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Championship · Matchweek 39
Preston North EndPNE
3–1
FT
Stoke CityStoke City

Momentum

– PNEStoke City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
39

Venue

Stadium
Deepdale, Preston
Capacity
23,408
Surface
grass
Attendance
16,604

Teams

Coaches
Paul Heckingbottom · Mark Robins
Position
17 · 13
Formation
3-1-4-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Farai Hallam

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
7.1° (feels 7.1°)
Wind
0.8
Humidity
84%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Preston North End

DLLLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 2 GA 11 · xG 5.83–12.63 · xPts 4.46

  • L A Norwich City 0–2 xG 1.91–0.61 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 0–3 xG 0.47–5.01 UK CHAMP
  • L H Oxford United 1–3 xG 0.94–2.33 UK CHAMP
  • L H Millwall 0–2 xG 0.54–2.43 UK CHAMP
  • D A Swansea City 1–1 xG 1.96–2.26 UK CHAMP

Stoke City

WLLDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 9 · xG 8.73–8.53 · xPts 7.25

  • W H Watford 3–1 xG 2.11–1.64 UK CHAMP
  • D H Ipswich Town 3–3 xG 2.87–1.24 UK CHAMP
  • L A Swansea City 0–2 xG 1.52–1.25 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 1–2 xG 0.31–2.75 UK CHAMP
  • W H Oxford United 2–1 xG 1.93–1.65 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 22 matches since 2005

Preston North End 98 draws5 Stoke City

Goals 27–19 · 2.09 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 32%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Preston North End 44 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 11–8 · 1.9 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Preston North End 13 draws1 Stoke City

Goals 5–4 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Preston North End 3–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Preston North End 1–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Preston North End 1–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 0–2 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 0–1 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Preston North End 0–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 1–2 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Preston North End 1–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricPreston North End all · 46Preston North End at home · 23Stoke City all · 46Stoke City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.301.351.200.96
W / D / L15 / 15 / 168 / 7 / 815 / 10 / 216 / 4 / 13
Goals for / match1.201.221.110.74
Goals against / match1.351.301.221.22
Clean sheets20%22%28%30%
Failed to score26%26%37%52%
Both teams scored59%56%44%26%
Over 2.548%48%44%30%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.181.221.241.03
xG against / match1.631.421.431.67
xG difference-0.45-0.20-0.19-0.63
Finishing vs xG0.020.00-0.13-0.30
xPts / match1.131.251.281.01
Points vs xPts0.170.10-0.08-0.05
Game state
Scored first41%39%44%35%
PPG when scoring first2.162.332.252.38
PPG when conceding first0.680.690.270.08
Came back from behind38%43%22%7%
Leads held62%73%71%75%
Minutes leading28%27%24%16%
Minutes level45%46%50%51%
Minutes trailing27%27%27%32%
First goal (min)36403742
First goal conceded (min)42434440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%61%55%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%60%62%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.300.150.04
Late goals against0.300.350.350.35
Style
Possession46%48%52%51%
Shots10.911.311.29.8
On target3.63.43.82.8
Shot conversion11%11%10%8%
Shots inside box68%69%65%62%
Big chances created1.61.71.81.4
Corners4.55.36.05.6
xG from set plays34%35%28%19%
Goals from headers22%21%16%19%
Pressure index8.89.513.310.2
Dominant minutes40.542.352.748.2
Pass accuracy72%73%78%78%
Fouls10.410.110.410.2
Cards2.092.132.302.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Preston North End

0–15'1111
16–30'107
31–45'613
46–60'109
61–75'68
76–90'1214

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Preston North End · 7 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.18) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.177
Late push (76+, level)+0.013
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.546

Game state

When ahead-0.162
When level+0.017
When behind-0.336
10 min after conceding-0.327
10 min after scoring+0.295

Situations

At home-0.194
Away-0.163
3 days rest or fewer-0.052
4+ days rest-0.235

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.222
v bottom-tier opponents-0.175
Evenly matched-0.154
As underdog-0.223

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.172
Conceded late (76+)-0.027

Congested vs rested +0.18 · Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level -0.34

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Preston North End

Current: winless 2 · conceding 22

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-214 30%1.51.361.361.191.42
3-1-4-29 20%1.221.111.111.221.23
5-3-27 15%0.710.861.710.971.94
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.01.21.231.86
4-4-25 11%1.81.41.61.441.99

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.35Home 40% P 40%3.3Draw 28% P 29%2.9Away 32% P 31%

Double Chance

1.4Preston or Draw 34% P 34%1.36Preston or Stoke 35% P 36%1.5Draw or Stoke 32% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51% P 55%1.9No 49% P 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 49%1.72Under 55% P 51%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home40%41%41%-0.1
Draw29%28%26%-1.9
Away31%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes55%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.549%49%50%+1.3

Farai Hallam

Career
52 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
3.58 (3.52 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
21.9 · 6.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
36%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 36 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.04.05-0.1049
Fouls / match23.021.8+1.01
Fouls per card6.15.4+0.76 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.110.17-0.9214
Time added7.17.2-0.1441
First card
35' on average
Card timing
12% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
36% (league 45%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-14 50 261 53'8
2026-03-06 30 200 17'9
2026-02-28 30 150 17'7
2026-02-21 10 200 39'10
2026-02-13 40 160 45'4
2026-02-11 30 190 35'7
2026-01-31 · Stoke City 50 260 30'7
2026-01-24 40 300 57'9
2026-01-17 · Preston North End 70 190 21'7
2026-01-12 10 130 32'7