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Championship · Matchweek 39
WatfordWatford
0–0
FT
Leicester CityLEI

Momentum

– WatfordLEI –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
39

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Edward Still · Gary Rowett
Position
9 · 23
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Joshua Smith

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
13.3° (feels 11.6°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
36%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

LWDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 8 · xG 8.28–6.24 · xPts 8.39

  • W H Wrexham 3–1 xG 1.57–0.33 UK CHAMP
  • L A Stoke City 1–3 xG 1.64–2.11 UK CHAMP
  • D A Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 xG 2.21–1.54 UK CHAMP
  • W A Bristol City 2–1 xG 1.37–0.95 UK CHAMP
  • L H Ipswich Town 0–2 xG 1.5–1.31 UK CHAMP

Leicester City

DLDWL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 3.33–8.18 · xPts 3.75

  • L H Queens Park Rangers 1–3 xG 0.51–1.41 UK CHAMP
  • W H Bristol City 2–0 xG 1.24–1.13 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 1–1 xG 0.38–2.67 UK CHAMP
  • L H Norwich City 0–2 xG 0.57–1.58 UK CHAMP
  • D A Middlesbrough 1–1 xG 0.64–1.39 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 33 matches since 2005

Watford 105 draws18 Leicester City

Goals 41–68 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 70%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 22 draws6 Leicester City

Goals 10–22 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 11 draws3 Leicester City

Goals 4–10 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Watford 0–0 Leicester City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Leicester City 1–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–2 Leicester City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Leicester City 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–5 Leicester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Leicester City 4–1 Watford UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
  • L Leicester City 4–2 Watford UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Watford 1–1 Leicester City UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Leicester City 2–0 Watford UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 Leicester City neutral UK PL · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Leicester City all · 46Leicester City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.131.04
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 612 / 16 / 185 / 9 / 9
Goals for / match1.151.301.261.17
Goals against / match1.411.171.481.48
Clean sheets15%22%13%13%
Failed to score30%30%20%17%
Both teams scored59%52%72%74%
Over 2.548%44%54%56%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.281.22
xG against / match1.251.151.471.67
xG difference0.100.34-0.19-0.45
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.19-0.02-0.05
xPts / match1.431.571.261.12
Points vs xPts-0.200.04-0.13-0.08
Game state
Scored first26%30%48%35%
PPG when scoring first2.332.711.731.88
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.550.57
Came back from behind47%60%33%40%
Leads held67%91%46%50%
Minutes leading18%25%26%19%
Minutes level49%48%43%45%
Minutes trailing34%27%31%36%
First goal (min)48424051
First goal conceded (min)34363934
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%48%59%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%50%44%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.370.43
Late goals against0.280.220.280.26
Style
Possession51%52%52%50%
Shots13.815.712.912.0
On target4.45.44.24.3
Shot conversion8%8%10%10%
Shots inside box58%57%59%66%
Big chances created2.12.41.71.5
Corners4.95.45.34.4
xG from set plays27%23%34%38%
Goals from headers14%17%12%11%
Pressure index10.912.412.69.9
Dominant minutes47.052.247.141.7
Pass accuracy80%81%80%79%
Fouls11.011.110.810.9
Cards2.151.871.962.17

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Leicester City

0–15'1412
16–30'86
31–45'816
46–60'88
61–75'313
76–90'1713

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Leicester City

No pressure profile yet.

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Leicester City

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-145 98%1.131.271.491.291.48
4-3-31 2%1.01.01.00.851.11

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 48% P 47%3.6Draw 26% P 26%3.6Away 26% P 27%

Double Chance

1.28Watford or Draw 37% P 36%1.28Watford or Leicester 37% P 37%1.8Draw or Leicester 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 54%2.0No 46% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home47%46%44%-1.8
Draw26%28%30%+1.8
Away27%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Joshua Smith

Career
156 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.95 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 122 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.05+0.4563
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.21
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.42 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.2667
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-14 51 210 36'11
2026-03-08 –– 12– –5
2026-02-22 82 310 16'9
2026-02-15 30 150 45'6
2026-02-07 71 231 13'6
2026-01-31 30 150 25'12
2026-01-24 50 191 22'7
2026-01-16 20 150 69'5
2026-01-10 –– 12– –7
2026-01-01 50 170 15'7