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Championship · Matchweek 41
Derby CountyDerby County
2–0
FT
Stoke CityStoke City

Momentum

– Derby CountyStoke City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
41

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
31,095

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Mark Robins
Position
8 · 12
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Elliot Bell

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
15.1° (feels 13.8°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
41%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

WLWWL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 7.54–5.94 · xPts 8.1

  • L A Coventry City 2–3 xG 1.75–1.33 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 1–0 xG 1.91–0.25 UK CHAMP
  • W A Portsmouth 1–0 xG 1.29–2.18 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–1 xG 0.88–1.64 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 xG 1.71–0.54 UK CHAMP

Stoke City

LDWLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 9 · xG 10.25–7.67 · xPts 8.38

  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 xG 2.5–1.72 UK CHAMP
  • L A Preston North End 1–3 xG 1.25–1.81 UK CHAMP
  • W H Watford 3–1 xG 2.11–1.64 UK CHAMP
  • D H Ipswich Town 3–3 xG 2.87–1.24 UK CHAMP
  • L A Swansea City 0–2 xG 1.52–1.25 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 17 matches since 2005

Derby County 64 draws7 Stoke City

Goals 19–20 · 2.29 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 53%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 43 draws3 Stoke City

Goals 14–10 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 21 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 6–6 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Derby County 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 3–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 0–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 1–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 0–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 4–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 2–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Stoke City all · 46Stoke City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.501.571.200.96
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 715 / 10 / 216 / 4 / 13
Goals for / match1.461.351.110.74
Goals against / match1.281.171.221.22
Clean sheets26%30%28%30%
Failed to score9%4%37%52%
Both teams scored65%65%44%26%
Over 2.552%39%44%30%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.241.03
xG against / match1.321.111.431.67
xG difference-0.090.16-0.19-0.63
Finishing vs xG0.230.07-0.13-0.30
xPts / match1.331.471.281.01
Points vs xPts0.170.09-0.08-0.05
Game state
Scored first54%52%44%35%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.252.38
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.270.08
Came back from behind35%46%22%7%
Leads held69%71%71%75%
Minutes leading30%29%24%16%
Minutes level46%46%50%51%
Minutes trailing24%25%27%32%
First goal (min)40453742
First goal conceded (min)40364440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%55%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%62%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.150.04
Late goals against0.300.260.350.35
Style
Possession44%48%52%51%
Shots11.011.911.29.8
On target3.63.73.82.8
Shot conversion13%11%10%8%
Shots inside box70%65%65%62%
Big chances created2.22.31.81.4
Corners4.55.56.05.6
xG from set plays39%44%28%19%
Goals from headers28%32%16%19%
Pressure index10.111.613.310.2
Dominant minutes39.945.752.748.2
Pass accuracy73%77%78%78%
Fouls12.311.910.410.2
Cards2.632.302.302.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.66Home 56% P 55%3.9Draw 24% P 25%4.75Away 20% P 20%

Double Chance

1.22Derby or Draw 39%1.28Derby or Stoke 37%1.9Draw or Stoke 25%

Draw No Bet

1.281 73%3.52 27%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51%1.9No 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home55%56%53%-2.8
Draw25%25%26%+1.0
Away20%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Elliot Bell

Career
25 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.6 (4.48 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
24.2 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.04
Cards to home side
55%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 20 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.64.05+0.9986
Fouls / match22.421.8+0.43
Fouls per card4.95.4-1.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.050.17-1.762
Time added8.37.2+1.2592
First card
39' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
56% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-10 60 230 31'12
2026-03-03 70 290 13'7
2026-02-07 40 200 53'8
2026-01-20 40 220 14'5
2026-01-11 40 230 55'6
2025-12-20 30 220 31'10
2025-11-01 50 300 32'6
2025-10-25 · Derby County 40 230 69'13
2025-10-22 41 240 37'8
2025-09-30 40 160 25'6