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Championship · Matchweek 39
Derby CountyDerby County
1–0
FT
Birmingham CityBRC

Momentum

– Derby CountyBRC –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
39

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Chris Davies
Position
8 · 10
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Gavin Ward

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
14.2° (feels 13.4°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
65%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

LWWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 7.66–5.87 · xPts 8.18

  • W A Portsmouth 1–0 xG 1.29–2.18 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–1 xG 0.88–1.64 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 xG 1.71–0.54 UK CHAMP
  • W H Blackburn Rovers 3–1 xG 1.54–0.74 UK CHAMP
  • L A Hull City 2–4 xG 2.23–0.78 UK CHAMP

Birmingham City

LLLWD 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 3 GA 8 · xG 5.03–5.08 · xPts 6.45

  • D H Sheffield United 1–1 xG 1.66–1.22 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 1–0 xG 2.04–0.59 UK CHAMP
  • L A Charlton Athletic 0–1 xG 0.39–1.08 UK CHAMP
  • L H Middlesbrough 1–3 xG 0.7–0.74 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–3 xG 0.24–1.46 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 32 matches since 2006

Derby County 1111 draws10 Birmingham City

Goals 51–44 · 2.97 per match · BTTS 69% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 43 draws3 Birmingham City

Goals 18–14 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 12 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 5–7 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 2–2 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 2–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 0–4 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 1–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 3–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 2–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Birmingham City all · 46Birmingham City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.501.571.390.87
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 717 / 13 / 165 / 5 / 13
Goals for / match1.461.351.240.78
Goals against / match1.281.171.221.48
Clean sheets26%30%22%13%
Failed to score9%4%24%39%
Both teams scored65%65%56%48%
Over 2.552%39%46%44%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.491.07
xG against / match1.321.111.141.27
xG difference-0.090.160.35-0.21
Finishing vs xG0.230.07-0.25-0.28
xPts / match1.331.471.571.23
Points vs xPts0.170.09-0.18-0.36
Game state
Scored first54%52%50%22%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.352.40
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.410.44
Came back from behind35%46%33%32%
Leads held69%71%71%83%
Minutes leading30%29%28%11%
Minutes level46%46%42%38%
Minutes trailing24%25%31%51%
First goal (min)40453952
First goal conceded (min)40363527
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%49%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%39%32%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.240.30
Late goals against0.300.260.150.13
Style
Possession44%48%54%52%
Shots11.011.913.69.9
On target3.63.74.12.6
Shot conversion13%11%9%8%
Shots inside box70%65%64%67%
Big chances created2.22.32.41.8
Corners4.55.55.85.0
xG from set plays39%44%30%33%
Goals from headers28%32%21%17%
Pressure index10.111.614.410.4
Dominant minutes39.945.754.344.6
Pass accuracy73%77%77%77%
Fouls12.311.911.712.3
Cards2.632.302.112.22

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 35%3.3Draw 28% P 28%2.55Away 37% P 37%

Double Chance

1.5Derby or Draw 32% P 32%1.36Derby or Birmingham 35% P 36%1.4Draw or Birmingham 34% P 33%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 55%2.0No 46% P 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 49%1.8Under 53% P 51%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 35–37.5% · 691 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%34%34%+0.5
Draw28%30%27%-2.5
Away37%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes55%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.549%49%50%+1.3

Gavin Ward

Career
292 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
3.58 (3.43 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 124 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.834.05-0.4029
Fouls / match20.821.8-1.02
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.00 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.2445
Time added7.27.2-0.0247
First card
39' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-14 20 230 13'6
2026-03-10 30 190 33'12
2026-02-28 10 230 89'8
2026-02-21 30 110 50'9
2026-02-14 60 270 37'5
2026-02-09 51 250 65'7
2026-01-24 20 211 26'8
2026-01-11 30 140 54'7
2026-01-01 20 180 55'6
2025-12-29 · Derby County 30 220 83'11