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Championship · Matchweek 33
WatfordWatford
2–0
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– WatfordDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
33

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Edward Still · John Eustace
Position
13 · 6
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

David Webb

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
12.5° (feels 12.2°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
90%

Where to watch · 184

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

DLDLD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 3 GA 6 · xG 6.13–4.85 · xPts 8.08

  • D A Preston North End 2–2 xG 1.2–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • L A Southampton 0–1 xG 1.15–0.61 UK CHAMP
  • D A Hull City 0–0 xG 1.39–0.34 UK CHAMP
  • L H Swansea City 0–2 xG 0.97–2.3 UK CHAMP
  • D A Blackburn Rovers 1–1 xG 1.42–0.64 UK CHAMP

Derby County

WDWLW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 4 · xG 7.22–5.65 · xPts 7.59

  • W H Swansea City 2–0 xG 1.11–1.31 UK CHAMP
  • L H Ipswich Town 1–2 xG 1.04–1.54 UK CHAMP
  • W A Bristol City 5–0 xG 2.77–0.49 UK CHAMP
  • D H West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 0.7–1.42 UK CHAMP
  • W A Charlton Athletic 2–1 xG 1.61–0.89 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 22 matches since 2005

Watford 112 draws9 Derby County

Goals 35–35 · 3.18 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 68%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 61 draws3 Derby County

Goals 19–15 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 50 draws0 Derby County

Goals 11–4 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Watford 2–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–3 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 2–2 Watford neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–2 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 4–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–3 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.501.43
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 620 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.151.301.461.57
Goals against / match1.411.171.281.39
Clean sheets15%22%26%22%
Failed to score30%30%9%13%
Both teams scored59%52%65%65%
Over 2.548%44%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.231.18
xG against / match1.251.151.321.54
xG difference0.100.34-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.190.230.38
xPts / match1.431.571.331.18
Points vs xPts-0.200.040.170.25
Game state
Scored first26%30%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.620.50
Came back from behind47%60%35%23%
Leads held67%91%69%67%
Minutes leading18%25%30%32%
Minutes level49%48%46%46%
Minutes trailing34%27%24%22%
First goal (min)48424035
First goal conceded (min)34364045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.260.26
Late goals against0.280.220.300.35
Style
Possession51%52%44%40%
Shots13.815.711.010.0
On target4.45.43.63.4
Shot conversion8%8%13%16%
Shots inside box58%57%70%77%
Big chances created2.12.42.22.2
Corners4.95.44.53.6
xG from set plays27%23%39%33%
Goals from headers14%17%28%25%
Pressure index10.912.410.18.6
Dominant minutes47.052.239.934.2
Pass accuracy80%81%73%70%
Fouls11.011.112.312.8
Cards2.151.872.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.128
Early press (0-15, level)-0.178
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.264

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.198
When behind-0.055
10 min after conceding-0.218
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away-0.014
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.186

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.203
As underdog-0.126

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.308
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)+0.068

Congested vs rested +0.24 · Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level +0.14

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.287
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.183
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Watford

Current: winless 2 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 47.8h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 31% P 46%3.4Draw 18% P 28%3.8Away 16% P 26%3.3Empate 18%3.3Tie 18%

Double Chance

1.25Watford or Draw 14% P 37%1.28Watford or Tie 14% P 36%1.7Tie or Derby 11% P 36%1.3Watford or Derby 14% P 36%1.8Draw or Derby 10% P 27%1.66Empate ou Derby 11%1.33Watford ou Derby 13%1.33Watford ou Empate 13%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 25% P 52%1.83No 25% P 48%1.83Não 25%1.83Sim 25%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 23% P 46%1.72Under 27% P 54%2.2Mais de 21%1.66Menos de 28%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 854 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home46%46%44%-1.8
Draw28%28%30%+1.8
Away26%26%26%-0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

David Webb

Career
296 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
2.96 (2.84 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
18.7 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.19
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 136 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.264.05-1.436
Fouls / match20.421.8-1.29
Fouls per card6.55.4+1.45 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.2247
Time added7.67.2+0.4463
First card
38' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-07 20 170 22'10
2026-01-31 –– 20– –8
2026-01-04 50 271 48'9
2025-12-29 50 230 23'9
2025-12-20 20 180 49'12
2025-12-13 10 212 32'7
2025-12-06 20 200 49'8
2025-11-29 20 150 14'12
2025-11-25 –– 28– –8
2025-11-23 30 210 36'11