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Championship · Matchweek 34
MillwallMillwall
3–0
FT
Birmingham CityBRC

Momentum

– MillwallBRC –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
34

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass
Attendance
16,636

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · Chris Davies
Position
5 · 9
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Dean Whitestone

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
12.1° (feels 11.5°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
81%

Where to watch · 184

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

WDWWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 5 · xG 10.64–5.68 · xPts 8.18

  • L H Portsmouth 1–3 xG 0.51–1.46 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 xG 3.6–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • W A Wrexham 2–0 xG 0.79–1.52 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield United 1–1 xG 1.17–1.66 UK CHAMP
  • W H Charlton Athletic 4–0 xG 4.57–0.15 UK CHAMP

Birmingham City

WWDDW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 3 · xG 10.81–7.93 · xPts 8.94

  • W A Norwich City 2–1 xG 1.5–1.9 UK CHAMP
  • D H Leeds United 1–1 lost on pens None–None xG 4.56–4.32 UK FA Cup
  • D H West Bromwich Albion 0–0 xG 1.42–0.49 UK CHAMP
  • W H Leicester City 2–1 xG 2.04–0.54 UK CHAMP
  • W A Oxford United 2–0 xG 1.28–0.68 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 25 matches since 2011

Millwall 88 draws9 Birmingham City

Goals 27–39 · 2.64 per match · BTTS 36% · over 2.5 44%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Millwall 44 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 12–9 · 2.1 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Millwall 21 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 5–6 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Millwall 3–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 4–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 1–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 0–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 0–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 2–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 3–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 0–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 48Millwall at home · 24Birmingham City all · 46Birmingham City away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.751.390.87
W / D / L24 / 12 / 1213 / 3 / 817 / 13 / 165 / 5 / 13
Goals for / match1.331.381.240.78
Goals against / match1.061.131.221.48
Clean sheets40%46%22%13%
Failed to score21%21%24%39%
Both teams scored48%38%56%48%
Over 2.546%50%46%44%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.501.631.491.07
xG against / match1.331.151.141.27
xG difference0.180.490.35-0.21
Finishing vs xG-0.17-0.26-0.25-0.28
xPts / match1.471.631.571.23
Points vs xPts0.280.12-0.18-0.36
Game state
Scored first52%58%50%22%
PPG when scoring first2.602.572.352.40
PPG when conceding first0.790.560.410.44
Came back from behind43%27%33%32%
Leads held86%87%71%83%
Minutes leading27%34%28%11%
Minutes level56%50%42%38%
Minutes trailing17%16%31%51%
First goal (min)44373952
First goal conceded (min)43443527
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%52%49%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%39%32%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.330.240.30
Late goals against0.350.460.150.13
Style
Possession48%50%54%52%
Shots12.913.513.69.9
On target4.24.64.12.6
Shot conversion10%10%9%8%
Shots inside box68%71%64%67%
Big chances created2.32.42.41.8
Corners5.76.25.85.0
xG from set plays33%36%30%33%
Goals from headers16%19%21%17%
Pressure index11.914.814.410.4
Dominant minutes44.449.754.344.6
Pass accuracy70%72%77%77%
Fouls12.610.911.712.3
Cards1.901.382.112.22

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 35%3.3Draw 29% P 29%2.6Away 36% P 36%

Double Chance

1.4Millwall or Draw 20% P 32%1.33Millwall or Birmingham 21% P 35%1.4Millwall or Tie 20% P 35%1.53Tie or Birmingham 19% P 35%1.5Draw or Birmingham 19% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51% P 54%1.9No 49% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 47%1.72Under 55% P 53%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

2.51.57Over 59%2.25Under 41%
3.52.1Over 44% P 46%1.66Under 56% P 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 35–37.5% · 584 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%36%35%-0.6
Draw29%28%28%+0.2
Away36%36%36%+0.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Dean Whitestone

Career
255 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
2.93 (2.83 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
20.1 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.22
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 108 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.334.05-1.318
Fouls / match20.921.8-0.83
Fouls per card6.35.4+1.16 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.210.17+0.4878
Time added7.37.2+0.1053
First card
42' on average
Card timing
12% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-14 20 140 81'10
2026-02-03 60 250 47'6
2026-01-20 70 330 40'9
2026-01-01 30 200 45'10
2025-12-09 20 181 11'9
2025-12-05 10 281 58'6
2025-11-22 50 260 37'5
2025-11-08 20 270 9'12
2025-11-04 30 180 37'17
2025-10-25 51 181 44'9