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Championship · Matchweek 35
Bristol CityBristol City
1–2
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– Bristol CityWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
35

Venue

Stadium
Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
Capacity
27,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,866

Teams

Coaches
Gerhard Struber · Edward Still
Position
8 · 12
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

Lewis Smith

Weather

Conditions
drizzle rain
Temperature
9.3° (feels 8.0°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 220

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Bristol City

LWDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 11 · xG 4.45–8.47 · xPts 4.48

  • W A Blackburn Rovers 2–1 xG 1.17–2.34 UK CHAMP
  • L A Swansea City 0–1 xG 0.94–1.08 UK CHAMP
  • D H Wrexham 2–2 xG 0.44–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • W A Hull City 3–2 xG 1.41–1.32 UK CHAMP
  • L H Derby County 0–5 xG 0.49–2.77 UK CHAMP

Watford

DLDWL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 7.19–3.74 · xPts 9.36

  • L H Ipswich Town 0–2 xG 1.5–1.31 UK CHAMP
  • W H Derby County 2–0 xG 1.95–0.52 UK CHAMP
  • D A Preston North End 2–2 xG 1.2–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • L A Southampton 0–1 xG 1.15–0.61 UK CHAMP
  • D A Hull City 0–0 xG 1.39–0.34 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 27 matches since 2007

Bristol City 810 draws9 Watford

Goals 34–39 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 44%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Bristol City 43 draws3 Watford

Goals 15–10 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bristol City 31 draws1 Watford

Goals 10–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Bristol City 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Bristol City 1–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Bristol City 5–1 Watford UK FA Cup · Round 3
  • D Watford 1–1 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Bristol City 2–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–0 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Bristol City 1–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–4 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–0 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Bristol City 0–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBristol City all · 46Bristol City at home · 23Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.351.351.240.87
W / D / L17 / 11 / 189 / 4 / 1014 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.281.431.151.00
Goals against / match1.281.351.411.65
Clean sheets30%35%15%9%
Failed to score33%30%30%30%
Both teams scored46%39%59%65%
Over 2.546%48%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.181.211.341.19
xG against / match1.481.491.251.34
xG difference-0.29-0.280.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG0.100.22-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.201.211.431.30
Points vs xPts0.150.13-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first39%44%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.332.202.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.670.670.840.59
Came back from behind31%29%47%35%
Leads held77%75%67%40%
Minutes leading30%33%18%10%
Minutes level41%38%49%50%
Minutes trailing29%29%34%40%
First goal (min)32284853
First goal conceded (min)30313432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half46%52%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half44%48%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.350.300.30
Late goals against0.240.300.280.35
Style
Possession49%52%51%51%
Shots12.212.713.812.0
On target4.14.04.43.5
Shot conversion10%11%8%8%
Shots inside box60%59%58%58%
Big chances created1.92.02.12.0
Corners4.84.74.94.4
xG from set plays24%20%27%31%
Goals from headers21%21%14%9%
Pressure index11.914.510.99.5
Dominant minutes43.948.947.041.8
Pass accuracy78%80%80%79%
Fouls9.58.811.010.8
Cards1.831.652.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Bristol City

0–15'911
16–30'1115
31–45'127
46–60'115
61–75'510
76–90'1111

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bristol City · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.35) · stands out: as underdog +0.72

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.357
Early press (0-15, level)+0.347
Late push (76+, level)+0.213
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.134

Game state

When ahead+0.114
When level+0.397
When behind+0.514
10 min after conceding+0.077
10 min after scoring+0.565

Situations

At home+0.033
Away+0.614
3 days rest or fewer+0.372
4+ days rest+0.355

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.514
v bottom-tier opponents+0.153
As favourite+0.022
Evenly matched+0.162
As underdog+0.723

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.127
Conceded when ahead-0.294
Conceded late (76+)-0.387

Congested vs rested +0.02 · Ahead vs level -0.28 · Behind vs level +0.13

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Bristol City

Current: winless 2 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 54%1.481.441.41.161.42
4-2-3-18 17%1.131.251.380.971.51
3-5-25 11%0.81.01.01.521.38
3-4-1-24 9%1.00.751.51.481.44
5-3-21 2%1.01.01.00.411.82

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.37Home 40% P 39%3.4Draw 28% P 28%2.87Away 33% P 33%

Double Chance

1.4Bristol City or Draw 33% P 33%1.3Bristol City or Watford 36% P 36%1.53Draw or Watford 31% P 31%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 55%2.0No 46% P 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 48%1.8Under 53% P 52%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 51%1.8Under 51% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 571 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home39%39%39%+0.5
Draw28%28%28%-0.0
Away33%34%33%-0.4

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes55%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Lewis Smith

Career
75 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
3.67 (3.57 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.8 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 51 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.94.05-0.2841
Fouls / match20.821.8-1.01
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.3043
Time added8.27.2+1.1488
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-21 61 240 30'6
2026-02-14 31 220 101'8
2026-01-31 30 170 69'14
2026-01-25 30 230 70'7
2026-01-17 50 220 85'7
2026-01-10 30 170 26'6
2026-01-01 · Watford 30 190 43'7
2025-12-29 20 160 37'6
2025-12-15 50 180 56'8
2025-12-06 20 140 49'8