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Championship · Matchweek 37
MillwallMillwall
1–0
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– MillwallDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
37

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass
Attendance
15,939

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · John Eustace
Position
3 · 7
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Matt Donohue

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
9.9° (feels 6.8°)
Wind
7.2
Humidity
83%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

WLWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 5 · xG 9.49–5.57 · xPts 9.04

  • W A Hull City 3–1 xG 1.5–2.44 UK CHAMP
  • W A Preston North End 2–0 xG 2.43–0.54 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 3–0 xG 1.46–0.24 UK CHAMP
  • L H Portsmouth 1–3 xG 0.51–1.46 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 xG 3.6–0.89 UK CHAMP

Derby County

WLLWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 7.11–5.32 · xPts 8.14

  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 xG 1.71–0.54 UK CHAMP
  • W H Blackburn Rovers 3–1 xG 1.54–0.74 UK CHAMP
  • L A Hull City 2–4 xG 2.23–0.78 UK CHAMP
  • L A Watford 0–2 xG 0.52–1.95 UK CHAMP
  • W H Swansea City 2–0 xG 1.11–1.31 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 28 matches since 2006

Millwall 1110 draws7 Derby County

Goals 27–29 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 32%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Millwall 53 draws2 Derby County

Goals 11–8 · 1.9 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 20%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Millwall 32 draws0 Derby County

Goals 6–3 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • W Millwall 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–2 Millwall neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–1 Millwall neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 2–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 48Millwall at home · 24Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.751.501.43
W / D / L24 / 12 / 1213 / 3 / 820 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.331.381.461.57
Goals against / match1.061.131.281.39
Clean sheets40%46%26%22%
Failed to score21%21%9%13%
Both teams scored48%38%65%65%
Over 2.546%50%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.501.631.231.18
xG against / match1.331.151.321.54
xG difference0.180.49-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG-0.17-0.260.230.38
xPts / match1.471.631.331.18
Points vs xPts0.280.120.170.25
Game state
Scored first52%58%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.602.572.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.790.560.620.50
Came back from behind43%27%35%23%
Leads held86%87%69%67%
Minutes leading27%34%30%32%
Minutes level56%50%46%46%
Minutes trailing17%16%24%22%
First goal (min)44374035
First goal conceded (min)43444045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%52%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.330.260.26
Late goals against0.350.460.300.35
Style
Possession48%50%44%40%
Shots12.913.511.010.0
On target4.24.63.63.4
Shot conversion10%10%13%16%
Shots inside box68%71%70%77%
Big chances created2.32.42.22.2
Corners5.76.24.53.6
xG from set plays33%36%39%33%
Goals from headers16%19%28%25%
Pressure index11.914.810.18.6
Dominant minutes44.449.739.934.2
Pass accuracy70%72%73%70%
Fouls12.610.912.312.8
Cards1.901.382.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 48% P 48%3.4Draw 27% P 27%3.75Away 25% P 25%

Double Chance

1.28Millwall or Draw 37% P 37%1.3Millwall or Derby 37% P 37%1.8Draw or Derby 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 54%2.0No 46% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 48%1.9Under 50% P 52%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 25–27.5% · 375 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%48%47%-1.0
Draw27%26%27%+1.9
Away25%26%25%-0.9

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 57%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Matt Donohue

Career
202 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.26 (4.07 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
23.4 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 134 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.634.05+1.0590
Fouls / match23.021.8+0.99
Fouls per card5.05.4-0.77 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4126
Time added7.27.2-0.0247
First card
36' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-07 62 150 29'12
2026-03-04 60 260 17'10
2026-02-24 40 250 30'10
2026-02-14 20 140 3'4
2026-01-31 20 180 11'6
2026-01-20 30 240 68'11
2026-01-17 70 210 29'13
2026-01-07 30 261 43'7
2025-12-29 30 250 41'6
2025-12-26 50 260 46'4