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Championship · Matchweek 39
SouthamptonSouthampton
2–0
FT
Oxford UnitedOXF

Momentum

– SouthamptonOXF –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
39

Venue

Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Capacity
32,384
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Tonda Eckert · Matt Bloomfield
Position
6 · 22
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 5-4-1

Referee

Ben Toner

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
13.7° (feels 12.1°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
35%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Southampton

WWDWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 3 · xG 7.28–9.46 · xPts 5.77

  • W H Norwich City 1–0 xG 0.72–1.04 UK CHAMP
  • W A Coventry City 2–1 xG 2.05–3.31 UK CHAMP
  • D A West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 0.96–2.26 UK CHAMP
  • W A Fulham 1–0 xG 1.5–2.0 UK FA Cup
  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 3–1 xG 2.04–0.85 UK CHAMP

Oxford United

LWWWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 7.89–5.82 · xPts 8.24

  • D H Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.45–0.93 UK CHAMP
  • W H Blackburn Rovers 1–0 xG 1.56–0.75 UK CHAMP
  • W A Preston North End 3–1 xG 2.33–0.94 UK CHAMP
  • W H West Bromwich Albion 2–1 xG 0.91–1.27 UK CHAMP
  • L A Stoke City 1–2 xG 1.65–1.93 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Southampton 10 draws1 Oxford United

Goals 3–2 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Southampton 10 draws1 Oxford United

Goals 3–2 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Southampton 10 draws1 Oxford United

Goals 3–2 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • W Southampton 2–0 Oxford United UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Oxford United 2–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricSouthampton all · 48Southampton at home · 24Oxford United all · 46Oxford United away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.961.020.78
W / D / L23 / 15 / 1013 / 8 / 311 / 14 / 214 / 6 / 13
Goals for / match1.751.670.980.91
Goals against / match1.190.831.281.39
Clean sheets25%42%17%13%
Failed to score12%17%41%44%
Both teams scored71%54%52%56%
Over 2.562%54%46%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.781.170.99
xG against / match1.331.091.431.68
xG difference0.380.69-0.25-0.70
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.11-0.20-0.07
xPts / match1.591.781.210.95
Points vs xPts0.160.18-0.19-0.17
Game state
Scored first52%50%39%35%
PPG when scoring first2.242.672.061.63
PPG when conceding first1.261.330.220.17
Came back from behind54%67%19%13%
Leads held72%81%58%44%
Minutes leading34%36%21%19%
Minutes level49%48%47%47%
Minutes trailing18%16%32%34%
First goal (min)40392829
First goal conceded (min)44403538
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%49%38%38%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%55%41%41%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.250.150.13
Late goals against0.270.170.150.26
Style
Possession56%58%40%38%
Shots14.415.811.99.8
On target5.35.53.42.6
Shot conversion12%11%8%9%
Shots inside box68%66%54%53%
Big chances created2.92.91.61.6
Corners5.86.54.03.4
xG from set plays28%26%40%33%
Goals from headers22%25%16%19%
Pressure index17.921.16.43.8
Dominant minutes59.063.833.723.1
Pass accuracy83%84%69%70%
Fouls10.79.810.811.0
Cards1.881.631.672.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Southampton

0–15'135
16–30'178
31–45'79
46–60'1710
61–75'1212
76–90'1713

Oxford United

0–15'1013
16–30'108
31–45'814
46–60'511
61–75'56
76–90'77

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Southampton · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.267
Late push (76+, level)+0.393

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.037
When behind+0.622
10 min after conceding-0.187
10 min after scoring+0.297

Situations

At home+0.034
Away+0.363
3 days rest or fewer+0.252
4+ days rest+0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.234
v bottom-tier opponents+0.123
As favourite+0.206

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead+0.166
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level +0.16 · Behind vs level +0.59

Oxford United

No pressure profile yet.

Southampton

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 2 · scoring 8 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-120 42%2.051.950.951.521.23
3-4-2-117 35%1.181.651.651.951.44
3-4-34 8%1.51.51.51.071.7
4-2-2-22 4%2.02.01.52.560.86
5-4-12 4%2.01.50.02.420.33

Oxford United

Current: winless 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-127 59%1.070.931.191.31.37
4-4-26 13%0.831.331.51.331.73
3-4-2-14 9%1.00.751.50.781.22
5-4-14 9%1.01.01.50.841.78
4-1-4-13 6%1.331.01.00.881.11

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.9h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.6Home 59% P 59%3.75Draw 25% P 24%6.0Away 16% P 17%

Double Chance

1.12Southampton or Draw 42% P 41%1.25Southampton or Oxford Utd 38% P 38%2.37Draw or Oxford Utd 20% P 20%

Draw No Bet

1.21 78%4.332 22%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 50%1.83No 50% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 50%1.9Under 50% P 50%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.612 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 52%2.1Under 44% P 48%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 57.5–60% · away 15–17.5% · 555 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home59%59%57%-1.5
Draw24%25%28%+3.8
Away17%16%14%-2.2

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 49%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.550%51%51%-0.1

Ben Toner

Career
64 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.77 (3.66 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 42 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.384.05+0.5971
Fouls / match24.721.8+2.54
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.260.17+1.1792
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
34' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-11 40 180 44'–
2026-02-28 50 260 57'7
2026-02-24 50 301 25'15
2026-02-10 · Southampton 10 240 30'10
2026-01-31 40 300 56'5
2026-01-21 20 210 51'9
2025-12-26 62 300 29'10
2025-12-20 60 220 30'8
2025-12-09 11 180 39'8
2025-11-29 · Southampton 30 171 36'8