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Championship · Matchweek 31
Derby CountyDerby County
1–2
FT
Ipswich TownIpswich Town

Momentum

– Derby CountyIpswich Town –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
31

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,498

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Kieran McKenna
Position
7 · 4
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Joshua Smith

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
9.6° (feels 7.2°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
90%

Where to watch · 314

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

LWWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 5 · xG 7.12–6.14 · xPts 7.5

  • W A Bristol City 5–0 xG 2.77–0.49 UK CHAMP
  • D H West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 0.7–1.42 UK CHAMP
  • W A Charlton Athletic 2–1 xG 1.61–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • W A Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.36–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • L H Leeds United 1–3 xG 0.68–2.51 UK FA Cup

Ipswich Town

WWWLD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 5 · xG 12.68–5.71 · xPts 10.83

  • D H Preston North End 1–1 xG 2.79–1.29 UK CHAMP
  • L A Sheffield United 1–3 xG 2.11–1.4 UK CHAMP
  • W H Bristol City 2–0 xG 1.51–0.81 UK CHAMP
  • W H Blackburn Rovers 3–0 xG 2.71–0.78 UK CHAMP
  • W H Blackpool 2–1 xG 3.55–1.42 UK FA Cup

All meetings · 32 matches since 2000

Derby County 97 draws16 Ipswich Town

Goals 35–43 · 2.44 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 44%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 42 draws4 Ipswich Town

Goals 12–9 · 2.1 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 22 draws1 Ipswich Town

Goals 8–6 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Derby County 1–2 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Ipswich Town 2–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Ipswich Town 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–0 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 1–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 0–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Ipswich Town neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Ipswich Town all · 46Ipswich Town away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.501.571.831.48
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 723 / 15 / 89 / 7 / 7
Goals for / match1.461.351.741.61
Goals against / match1.281.171.021.30
Clean sheets26%30%37%30%
Failed to score9%4%13%17%
Both teams scored65%65%56%61%
Over 2.552%39%52%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.831.59
xG against / match1.321.111.031.22
xG difference-0.090.160.800.36
Finishing vs xG0.230.07-0.090.02
xPts / match1.331.471.881.61
Points vs xPts0.170.09-0.06-0.13
Game state
Scored first54%52%54%39%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.682.78
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.780.58
Came back from behind35%46%60%46%
Leads held69%71%79%75%
Minutes leading30%29%33%21%
Minutes level46%46%50%53%
Minutes trailing24%25%17%26%
First goal (min)40454050
First goal conceded (min)40364035
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%59%76%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%51%47%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.500.52
Late goals against0.300.260.130.22
Style
Possession44%48%56%56%
Shots11.011.915.113.7
On target3.63.75.14.5
Shot conversion13%11%12%12%
Shots inside box70%65%67%66%
Big chances created2.22.32.82.2
Corners4.55.55.75.2
xG from set plays39%44%32%36%
Goals from headers28%32%12%19%
Pressure index10.111.618.816.9
Dominant minutes39.945.762.357.8
Pass accuracy73%77%81%80%
Fouls12.311.911.212.0
Cards2.632.301.932.48

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Ipswich Town

0–15'124
16–30'56
31–45'1613
46–60'149
61–75'109
76–90'236

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Ipswich Town · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.494
Late push (76+, level)-0.762

Game state

When ahead+0.003
When level-0.364
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.143

Situations

At home-0.202
Away-0.302
4+ days rest-0.254

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.202
v mid-tier opponents-0.282
As underdog-0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.034
Conceded when ahead-0.363
Conceded late (76+)-0.123

Ahead vs level +0.36 · Behind vs level +0.12

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Ipswich Town

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-145 98%1.841.761.021.841.03
4-4-1-11 2%1.01.01.01.271.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.75Home 25% P 24%3.5Draw 27% P 27%1.95Away 48% P 49%

Double Chance

1.8Derby or Draw 26% P 25%1.28Derby or Ipswich 37% P 37%1.28Draw or Ipswich 37% P 38%

Draw No Bet

2.621 35%1.442 65%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 52%1.83No 50% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 47%1.72Under 55% P 53%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 57%2.0Under 46% P 43%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 22.5–25% · away 47.5–50% · 385 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home24%24%22%-2.1
Draw27%27%28%+1.0
Away49%49%50%+1.1

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 50%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Joshua Smith

Career
156 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.95 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 122 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.05+0.4563
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.21
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.42 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.2667
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-31 30 150 25'12
2026-01-24 50 191 22'7
2026-01-16 20 150 69'5
2026-01-10 –– 12– –7
2026-01-01 50 170 15'7
2025-12-26 50 220 19'9
2025-12-09 50 260 29'10
2025-12-06 · Derby County 50 220 19'9
2025-11-29 60 270 76'8
2025-11-22 20 170 49'5