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Championship · Matchweek 39
Ipswich TownIpswich Town
1–1
FT
MillwallMillwall

Momentum

– Ipswich TownMillwall –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
39

Venue

Stadium
Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich
Capacity
29,673
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Kieran McKenna · Alex Neil
Position
3 · 4
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Michael Salisbury

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
11.3° (feels 9.7°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
46%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Ipswich Town

WWDDW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 9.66–4.62 · xPts 10.24

  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 xG 2.69–0.47 UK CHAMP
  • D A Stoke City 3–3 xG 1.24–2.87 UK CHAMP
  • D H Leicester City 1–1 xG 2.67–0.38 UK CHAMP
  • W H Hull City 1–0 xG 1.66–0.35 UK CHAMP
  • W H Swansea City 3–0 xG 1.4–0.54 UK CHAMP

Millwall

WWWWL 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 3 · xG 8.06–6.17 · xPts 8.37

  • L H Blackburn Rovers 1–2 xG 1.03–2.07 UK CHAMP
  • W H Derby County 1–0 xG 1.64–0.88 UK CHAMP
  • W A Hull City 3–1 xG 1.5–2.44 UK CHAMP
  • W A Preston North End 2–0 xG 2.43–0.54 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 3–0 xG 1.46–0.24 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 20 matches since 2005

Ipswich Town 95 draws6 Millwall

Goals 34–26 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 65%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Ipswich Town 53 draws2 Millwall

Goals 21–14 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Ipswich Town 22 draws1 Millwall

Goals 10–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Ipswich Town 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 0–0 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 0–4 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 3–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Ipswich Town 2–3 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 3–0 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Ipswich Town 2–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 3–4 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 1–3 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 2–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricIpswich Town all · 46Ipswich Town at home · 23Millwall all · 48Millwall away · 24
Results
Matches46234824
Points per game1.832.171.751.75
W / D / L23 / 15 / 814 / 8 / 124 / 12 / 1211 / 9 / 4
Goals for / match1.741.871.331.29
Goals against / match1.020.741.061.00
Clean sheets37%44%40%33%
Failed to score13%9%21%21%
Both teams scored56%52%48%58%
Over 2.552%56%46%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.832.071.501.38
xG against / match1.030.841.331.51
xG difference0.801.230.18-0.13
Finishing vs xG-0.09-0.20-0.17-0.08
xPts / match1.882.161.471.30
Points vs xPts-0.060.020.280.45
Game state
Scored first54%70%52%46%
PPG when scoring first2.682.622.602.64
PPG when conceding first0.781.170.791.00
Came back from behind60%86%43%60%
Leads held79%82%86%85%
Minutes leading33%45%27%20%
Minutes level50%48%56%61%
Minutes trailing17%8%17%18%
First goal (min)40324451
First goal conceded (min)40464342
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%44%61%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%59%67%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.480.350.38
Late goals against0.130.040.350.25
Style
Possession56%56%48%46%
Shots15.116.512.912.3
On target5.15.74.23.8
Shot conversion12%11%10%10%
Shots inside box67%68%68%65%
Big chances created2.83.52.32.2
Corners5.76.25.75.2
xG from set plays32%29%33%30%
Goals from headers12%5%16%13%
Pressure index18.820.711.99.1
Dominant minutes62.366.744.439.2
Pass accuracy81%81%70%69%
Fouls11.210.312.614.4
Cards1.931.391.902.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ipswich Town

0–15'124
16–30'56
31–45'1613
46–60'149
61–75'109
76–90'236

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ipswich Town · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.494
Late push (76+, level)-0.762

Game state

When ahead+0.003
When level-0.364
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.143

Situations

At home-0.202
Away-0.302
4+ days rest-0.254

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.202
v mid-tier opponents-0.282
As underdog-0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.034
Conceded when ahead-0.363
Conceded late (76+)-0.123

Ahead vs level +0.36 · Behind vs level +0.12

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Ipswich Town

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-145 98%1.841.761.021.841.03
4-4-1-11 2%1.01.01.01.271.19

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.5h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.72Home 55% P 55%3.8Draw 25% P 25%4.5Away 21% P 20%

Double Chance

1.16Ipswich or Draw 41% P 40%1.25Ipswich or Millwall 38% P 37%2.2Draw or Millwall 21% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 53%1.83No 50% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 52%2.0Under 47% P 48%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 56%2.1Under 44% P 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 20–22.5% · 298 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home55%56%60%+4.1
Draw25%23%21%-1.7
Away20%21%18%-2.4

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 59%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Michael Salisbury

Career
139 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.52 (3.35 yellow · 0.14 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.384.05-1.2214
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.26
Fouls per card6.55.4+1.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4422
Time added6.57.2-0.8316
First card
35' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 24% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-01 41 161 31'7
2026-01-24 20 140 45'7
2026-01-07 50 212 7'13
2025-12-30 80 293 13'10
2025-12-08 50 291 38'11
2025-12-02 60 280 22'7
2025-11-22 · Millwall 31 220 45'13
2025-11-08 40 280 25'10
2025-11-01 30 211 35'7
2025-10-05 50 291 68'9