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Championship · Matchweek 40
SouthamptonSouthampton
2–2
FT
Ipswich TownIpswich Town

Momentum

– SouthamptonIpswich Town –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
40

Venue

Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Capacity
32,384
Surface
grass
Attendance
31,180

Teams

Coaches
Tonda Eckert · Kieran McKenna
Position
5 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Thomas Kirk

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
12.5° (feels 10.9°)
Wind
6.2
Humidity
43%

Where to watch · 185

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Southampton

WWWDL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 6 · xG 8.35–6.21 · xPts 8.16

  • L A Manchester City 1–2 xG 0.23–2.03 UK FA Cup
  • D H Bristol City 2–2 xG 2.73–0.8 UK CHAMP
  • W A Swansea City 2–1 xG 1.59–1.39 UK CHAMP
  • W H Blackburn Rovers 3–0 xG 2.23–0.32 UK CHAMP
  • W H Derby County 2–1 xG 1.57–1.68 UK CHAMP

Ipswich Town

WLDWD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 8.52–7.0 · xPts 7.74

  • D A West Bromwich Albion 0–0 xG 0.76–1.41 UK CHAMP
  • W A Charlton Athletic 2–1 xG 2.52–0.27 UK CHAMP
  • D H Middlesbrough 2–2 xG 2.22–2.55 UK CHAMP
  • L A Portsmouth 0–2 xG 0.97–1.88 UK CHAMP
  • W A Norwich City 2–0 xG 2.05–0.9 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 23 matches since 2000

Southampton 79 draws7 Ipswich Town

Goals 35–35 · 3.04 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 56%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Southampton 35 draws2 Ipswich Town

Goals 16–13 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Southampton 13 draws1 Ipswich Town

Goals 8–8 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Southampton 2–2 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Ipswich Town 1–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 1–2 Southampton UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Southampton 1–1 Ipswich Town UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Ipswich Town 3–2 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Southampton 0–1 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 0–1 Southampton neutral UK FA Cup · 3rd Round Replays
  • D Southampton 1–1 Ipswich Town UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
  • D Southampton 1–1 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 2–5 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricSouthampton all · 48Southampton at home · 24Ipswich Town all · 46Ipswich Town away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.961.831.48
W / D / L23 / 15 / 1013 / 8 / 323 / 15 / 89 / 7 / 7
Goals for / match1.751.671.741.61
Goals against / match1.190.831.021.30
Clean sheets25%42%37%30%
Failed to score12%17%13%17%
Both teams scored71%54%56%61%
Over 2.562%54%52%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.781.831.59
xG against / match1.331.091.031.22
xG difference0.380.690.800.36
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.11-0.090.02
xPts / match1.591.781.881.61
Points vs xPts0.160.18-0.06-0.13
Game state
Scored first52%50%54%39%
PPG when scoring first2.242.672.682.78
PPG when conceding first1.261.330.780.58
Came back from behind54%67%60%46%
Leads held72%81%79%75%
Minutes leading34%36%33%21%
Minutes level49%48%50%53%
Minutes trailing18%16%17%26%
First goal (min)40394050
First goal conceded (min)44404035
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%49%59%76%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%55%51%47%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.250.500.52
Late goals against0.270.170.130.22
Style
Possession56%58%56%56%
Shots14.415.815.113.7
On target5.35.55.14.5
Shot conversion12%11%12%12%
Shots inside box68%66%67%66%
Big chances created2.92.92.82.2
Corners5.86.55.75.2
xG from set plays28%26%32%36%
Goals from headers22%25%12%19%
Pressure index17.921.118.816.9
Dominant minutes59.063.862.357.8
Pass accuracy83%84%81%80%
Fouls10.79.811.212.0
Cards1.881.631.932.48

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Southampton

0–15'135
16–30'178
31–45'79
46–60'1710
61–75'1212
76–90'1713

Ipswich Town

0–15'124
16–30'56
31–45'1613
46–60'149
61–75'109
76–90'236

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Southampton · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.267
Late push (76+, level)+0.393

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.037
When behind+0.622
10 min after conceding-0.187
10 min after scoring+0.297

Situations

At home+0.034
Away+0.363
3 days rest or fewer+0.252
4+ days rest+0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.234
v bottom-tier opponents+0.123
As favourite+0.206

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead+0.166
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level +0.16 · Behind vs level +0.59

Ipswich Town · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.494
Late push (76+, level)-0.762

Game state

When ahead+0.003
When level-0.364
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.143

Situations

At home-0.202
Away-0.302
4+ days rest-0.254

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.202
v mid-tier opponents-0.282
As underdog-0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.034
Conceded when ahead-0.363
Conceded late (76+)-0.123

Ahead vs level +0.36 · Behind vs level +0.12

Southampton

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 2 · scoring 8 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-120 42%2.051.950.951.521.23
3-4-2-117 35%1.181.651.651.951.44
3-4-34 8%1.51.51.51.071.7
5-4-12 4%2.01.50.02.420.33
4-2-2-22 4%2.02.01.52.560.86

Ipswich Town

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-145 98%1.841.761.021.841.03
4-4-1-11 2%1.01.01.01.271.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.1Home 44% P 44%3.4Draw 27% P 27%3.2Away 29% P 29%

Double Chance

1.33Southampton or Draw 35%1.3Southampton or Ipswich 36%1.61Draw or Ipswich 29%

Draw No Bet

1.571 59%2.252 41%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 56%2.1Under 45% P 44%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 25%2.629 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 24%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 52%1.83Under 50% P 48%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home44%44%43%-0.3
Draw27%28%30%+2.4
Away29%29%26%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Thomas Kirk

Career
51 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.55 (4.39 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.444.05+0.7074
Fouls / match21.721.8-0.12
Fouls per card4.95.4-0.98 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.210.17+0.3974
Time added8.07.2+0.9178
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-21 50 221 34'8
2026-04-19 20 200 75'10
2026-04-11 70 200 26'8
2026-04-06 40 120 13'9
2026-03-21 20 160 38'2
2026-03-14 30 190 51'10
2026-03-10 · Ipswich Town 40 271 42'8
2026-03-02 60 230 58'9
2026-02-22 81 321 15'11
2026-02-15 70 291 33'7