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Championship · Matchweek 44
Norwich CityNorwich City
2–1
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– Norwich CityDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
44

Venue

Stadium
Carrow Road, Norwich
Capacity
27,244
Surface
grass
Attendance
25,058

Teams

Coaches
Philippe Clement · John Eustace
Position
9 · 8
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Tom Reeves

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
6.9° (feels 4.7°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 184

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Norwich City

WDWLW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 7.31–6.82 · xPts 7.16

  • W A Bristol City 4–2 xG 2.1–1.61 UK CHAMP
  • L H Ipswich Town 0–2 xG 0.9–2.05 UK CHAMP
  • W A Millwall 2–1 xG 1.92–1.18 UK CHAMP
  • D H Portsmouth 1–1 xG 0.54–0.47 UK CHAMP
  • W A Charlton Athletic 1–0 xG 1.86–1.51 UK CHAMP

Derby County

WLWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 9.8–4.64 · xPts 10.01

  • W H Oxford United 1–0 xG 1.35–0.88 UK CHAMP
  • L A Southampton 1–2 xG 1.68–1.57 UK CHAMP
  • W H Stoke City 2–0 xG 3.11–0.59 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 2–3 xG 1.75–1.33 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 1–0 xG 1.91–0.25 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 22 matches since 2005

Norwich City 76 draws9 Derby County

Goals 29–30 · 2.68 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Norwich City 33 draws4 Derby County

Goals 13–14 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Norwich City 31 draws1 Derby County

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Norwich City 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–0 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Norwich City 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–3 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–1 Norwich City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Norwich City 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Norwich City 3–4 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Norwich City 1–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricNorwich City all · 46Norwich City at home · 23Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.411.301.501.43
W / D / L19 / 8 / 199 / 3 / 1120 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.371.171.461.57
Goals against / match1.221.221.281.39
Clean sheets20%17%26%22%
Failed to score20%26%9%13%
Both teams scored61%56%65%65%
Over 2.548%44%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.351.411.231.18
xG against / match1.461.271.321.54
xG difference-0.100.14-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG0.02-0.240.230.38
xPts / match1.351.461.331.18
Points vs xPts0.06-0.160.170.25
Game state
Scored first52%48%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.082.092.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.680.580.620.50
Came back from behind27%21%35%23%
Leads held68%69%69%67%
Minutes leading28%24%30%32%
Minutes level48%53%46%46%
Minutes trailing24%24%24%22%
First goal (min)42494035
First goal conceded (min)46504045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%59%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half59%64%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.220.260.26
Late goals against0.300.300.300.35
Style
Possession54%56%44%40%
Shots12.613.711.010.0
On target4.54.53.63.4
Shot conversion11%9%13%16%
Shots inside box64%62%70%77%
Big chances created2.32.52.22.2
Corners5.35.74.53.6
xG from set plays25%27%39%33%
Goals from headers10%8%28%25%
Pressure index12.514.110.18.6
Dominant minutes53.258.839.934.2
Pass accuracy79%80%73%70%
Fouls10.210.012.312.8
Cards1.931.572.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Norwich City

0–15'78
16–30'87
31–45'128
46–60'913
61–75'156
76–90'1214

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Norwich City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.66

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.027
Early press (0-15, level)-0.197
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.364

Game state

When ahead+0.124
When level-0.147
When behind-0.054
10 min after conceding-0.277
10 min after scoring+0.665

Situations

At home-0.213
Away+0.114
3 days rest or fewer+0.082
4+ days rest-0.065

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.025
v bottom-tier opponents-0.142
As favourite-0.144
Evenly matched+0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.027
Conceded when ahead-0.134
Conceded late (76+)-0.146

Congested vs rested +0.14 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.10

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.287
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.183
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Norwich City

Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-138 83%1.451.391.181.291.43
3-4-2-15 11%1.41.41.21.551.6
3-4-32 4%0.01.02.51.911.56
3-2-4-11 2%3.01.00.01.861.51

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.2Home 43% P 43%3.4Draw 28% P 28%3.2Away 29% P 29%

Double Chance

1.36Norwich or Draw 35%1.3Norwich or Derby 37%1.66Draw or Derby 29%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54%2.0No 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 51%2.0Under 47% P 49%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home43%44%43%-0.3
Draw28%28%30%+2.4
Away29%29%26%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Tom Reeves

Career
26 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
3.04 (3.0 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
18.8 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
56%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 10 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.94.05-0.2839
Fouls / match21.221.8-0.59
Fouls per card5.45.4-0.17 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.3169
Time added8.17.2+1.0186
First card
36' on average
Card timing
20% in first 30' · 42% in last 15'
Cards to home side
56% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-14 40 261 50'7
2026-02-24 10 170 30'6
2026-02-14 · Norwich City 60 150 14'8
2026-01-10 20 170 60'5
2025-12-09 50 150 13'8
2025-12-07 30 200 30'8
2025-11-29 40 170 64'6
2025-11-25 · Norwich City 10 180 89'8
2025-10-18 31 210 7'9