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Championship · Matchweek 43
WrexhamWrexham
2–0
FT
Stoke CityStoke City

Momentum

– WrexhamStoke City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
43

Venue

Stadium
Racecourse Ground, Racecourse Ground
Capacity
10,771
Surface
grass
Attendance
10,633

Teams

Coaches
Phil Parkinson · Mark Robins
Position
8 · 16
Formation
5-3-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Adam Herczeg

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
12.5° (feels 11.5°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
66%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Wrexham

LWDLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 13 · xG 4.48–10.3 · xPts 3.37

  • L A Birmingham City 0–2 xG 0.11–2.24 UK CHAMP
  • L H Southampton 1–5 xG 0.89–2.31 UK CHAMP
  • D A West Bromwich Albion 2–2 xG 1.83–1.83 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield United 2–1 xG 1.32–2.35 UK CHAMP
  • L A Watford 1–3 xG 0.33–1.57 UK CHAMP

Stoke City

WLWLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 8.25–8.95 · xPts 6.92

  • D H Blackburn Rovers 1–1 xG 1.8–0.67 UK CHAMP
  • L A Derby County 0–2 xG 0.59–3.11 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 xG 2.5–1.72 UK CHAMP
  • L A Preston North End 1–3 xG 1.25–1.81 UK CHAMP
  • W H Watford 3–1 xG 2.11–1.64 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 3 matches since 2015

Wrexham 10 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 3–4 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Wrexham 10 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 3–4 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Wrexham 10 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 3–4 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Recent meetings

  • W Wrexham 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–0 Wrexham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 3–1 Wrexham UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
MetricWrexham all · 46Wrexham at home · 23Stoke City all · 46Stoke City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.541.611.200.96
W / D / L19 / 14 / 1310 / 7 / 615 / 10 / 216 / 4 / 13
Goals for / match1.501.781.110.74
Goals against / match1.411.611.221.22
Clean sheets26%22%28%30%
Failed to score13%4%37%52%
Both teams scored65%74%44%26%
Over 2.550%56%44%30%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.221.541.241.03
xG against / match1.481.281.431.67
xG difference-0.260.26-0.19-0.63
Finishing vs xG0.280.24-0.13-0.30
xPts / match1.221.541.281.01
Points vs xPts0.320.07-0.08-0.05
Game state
Scored first52%56%44%35%
PPG when scoring first2.082.232.252.38
PPG when conceding first0.950.800.270.08
Came back from behind46%50%22%7%
Leads held63%62%71%75%
Minutes leading31%30%24%16%
Minutes level46%43%50%51%
Minutes trailing23%26%27%32%
First goal (min)37383742
First goal conceded (min)40374440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%49%55%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%51%62%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.370.480.150.04
Late goals against0.410.350.350.35
Style
Possession48%51%52%51%
Shots11.314.111.29.8
On target3.84.83.82.8
Shot conversion13%13%10%8%
Shots inside box66%68%65%62%
Big chances created2.32.81.81.4
Corners4.55.26.05.6
xG from set plays32%36%28%19%
Goals from headers29%38%16%19%
Pressure index10.113.113.310.2
Dominant minutes41.951.352.748.2
Pass accuracy78%80%78%78%
Fouls9.78.810.410.2
Cards1.591.262.302.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Wrexham

0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1212
46–60'138
61–75'79
76–90'1719

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Wrexham · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.02) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.16

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.027
Early press (0-15, level)-0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.044

Game state

When ahead+0.122
When level+0.017
When behind-0.034
10 min after conceding-0.135
10 min after scoring+0.135

Situations

At home+0.053
Away+0.004
3 days rest or fewer+0.073
4+ days rest-0.014

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.103
v bottom-tier opponents+0.163
As favourite+0.053
Evenly matched+0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.087
Conceded when ahead+0.062
Conceded late (76+)-0.165

Congested vs rested +0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.12 · Behind vs level -0.04

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Wrexham

Current: winless 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 50%1.611.571.391.171.25
3-5-28 17%0.50.881.880.962.43
3-5-1-16 13%1.51.171.51.641.12
3-4-1-23 6%1.671.331.01.341.59
3-1-4-23 6%2.332.00.670.91.43

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.6h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.7Home 55% P 52%3.8Draw 25% P 25%4.5Away 21% P 23%

Double Chance

1.18Wrexham or Draw 40%1.25Wrexham or Stoke 38%2.1Draw or Stoke 22%

Draw No Bet

1.281 73%3.52 27%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 54%2.1Under 45% P 46%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 51%1.8Under 51% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 22.5–25% · 500 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home52%51%53%+2.3
Draw25%25%23%-2.6
Away23%23%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.554%54%54%+0.8

Adam Herczeg

Career
41 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.66 (3.54 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.05-0.2645
Fouls / match22.321.8+0.38
Fouls per card5.75.4+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4422
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-06 20 300 38'10
2026-03-17 · Wrexham 20 200 81'10
2026-03-11 20 200 39'7
2026-02-28 40 160 57'8
2026-02-24 40 280 2'7
2026-02-10 60 260 16'7
2026-02-07 40 260 71'8
2026-01-24 20 150 45'7
2026-01-21 · Stoke City 41 210 45'7
2026-01-10 10 180 81'5