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Championship · Matchweek 38
MillwallMillwall
1–2
FT
Blackburn RoversBBR

Momentum

– MillwallBBR –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
38

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · Michael O'Neill
Position
3 · 21
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Andrew Kitchen

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
10.9° (feels 9.2°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
42%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 7.53–5.56 · xPts 8.27

  • W H Derby County 1–0 xG 1.64–0.88 UK CHAMP
  • W A Hull City 3–1 xG 1.5–2.44 UK CHAMP
  • W A Preston North End 2–0 xG 2.43–0.54 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 3–0 xG 1.46–0.24 UK CHAMP
  • L H Portsmouth 1–3 xG 0.51–1.46 UK CHAMP

Blackburn Rovers

WLLDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 6.34–5.24 · xPts 7.63

  • L A Oxford United 0–1 xG 0.75–1.56 UK CHAMP
  • D H Portsmouth 1–1 xG 1.18–0.79 UK CHAMP
  • L A Derby County 1–3 xG 0.74–1.54 UK CHAMP
  • L H Bristol City 1–2 xG 2.34–1.17 UK CHAMP
  • W H Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.33–0.18 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 25 matches since 2012

Millwall 47 draws14 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 23–40 · 2.52 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 44%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Millwall 12 draws7 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 10–20 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Millwall 10 draws4 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 4–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Blackburn Rovers 3–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 1–2 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 2–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 4–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 1–0 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Blackburn Rovers 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 1–2 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 3–4 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 2–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Blackburn Rovers 0–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 48Millwall at home · 24Blackburn Rovers all · 46Blackburn Rovers away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.751.131.35
W / D / L24 / 12 / 1213 / 3 / 813 / 13 / 209 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.331.380.911.00
Goals against / match1.061.131.221.26
Clean sheets40%46%26%30%
Failed to score21%21%35%39%
Both teams scored48%38%48%39%
Over 2.546%50%39%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.501.631.201.13
xG against / match1.331.151.301.45
xG difference0.180.49-0.10-0.31
Finishing vs xG-0.17-0.26-0.28-0.13
xPts / match1.471.631.321.19
Points vs xPts0.280.12-0.190.16
Game state
Scored first52%58%46%52%
PPG when scoring first2.602.571.762.17
PPG when conceding first0.790.560.520.33
Came back from behind43%27%26%9%
Leads held86%87%56%69%
Minutes leading27%34%21%28%
Minutes level56%50%55%48%
Minutes trailing17%16%24%24%
First goal (min)44374436
First goal conceded (min)43444944
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%52%48%39%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%59%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.330.220.09
Late goals against0.350.460.390.35
Style
Possession48%50%48%47%
Shots12.913.511.511.4
On target4.24.63.23.1
Shot conversion10%10%8%9%
Shots inside box68%71%67%66%
Big chances created2.32.42.02.2
Corners5.76.25.34.9
xG from set plays33%36%27%24%
Goals from headers16%19%27%27%
Pressure index11.914.810.19.4
Dominant minutes44.449.744.643.4
Pass accuracy70%72%74%75%
Fouls12.610.910.511.3
Cards1.901.382.172.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Blackburn Rovers

0–15'54
16–30'67
31–45'1112
46–60'69
61–75'46
76–90'1018

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Blackburn Rovers · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.55

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)-0.197
Late push (76+, level)+0.512
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.353

Game state

When ahead-0.145
When level+0.067
When behind+0.155
10 min after conceding+0.236
10 min after scoring+0.556

Situations

At home+0.004
Away+0.103
3 days rest or fewer+0.282
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.016
Evenly matched+0.125
As underdog-0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.067
Conceded when ahead+0.045
Conceded late (76+)-0.057

Congested vs rested +0.32 · Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level +0.09

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34

Blackburn Rovers

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-1-217 37%1.060.941.291.311.11
4-2-3-113 28%1.080.921.231.131.34
3-4-2-112 26%1.170.831.081.151.35
3-5-22 4%1.51.51.01.062.12
5-3-21 2%3.01.00.01.330.18

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 49% P 49%3.3Draw 28% P 29%4.2Away 22% P 22%

Double Chance

1.16Millwall or Draw 40% P 39%1.3Millwall or Blackburn 36% P 36%2.0Draw or Blackburn 23% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49% P 49%1.8No 51% P 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.66Under 57% P 57%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 48%1.83Under 50% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 20–22.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home49%49%47%-2.2
Draw29%29%33%+3.5
Away22%22%20%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes49%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Andrew Kitchen

Career
95 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
3.09 (3.01 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
22.4 · 7.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.18
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 78 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.334.05-1.318
Fouls / match22.821.8+0.84
Fouls per card7.05.4+2.15 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.17+0.0155
Time added7.57.2+0.3357
First card
43' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-06 20 190 22'9
2026-02-28 20 130 90'10
2026-02-24 20 200 43'9
2026-02-14 50 320 27'7
2026-01-31 21 191 15'16
2026-01-20 · Millwall 30 190 19'6
2026-01-17 · Blackburn Rovers 40 210 25'7
2025-12-26 30 191 65'6
2025-12-13 70 170 56'9
2025-12-10 10 141 57'7