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Championship · Matchweek 33
MillwallMillwall
1–3
FT
PortsmouthPortsmouth

Momentum

– MillwallPortsmouth –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
33

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · John Mousinho
Position
3 · 20
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Stephen Martin

Weather

Conditions
light intensity drizzle rain
Temperature
13.1° (feels 12.7°)
Wind
6.7
Humidity
87%

Where to watch · 184

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

LWDWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 11.36–6.91 · xPts 8.15

  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 xG 3.6–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • W A Wrexham 2–0 xG 0.79–1.52 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield United 1–1 xG 1.17–1.66 UK CHAMP
  • W H Charlton Athletic 4–0 xG 4.57–0.15 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 1–2 xG 1.22–2.69 UK CHAMP

Portsmouth

DWLLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 8.79–4.19 · xPts 9.91

  • W A Charlton Athletic 3–1 xG 1.26–1.2 UK CHAMP
  • L H Sheffield United 0–1 xG 2.25–1.63 UK CHAMP
  • L A Preston North End 0–1 xG 1.46–0.4 UK CHAMP
  • W H West Bromwich Albion 3–0 xG 2.36–0.11 UK CHAMP
  • D H Southampton 1–1 xG 1.46–0.86 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 8 matches since 2010

Millwall 41 draws3 Portsmouth

Goals 8–9 · 2.13 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 38%

Last 10 · 8 matches

Millwall 41 draws3 Portsmouth

Goals 8–9 · 2.13 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 38%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Millwall 30 draws2 Portsmouth

Goals 6–7 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Millwall 1–3 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 3–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 1–0 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Portsmouth 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 0–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 48Millwall at home · 24Portsmouth all · 46Portsmouth away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.751.201.09
W / D / L24 / 12 / 1213 / 3 / 814 / 13 / 196 / 7 / 10
Goals for / match1.331.381.071.04
Goals against / match1.061.131.391.78
Clean sheets40%46%22%17%
Failed to score21%21%28%26%
Both teams scored48%38%54%61%
Over 2.546%50%44%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.501.631.180.89
xG against / match1.331.151.241.37
xG difference0.180.49-0.06-0.47
Finishing vs xG-0.17-0.26-0.110.15
xPts / match1.471.631.361.11
Points vs xPts0.280.12-0.16-0.02
Game state
Scored first52%58%46%44%
PPG when scoring first2.602.572.192.10
PPG when conceding first0.790.560.300.25
Came back from behind43%27%27%23%
Leads held86%87%64%60%
Minutes leading27%34%18%14%
Minutes level56%50%51%51%
Minutes trailing17%16%31%34%
First goal (min)44375054
First goal conceded (min)43444138
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%52%61%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%55%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.330.280.22
Late goals against0.350.460.280.43
Style
Possession48%50%50%47%
Shots12.913.512.29.0
On target4.24.63.73.0
Shot conversion10%10%9%12%
Shots inside box68%71%65%63%
Big chances created2.32.41.61.3
Corners5.76.25.65.0
xG from set plays33%36%40%40%
Goals from headers16%19%16%12%
Pressure index11.914.811.78.5
Dominant minutes44.449.749.742.4
Pass accuracy70%72%74%74%
Fouls12.610.910.210.5
Cards1.901.381.932.13

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Portsmouth

0–15'59
16–30'512
31–45'98
46–60'814
61–75'98
76–90'1313

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Portsmouth · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.016
Early press (0-15, level)-0.056
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.403

Game state

When ahead+0.163
When level+0.056
When behind-0.153
10 min after conceding-0.104
10 min after scoring+0.024

Situations

At home-0.013
Away+0.033
4+ days rest-0.015

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.052
v bottom-tier opponents+0.044
Evenly matched-0.004

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.013
Conceded late (76+)-0.286

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level +0.11 · Behind vs level -0.20

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34

Portsmouth

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-143 94%1.261.091.31.181.23
3-4-2-12 4%0.51.01.51.461.28
3-4-31 2%0.00.05.00.341.67

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -2.5h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.85Home 40% P 51%3.4Draw 22% P 27%4.33Away 17% P 22%3.5Tie 21%

Double Chance

1.2Millwall or Draw 24% P 39%1.3Millwall or Portsmouth 22% P 37%1.2Millwall or Tie 24% P 37%1.9Tie or Portsmouth 15% P 37%1.9Draw or Portsmouth 15% P 24%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 46% P 47%1.72No 54% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 44%1.66Under 57% P 56%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 20–22.5% · 722 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home51%51%55%+3.6
Draw27%27%26%-1.4
Away22%21%19%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 47%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Stephen Martin

Career
78 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.68 (4.58 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
22.9 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 72 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.64.05+0.9986
Fouls / match23.021.8+1.06
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.59 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.110.17-0.9412
Time added7.77.2+0.5667
First card
35' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-14 50 260 36'15
2026-01-31 40 190 22'7
2026-01-20 51 250 45'10
2026-01-10 30 211 14'5
2026-01-05 10 160 77'7
2025-12-26 60 170 28'9
2025-12-20 50 280 37'8
2025-12-13 40 280 57'6
2025-12-06 30 211 33'7
2025-11-22 40 210 60'7