KickoffDNA
0 live
Sign in
Championship · Matchweek 32
Derby CountyDerby County
2–0
FT
Swansea CitySwansea City

Momentum

– Derby CountySwansea City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
32

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
27,841

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Vítor Matos
Position
11 · 15
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Andrew Kitchen

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
4.3° (feels 1.6°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
70%

Where to watch · 247

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

WWDWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 7.47–5.17 · xPts 8.13

  • L H Ipswich Town 1–2 xG 1.04–1.54 UK CHAMP
  • W A Bristol City 5–0 xG 2.77–0.49 UK CHAMP
  • D H West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 0.7–1.42 UK CHAMP
  • W A Charlton Athletic 2–1 xG 1.61–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • W A Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.36–0.83 UK CHAMP

Swansea City

DWLWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 4 · xG 9.36–5.96 · xPts 9.02

  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 4–0 xG 2.32–0.07 UK CHAMP
  • W A Watford 2–0 xG 2.3–0.97 UK CHAMP
  • L A Hull City 1–2 xG 1.91–2.36 UK CHAMP
  • W H Blackburn Rovers 3–1 xG 0.99–0.97 UK CHAMP
  • D H Birmingham City 1–1 xG 1.85–1.59 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 19 matches since 2008

Derby County 66 draws7 Swansea City

Goals 20–21 · 2.16 per match · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 47%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 41 draws5 Swansea City

Goals 12–13 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 20 draws3 Swansea City

Goals 5–7 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Derby County 0–3 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 1–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–2 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 0–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 2–1 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 2–3 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Swansea City all · 46Swansea City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.501.571.391.09
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 718 / 10 / 187 / 4 / 12
Goals for / match1.461.351.241.00
Goals against / match1.281.171.281.39
Clean sheets26%30%26%22%
Failed to score9%4%22%35%
Both teams scored65%65%54%48%
Over 2.552%39%50%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.221.10
xG against / match1.321.111.371.37
xG difference-0.090.16-0.15-0.27
Finishing vs xG0.230.070.02-0.10
xPts / match1.331.471.281.19
Points vs xPts0.170.090.12-0.11
Game state
Scored first54%52%48%35%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.362.38
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.480.36
Came back from behind35%46%28%20%
Leads held69%71%72%78%
Minutes leading30%29%25%22%
Minutes level46%46%48%47%
Minutes trailing24%25%27%31%
First goal (min)40454643
First goal conceded (min)40364042
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%65%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%52%59%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.350.26
Late goals against0.300.260.300.30
Style
Possession44%48%55%54%
Shots11.011.912.311.0
On target3.63.73.94.0
Shot conversion13%11%10%9%
Shots inside box70%65%58%56%
Big chances created2.22.31.71.8
Corners4.55.54.54.0
xG from set plays39%44%36%36%
Goals from headers28%32%13%9%
Pressure index10.111.612.810.5
Dominant minutes39.945.751.945.9
Pass accuracy73%77%79%79%
Fouls12.311.99.810.6
Cards2.632.302.002.09

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Swansea City

0–15'66
16–30'86
31–45'616
46–60'1011
61–75'116
76–90'1614

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Swansea City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)+0.097
Late push (76+, level)-0.222

Game state

When ahead+0.214
When level-0.097
When behind-0.102
10 min after conceding-0.093
10 min after scoring+0.355

Situations

At home-0.024
Away+0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.092
4+ days rest+0.095

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.083
v bottom-tier opponents+0.134
As favourite+0.002
Evenly matched+0.114

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.017
Conceded when ahead-0.074
Conceded late (76+)-0.237

Congested vs rested -0.18 · Ahead vs level +0.30 · Behind vs level -0.01

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Swansea City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-122 48%1.321.231.411.191.3
4-1-4-111 24%1.821.360.731.351.38
4-3-37 15%1.431.141.141.131.33
3-4-2-12 4%0.01.03.00.80.88
4-4-21 2%0.01.03.01.932.01

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.45Home 38% P 38%3.2Draw 29% P 30%2.87Away 33% P 33%

Double Chance

1.4Derby or Draw 34% P 34%1.36Derby or Swansea 35% P 35%1.53Draw or Swansea 31% P 31%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 51%1.83No 50% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.66Under 57% P 57%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 46%1.83Under 50% P 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 571 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home38%39%39%+0.5
Draw30%28%28%-0.0
Away33%34%33%-0.4

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Andrew Kitchen

Career
95 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
3.09 (3.01 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
22.4 · 7.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.18
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 78 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.334.05-1.318
Fouls / match22.821.8+0.84
Fouls per card7.05.4+2.15 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.17+0.0155
Time added7.57.2+0.3357
First card
43' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-31 21 191 15'16
2026-01-20 30 190 19'6
2026-01-17 40 210 25'7
2025-12-26 30 191 65'6
2025-12-13 70 170 56'9
2025-12-10 10 141 57'7
2025-12-04 40 220 8'6
2025-11-25 · Derby County · Swansea City 20 300 82'5
2025-11-22 51 190 28'8
2025-11-08 30 260 49'8