inside box70%65%65%67%
Big chances created2.22.32.11.9
Corners4.55.55.24.2
xG from set plays39%44%36%30%
Goals from headers28%32%26%30%
Pressure index10.111.613.410.4
Dominant minutes39.945.752.948.6
Pass accuracy73%77%80%79%
Fouls12.311.910.210.4
Cards2.632.301.832.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

West Bromwich Albion

0–15'66
16–30'89
31–45'912
46–60'511
61–75'88
76–90'1212

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.287
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.183
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

West Bromwich Albion · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.14) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.38

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.147
Early press (0-15, level)+0.027
Late push (76+, level)-0.292

Game state

When ahead+0.085
When level+0.197
When behind-0.033
10 min after conceding-0.105
10 min after scoring+0.387

Situations

At home+0.274
Away-0.043
3 days rest or fewer+0.052
4+ days rest+0.175

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.003
v bottom-tier opponents+0.234
As favourite+0.224
As underdog-0.072

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.047
Conceded when ahead-0.165
Conceded late (76+)-0.257

Congested vs rested -0.12 · Ahead vs level -0.10 · Behind vs level -0.22

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

West Bromwich Albion

Current: unbeaten 4 · winless 1 · scoring 8 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.251.171.291.480.98
4-4-217 37%1.291.00.821.521.08
3-4-2-13 6%0.00.03.00.861.62
5-4-12 4%0.51.52.01.180.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 35%3.2Draw 29% P 29%2.62Away 36% P 36%

Double Chance

1.4Derby or Draw 34% P 32%1.36Derby or West Brom 35% P 35%1.5Draw or West Brom 32% P 33%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49% P 51%1.8No 51% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.3Over 41% P 42%1.61Under 59% P 58%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 51%1.83Under 50% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 35–37.5% · 584 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%36%35%-0.6
Draw29%28%28%+0.2
Away36%36%36%+0.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.542%41%41%-0.4

Anthony Backhouse

Career
81 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match
4.02 (3.94 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
19.6 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.11
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 58 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.524.05+0.8480
Fouls / match21.721.8-0.18
Fouls per card4.85.4-1.12 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.3139
Time added8.07.2+0.9078
First card
33' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-20 50 240 11'8
2026-01-10 40 190 34'6
2025-12-29 30 260 18'9
2025-12-20 50 110 25'8
2025-12-06 60 210 43'8
2025-11-29 30 210 68'6
2025-11-22 30 180 15'7
2025-11-05 40 170 48'6
2025-10-31 30 190 43'6
2025-10-21 30 210 70'7