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Championship · Matchweek 43
MillwallMillwall
2–0
FT
Queens Park RangersQPR

Momentum

– MillwallQPR –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
43

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass
Attendance
18,934

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · Julien Stéphan
Position
3 · 11
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Tom Nield

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
17.0° (feels 15.9°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
43%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

LDWLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 6.24–11.66 · xPts 4.09

  • D A West Bromwich Albion 0–0 xG 1.44–1.98 UK CHAMP
  • L H Norwich City 1–2 xG 1.18–1.92 UK CHAMP
  • W A Middlesbrough 2–1 xG 1.07–3.62 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 1–1 xG 1.52–2.07 UK CHAMP
  • L H Blackburn Rovers 1–2 xG 1.03–2.07 UK CHAMP

Queens Park Rangers

WWWDD 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 7.58–4.45 · xPts 8.95

  • D H Bristol City 0–0 xG 1.02–1.2 UK CHAMP
  • D A Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.2–0.53 UK CHAMP
  • W H Watford 2–1 xG 2.51–0.72 UK CHAMP
  • W H Portsmouth 6–1 xG 1.43–1.49 UK CHAMP
  • W A Leicester City 3–1 xG 1.41–0.51 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 24 matches since 2005

Millwall 89 draws7 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 30–28 · 2.42 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Millwall 62 draws2 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 14–9 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Millwall 31 draws1 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Millwall 2–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Queens Park Rangers 1–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–1 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Queens Park Rangers 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Queens Park Rangers 2–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Queens Park Rangers 1–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 0–2 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Queens Park Rangers 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 48Millwall at home · 24Queens Park Rangers all · 46Queens Park Rangers away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.751.261.09
W / D / L24 / 12 / 1213 / 3 / 816 / 10 / 206 / 7 / 10
Goals for / match1.331.381.330.91
Goals against / match1.061.131.591.57
Clean sheets40%46%22%26%
Failed to score21%21%28%39%
Both teams scored48%38%63%52%
Over 2.546%50%63%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.501.631.300.98
xG against / match1.331.151.331.45
xG difference0.180.49-0.03-0.47
Finishing vs xG-0.17-0.260.02-0.07
xPts / match1.471.631.371.07
Points vs xPts0.280.12-0.110.02
Game state
Scored first52%58%33%17%
PPG when scoring first2.602.572.473.00
PPG when conceding first0.790.560.600.60
Came back from behind43%27%26%33%
Leads held86%87%84%100%
Minutes leading27%34%20%10%
Minutes level56%50%46%48%
Minutes trailing17%16%34%42%
First goal (min)44374550
First goal conceded (min)43443423
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%52%57%62%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%48%28%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.330.390.26
Late goals against0.350.460.260.04
Style
Possession48%50%46%45%
Shots12.913.512.711.1
On target4.24.64.13.2
Shot conversion10%10%10%8%
Shots inside box68%71%63%63%
Big chances created2.32.41.81.2
Corners5.76.24.84.3
xG from set plays33%36%31%34%
Goals from headers16%19%17%20%
Pressure index11.914.811.77.9
Dominant minutes44.449.746.738.9
Pass accuracy70%72%76%76%
Fouls12.610.911.010.8
Cards1.901.381.911.70

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Queens Park Rangers

0–15'712
16–30'711
31–45'1215
46–60'716
61–75'107
76–90'1812

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Queens Park Rangers · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.29) · stands out: as favourite +0.67

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.297
Early press (0-15, level)+0.047
Late push (76+, level)-0.093

Game state

When ahead+0.414
When level+0.367
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.325
10 min after scoring+0.394

Situations

At home+0.203
Away+0.354
3 days rest or fewer-0.172
4+ days rest+0.475

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.172
v bottom-tier opponents+0.475
As favourite+0.673
Evenly matched+0.083

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.077
Conceded when ahead-0.324
Conceded late (76+)-0.397

Congested vs rested -0.65 · Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level -0.59

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34

Queens Park Rangers

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-123 50%1.391.261.481.321.24
4-4-223 50%1.131.391.71.281.42

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.6h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.7Home 55% P 56%3.8Draw 25% P 24%4.75Away 20% P 20%

Double Chance

1.18Millwall or Draw 40%1.25Millwall or QPR 38%2.1Draw or QPR 22%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51%1.9No 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 54%2.0Under 47% P 46%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.612 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

3.52.0Over 46% P 51%1.72Under 54% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home56%56%53%-2.8
Draw24%25%26%+1.0
Away20%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.554%54%54%+0.8

Tom Nield

Career
79 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.86 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.114.05+0.1057
Fouls / match23.321.8+1.27
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.29 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.140.17-0.4720
Time added7.67.2+0.4463
First card
37' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-03 20 271 29'10
2026-03-13 20 200 62'9
2026-03-10 50 241 36'5
2026-03-07 20 140 83'5
2026-02-28 · Queens Park Rangers 40 190 79'6
2026-01-30 20 240 11'8
2026-01-24 61 261 39'11
2026-01-17 –– 24– –7
2026-01-10 50 320 34'9
2026-01-01 · Millwall 40 170 30'8