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Championship · Matchweek 41
Ipswich TownIpswich Town
2–1
FT
Birmingham CityBRC

Momentum

– Ipswich TownBRC –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
41

Venue

Stadium
Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich
Capacity
29,673
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,381

Teams

Coaches
Kieran McKenna · Chris Davies
Position
4 · 14
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Adam Herczeg

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
13.0° (feels 11.6°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
48%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Ipswich Town

WDDWD 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 10.32–5.59 · xPts 9.95

  • D H Millwall 1–1 xG 2.07–1.52 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 xG 2.69–0.47 UK CHAMP
  • D A Stoke City 3–3 xG 1.24–2.87 UK CHAMP
  • D H Leicester City 1–1 xG 2.67–0.38 UK CHAMP
  • W H Hull City 1–0 xG 1.66–0.35 UK CHAMP

Birmingham City

LWDLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 2 GA 4 · xG 5.44–6.45 · xPts 6.04

  • L H Blackburn Rovers 0–1 xG 1.09–1.66 UK CHAMP
  • L A Derby County 0–1 xG 0.25–1.91 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield United 1–1 xG 1.66–1.22 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 1–0 xG 2.04–0.59 UK CHAMP
  • L A Charlton Athletic 0–1 xG 0.39–1.08 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 24 matches since 2006

Ipswich Town 810 draws6 Birmingham City

Goals 33–30 · 2.63 per match · BTTS 71% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Ipswich Town 35 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 14–12 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Ipswich Town 23 draws0 Birmingham City

Goals 9–6 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Ipswich Town 2–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 1–1 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 3–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 2–2 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Ipswich Town 1–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 2–2 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 1–0 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 1–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Ipswich Town 1–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 2–1 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricIpswich Town all · 46Ipswich Town at home · 23Birmingham City all · 46Birmingham City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.832.171.390.87
W / D / L23 / 15 / 814 / 8 / 117 / 13 / 165 / 5 / 13
Goals for / match1.741.871.240.78
Goals against / match1.020.741.221.48
Clean sheets37%44%22%13%
Failed to score13%9%24%39%
Both teams scored56%52%56%48%
Over 2.552%56%46%44%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.832.071.491.07
xG against / match1.030.841.141.27
xG difference0.801.230.35-0.21
Finishing vs xG-0.09-0.20-0.25-0.28
xPts / match1.882.161.571.23
Points vs xPts-0.060.02-0.18-0.36
Game state
Scored first54%70%50%22%
PPG when scoring first2.682.622.352.40
PPG when conceding first0.781.170.410.44
Came back from behind60%86%33%32%
Leads held79%82%71%83%
Minutes leading33%45%28%11%
Minutes level50%48%42%38%
Minutes trailing17%8%31%51%
First goal (min)40323952
First goal conceded (min)40463527
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%44%49%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%59%39%32%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.480.240.30
Late goals against0.130.040.150.13
Style
Possession56%56%54%52%
Shots15.116.513.69.9
On target5.15.74.12.6
Shot conversion12%11%9%8%
Shots inside box67%68%64%67%
Big chances created2.83.52.41.8
Corners5.76.25.85.0
xG from set plays32%29%30%33%
Goals from headers12%5%21%17%
Pressure index18.820.714.410.4
Dominant minutes62.366.754.344.6
Pass accuracy81%81%77%77%
Fouls11.210.311.712.3
Cards1.931.392.112.22

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ipswich Town

0–15'124
16–30'56
31–45'1613
46–60'149
61–75'109
76–90'236

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ipswich Town · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.494
Late push (76+, level)-0.762

Game state

When ahead+0.003
When level-0.364
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.143

Situations

At home-0.202
Away-0.302
4+ days rest-0.254

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.202
v mid-tier opponents-0.282
As underdog-0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.034
Conceded when ahead-0.363
Conceded late (76+)-0.123

Ahead vs level +0.36 · Behind vs level +0.12

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Ipswich Town

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-145 98%1.841.761.021.841.03
4-4-1-11 2%1.01.01.01.271.19

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.57Home 60% P 62%3.9Draw 24% P 22%6.0Away 16% P 16%

Double Chance

1.14Ipswich or Draw 42%1.25Ipswich or Birmingham 38%2.3Draw or Birmingham 21%

Draw No Bet

1.221 77%4.02 23%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50%1.83No 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 53%1.9Under 50% P 47%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 60–62.5% · away 15–17.5% · 649 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home62%61%62%+0.4
Draw22%23%23%+0.7
Away16%16%15%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 58%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%54%+0.8

Adam Herczeg

Career
41 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.66 (3.54 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.05-0.2645
Fouls / match22.321.8+0.38
Fouls per card5.75.4+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4422
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-17 20 200 81'10
2026-03-11 20 200 39'7
2026-02-28 40 160 57'8
2026-02-24 40 280 2'7
2026-02-10 · Birmingham City 60 260 16'7
2026-02-07 40 260 71'8
2026-01-24 20 150 45'7
2026-01-21 41 210 45'7
2026-01-10 10 180 81'5
2025-12-29 60 240 13'6