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Championship · Matchweek 42
SouthamptonSouthampton
2–1
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– SouthamptonDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
42

Venue

Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Capacity
32,384
Surface
grass
Attendance
31,206

Teams

Coaches
Tonda Eckert · John Eustace
Position
6 · 8
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Andrew Kitchen

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
11.6° (feels 10.1°)
Wind
11.8
Humidity
51%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Southampton

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 12 GA 3 · xG 8.19–7.73 · xPts 7.25

  • W A Wrexham 5–1 xG 2.31–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • W H Arsenal 2–1 xG 0.81–1.82 UK FA Cup
  • W H Oxford United 2–0 xG 2.29–0.68 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 1–0 xG 0.72–1.04 UK CHAMP
  • W A Coventry City 2–1 xG 2.05–3.31 UK CHAMP

Derby County

LWWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 4 · xG 8.94–6.0 · xPts 8.57

  • W H Stoke City 2–0 xG 3.11–0.59 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 2–3 xG 1.75–1.33 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 1–0 xG 1.91–0.25 UK CHAMP
  • W A Portsmouth 1–0 xG 1.29–2.18 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–1 xG 0.88–1.64 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 18 matches since 2000

Southampton 69 draws3 Derby County

Goals 27–20 · 2.61 per match · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Southampton 45 draws1 Derby County

Goals 18–12 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Southampton 23 draws0 Derby County

Goals 11–6 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Southampton 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Southampton 2–2 Derby County pens None–None UK FA Cup · 3rd Round Replays
  • D Derby County 2–2 Southampton neutral UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
  • W Southampton 4–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Southampton 1–1 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–3 Southampton pens None–None UK CHAMP · Play-offs - 1st Round · leg 2/2
  • L Southampton 1–2 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Play-offs - 1st Round · leg 1/2
MetricSouthampton all · 48Southampton at home · 24Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.961.501.43
W / D / L23 / 15 / 1013 / 8 / 320 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.751.671.461.57
Goals against / match1.190.831.281.39
Clean sheets25%42%26%22%
Failed to score12%17%9%13%
Both teams scored71%54%65%65%
Over 2.562%54%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.781.231.18
xG against / match1.331.091.321.54
xG difference0.380.69-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.110.230.38
xPts / match1.591.781.331.18
Points vs xPts0.160.180.170.25
Game state
Scored first52%50%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.242.672.242.15
PPG when conceding first1.261.330.620.50
Came back from behind54%67%35%23%
Leads held72%81%69%67%
Minutes leading34%36%30%32%
Minutes level49%48%46%46%
Minutes trailing18%16%24%22%
First goal (min)40394035
First goal conceded (min)44404045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%49%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%55%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.250.260.26
Late goals against0.270.170.300.35
Style
Possession56%58%44%40%
Shots14.415.811.010.0
On target5.35.53.63.4
Shot conversion12%11%13%16%
Shots inside box68%66%70%77%
Big chances created2.92.92.22.2
Corners5.86.54.53.6
xG from set plays28%26%39%33%
Goals from headers22%25%28%25%
Pressure index17.921.110.18.6
Dominant minutes59.063.839.934.2
Pass accuracy83%84%73%70%
Fouls10.79.812.312.8
Cards1.881.632.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Southampton

0–15'135
16–30'178
31–45'79
46–60'1710
61–75'1212
76–90'1713

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Southampton · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.267
Late push (76+, level)+0.393

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.037
When behind+0.622
10 min after conceding-0.187
10 min after scoring+0.297

Situations

At home+0.034
Away+0.363
3 days rest or fewer+0.252
4+ days rest+0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.234
v bottom-tier opponents+0.123
As favourite+0.206

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead+0.166
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level +0.16 · Behind vs level +0.59

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Southampton

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 2 · scoring 8 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-120 42%2.051.950.951.521.23
3-4-2-117 35%1.181.651.651.951.44
3-4-34 8%1.51.51.51.071.7
4-1-4-12 4%3.01.50.51.392.18
5-4-12 4%2.01.50.02.420.33

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -2.9h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.65Home 56% P 59%3.9Draw 24% P 23%4.75Away 20% P 18%

Double Chance

1.18Southampton or Draw 40%1.25Southampton or Derby 38%2.2Draw or Derby 22%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51%1.9No 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 55%2.0Under 47% P 45%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 47%1.83Under 50% P 53%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 57.5–60% · away 17.5–20% · 511 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home59%59%60%+1.3
Draw23%23%24%+1.3
Away18%18%16%-2.6

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 57%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.555%54%54%+0.8

Andrew Kitchen

Career
95 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
3.09 (3.01 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
22.4 · 7.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.18
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 78 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.334.05-1.318
Fouls / match22.821.8+0.84
Fouls per card7.05.4+2.15 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.17+0.0155
Time added7.57.2+0.3357
First card
43' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-06 40 240 33'7
2026-03-14 11 150 59'10
2026-03-06 20 190 22'9
2026-02-28 20 130 90'10
2026-02-24 20 200 43'9
2026-02-14 · Derby County 50 320 27'7
2026-01-31 21 191 15'16
2026-01-20 30 190 19'6
2026-01-17 40 210 25'7
2025-12-26 30 191 65'6