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Championship · Matchweek 42
Oxford UnitedOXF
2–0
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– OXFWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
42

Venue

Stadium
The Kassam Stadium, Oxford
Capacity
12,500
Surface
grass
Attendance
11,223

Teams

Coaches
Matt Bloomfield · Edward Still
Position
23 · 12
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

Stephen Martin

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
10.4° (feels 9.0°)
Wind
10.3
Humidity
54%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Oxford United

WDLDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 7.76–5.62 · xPts 8.09

  • D A Portsmouth 2–2 xG 0.89–0.97 UK CHAMP
  • D H Hull City 1–1 xG 3.18–0.68 UK CHAMP
  • L A Southampton 0–2 xG 0.68–2.29 UK CHAMP
  • D H Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.45–0.93 UK CHAMP
  • W H Blackburn Rovers 1–0 xG 1.56–0.75 UK CHAMP

Watford

LWDLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 5.84–9.13 · xPts 5.18

  • D H Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.58–2.3 UK CHAMP
  • L A Queens Park Rangers 1–2 xG 0.72–2.51 UK CHAMP
  • D H Leicester City 0–0 xG 0.33–1.88 UK CHAMP
  • W H Wrexham 3–1 xG 1.57–0.33 UK CHAMP
  • L A Stoke City 1–3 xG 1.64–2.11 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 4 matches since 2024

Oxford United 20 draws2 Watford

Goals 4–3 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Last 10 · 4 matches

Oxford United 20 draws2 Watford

Goals 4–3 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Last 5 · 4 matches

Oxford United 20 draws2 Watford

Goals 4–3 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Recent meetings

  • W Oxford United 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–1 Oxford United UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Oxford United 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–0 Oxford United UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricOxford United all · 46Oxford United at home · 23Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.021.261.240.87
W / D / L11 / 14 / 217 / 8 / 814 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match0.981.041.151.00
Goals against / match1.281.171.411.65
Clean sheets17%22%15%9%
Failed to score41%39%30%30%
Both teams scored52%48%59%65%
Over 2.546%44%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.171.361.341.19
xG against / match1.431.171.251.34
xG difference-0.250.190.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG-0.20-0.32-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.211.481.431.30
Points vs xPts-0.19-0.22-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first39%44%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.062.402.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.220.270.840.59
Came back from behind19%27%47%35%
Leads held58%70%67%40%
Minutes leading21%23%18%10%
Minutes level47%47%49%50%
Minutes trailing32%30%34%40%
First goal (min)28264853
First goal conceded (min)35333432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half38%38%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half41%41%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.150.170.300.30
Late goals against0.150.040.280.35
Style
Possession40%42%51%51%
Shots11.914.113.812.0
On target3.44.24.43.5
Shot conversion8%7%8%8%
Shots inside box54%55%58%58%
Big chances created1.61.72.12.0
Corners4.04.64.94.4
xG from set plays40%46%27%31%
Goals from headers16%12%14%9%
Pressure index6.49.110.99.5
Dominant minutes33.744.247.041.8
Pass accuracy69%69%80%79%
Fouls10.810.511.010.8
Cards1.671.302.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Oxford United

0–15'1013
16–30'108
31–45'814
46–60'511
61–75'56
76–90'77

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Oxford United

No pressure profile yet.

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Oxford United

Current: winless 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-127 59%1.070.931.191.31.37
4-4-26 13%0.831.331.51.331.73
3-4-2-14 9%1.00.751.50.781.22
5-4-14 9%1.01.01.50.841.78
4-1-4-13 6%1.331.01.00.881.11

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -2.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 41% P 40%3.2Draw 29% P 29%3.2Away 29% P 32%

Double Chance

1.36Oxford Utd or Draw 35%1.36Oxford Utd or Watford 35%1.57Draw or Watford 30%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51%1.9No 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 46%1.72Under 55% P 54%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 30–32.5% · 800 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home40%39%39%-0.2
Draw29%30%31%+1.5
Away32%31%30%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 44%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Stephen Martin

Career
78 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.68 (4.58 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
22.9 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 72 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.64.05+0.9986
Fouls / match23.021.8+1.06
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.59 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.110.17-0.9412
Time added7.77.2+0.5667
First card
35' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-03 80 280 5'8
2026-03-21 40 251 30'5
2026-03-14 60 190 35'8
2026-03-10 70 201 7'6
2026-02-21 30 210 17'7
2026-02-14 50 260 36'15
2026-01-31 · Oxford United 40 190 22'7
2026-01-20 51 250 45'10
2026-01-10 30 211 14'5
2026-01-05 10 160 77'7