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Championship · Matchweek 31
SouthamptonSouthampton
1–0
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– SouthamptonWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
31

Venue

Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Capacity
32,384
Surface
grass
Attendance
27,721

Teams

Coaches
Tonda Eckert · Charlie Daniels
Position
14 · 8
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Elliot Bell

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
10.8° (feels 10.4°)
Wind
7.7
Humidity
94%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Southampton

WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 7.99–6.53 · xPts 7.52

  • W A Stoke City 2–0 xG 1.69–1.25 UK CHAMP
  • D A Portsmouth 1–1 xG 0.86–1.46 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield United 1–0 xG 1.24–1.32 UK CHAMP
  • L H Hull City 1–2 xG 3.02–0.77 UK CHAMP
  • W A Doncaster Rovers 3–2 xG 1.18–1.73 UK FA Cup

Watford

LDDLD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 2 GA 6 · xG 5.16–5.35 · xPts 6.92

  • D A Hull City 0–0 xG 1.39–0.34 UK CHAMP
  • L H Swansea City 0–2 xG 0.97–2.3 UK CHAMP
  • D A Blackburn Rovers 1–1 xG 1.42–0.64 UK CHAMP
  • D H Portsmouth 1–1 xG 0.95–0.7 UK CHAMP
  • L H Millwall 0–2 xG 0.42–1.37 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 28 matches since 2005

Southampton 119 draws8 Watford

Goals 43–39 · 2.93 per match · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 61%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Southampton 53 draws2 Watford

Goals 17–11 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Southampton 31 draws1 Watford

Goals 10–6 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Watford 2–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 2–2 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 3–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 3–0 Watford UK FA Cup · 4th Round Replays
  • D Watford 1–1 Southampton UK FA Cup · 4th Round
  • D Watford 1–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Southampton 1–2 Watford UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Watford 0–1 Southampton UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–3 Southampton UK PL · Regular Season
MetricSouthampton all · 48Southampton at home · 24Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.961.240.87
W / D / L23 / 15 / 1013 / 8 / 314 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.751.671.151.00
Goals against / match1.190.831.411.65
Clean sheets25%42%15%9%
Failed to score12%17%30%30%
Both teams scored71%54%59%65%
Over 2.562%54%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.781.341.19
xG against / match1.331.091.251.34
xG difference0.380.690.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.11-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.591.781.431.30
Points vs xPts0.160.18-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first52%50%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.242.672.331.80
PPG when conceding first1.261.330.840.59
Came back from behind54%67%47%35%
Leads held72%81%67%40%
Minutes leading34%36%18%10%
Minutes level49%48%49%50%
Minutes trailing18%16%34%40%
First goal (min)40394853
First goal conceded (min)44403432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%49%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%55%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.250.300.30
Late goals against0.270.170.280.35
Style
Possession56%58%51%51%
Shots14.415.813.812.0
On target5.35.54.43.5
Shot conversion12%11%8%8%
Shots inside box68%66%58%58%
Big chances created2.92.92.12.0
Corners5.86.54.94.4
xG from set plays28%26%27%31%
Goals from headers22%25%14%9%
Pressure index17.921.110.99.5
Dominant minutes59.063.847.041.8
Pass accuracy83%84%80%79%
Fouls10.79.811.010.8
Cards1.881.632.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Southampton

0–15'135
16–30'178
31–45'79
46–60'1710
61–75'1212
76–90'1713

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Southampton · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.267
Late push (76+, level)+0.393

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.037
When behind+0.622
10 min after conceding-0.187
10 min after scoring+0.297

Situations

At home+0.034
Away+0.363
3 days rest or fewer+0.252
4+ days rest+0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.234
v bottom-tier opponents+0.123
As favourite+0.206

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead+0.166
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level +0.16 · Behind vs level +0.59

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Southampton

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 2 · scoring 8 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-120 42%2.051.950.951.521.23
3-4-2-117 35%1.181.651.651.951.44
3-4-34 8%1.51.51.51.071.7
4-1-4-12 4%3.01.50.51.392.18
4-2-2-22 4%2.02.01.52.560.86

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 50% P 49%3.7Draw 25% P 26%3.75Away 25% P 24%

Double Chance

1.25Southampton or Draw 37% P 38%1.28Southampton or Watford 37% P 37%1.8Draw or Watford 26% P 25%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56% P 55%2.1No 44% P 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 52%2.0Under 47% P 48%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 44%1.83Under 50% P 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home49%49%47%-1.9
Draw26%28%29%+1.7
Away24%24%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes55%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Elliot Bell

Career
25 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.6 (4.48 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
24.2 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.04
Cards to home side
55%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 20 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.64.05+0.9986
Fouls / match22.421.8+0.44
Fouls per card4.95.4-1.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.050.17-1.792
Time added8.37.2+1.2692
First card
39' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
56% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-20 40 220 14'5
2026-01-11 40 230 55'6
2025-12-20 30 220 31'10
2025-11-01 50 300 32'6
2025-10-25 40 230 69'13
2025-10-22 41 240 37'8
2025-09-30 40 160 25'6
2025-09-27 30 200 74'6
2025-08-23 70 260 7'7
2025-08-09 30 260 38'10