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Championship · Matchweek 44
Stoke CityStoke City
1–3
FT
MillwallMillwall

Momentum

– Stoke CityMillwall –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
44

Venue

Stadium
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke
Capacity
30,089
Surface
grass
Attendance
20,961

Teams

Coaches
Mark Robins · Alex Neil
Position
17 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Joshua Smith

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
7.9° (feels 4.3°)
Wind
6.8
Humidity
73%

Where to watch · 184

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Stoke City

LWLDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 6.85–8.9 · xPts 5.99

  • L A Wrexham 0–2 xG 0.71–1.58 UK CHAMP
  • D H Blackburn Rovers 1–1 xG 1.8–0.67 UK CHAMP
  • L A Derby County 0–2 xG 0.59–3.11 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 xG 2.5–1.72 UK CHAMP
  • L A Preston North End 1–3 xG 1.25–1.81 UK CHAMP

Millwall

DWLDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 4 · xG 6.65–9.73 · xPts 5.73

  • W H Queens Park Rangers 2–0 xG 1.44–0.15 UK CHAMP
  • D A West Bromwich Albion 0–0 xG 1.44–1.98 UK CHAMP
  • L H Norwich City 1–2 xG 1.18–1.92 UK CHAMP
  • W A Middlesbrough 2–1 xG 1.07–3.62 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 1–1 xG 1.52–2.07 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 19 matches since 2005

Stoke City 55 draws9 Millwall

Goals 12–18 · 1.58 per match · BTTS 26% · over 2.5 21%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Stoke City 12 draws7 Millwall

Goals 5–13 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 20%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Stoke City 02 draws3 Millwall

Goals 2–7 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • L Stoke City 1–3 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 1–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 1–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 2–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 2–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricStoke City all · 46Stoke City at home · 23Millwall all · 48Millwall away · 24
Results
Matches46234824
Points per game1.201.431.751.75
W / D / L15 / 10 / 219 / 6 / 824 / 12 / 1211 / 9 / 4
Goals for / match1.111.481.331.29
Goals against / match1.221.221.061.00
Clean sheets28%26%40%33%
Failed to score37%22%21%21%
Both teams scored44%61%48%58%
Over 2.544%56%46%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.241.441.501.38
xG against / match1.431.191.331.51
xG difference-0.190.260.18-0.13
Finishing vs xG-0.130.03-0.17-0.08
xPts / match1.281.551.471.30
Points vs xPts-0.08-0.120.280.45
Game state
Scored first44%52%52%46%
PPG when scoring first2.252.172.602.64
PPG when conceding first0.270.560.791.00
Came back from behind22%38%43%60%
Leads held71%69%86%85%
Minutes leading24%31%27%20%
Minutes level50%48%56%61%
Minutes trailing27%21%17%18%
First goal (min)37344451
First goal conceded (min)44474342
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%50%61%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%75%67%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.150.260.350.38
Late goals against0.350.350.350.25
Style
Possession52%53%48%46%
Shots11.212.712.912.3
On target3.84.74.23.8
Shot conversion10%12%10%10%
Shots inside box65%67%68%65%
Big chances created1.82.12.32.2
Corners6.06.45.75.2
xG from set plays28%34%33%30%
Goals from headers16%15%16%13%
Pressure index13.316.311.99.1
Dominant minutes52.757.344.439.2
Pass accuracy78%79%70%69%
Fouls10.410.612.614.4
Cards2.302.261.902.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.5Home 21% P 21%4.0Draw 23% P 24%1.66Away 56% P 55%

Double Chance

1.9Stoke or Draw 25%1.25Stoke or Millwall 38%1.25Draw or Millwall 38%

Draw No Bet

2.751 34%1.42 66%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58%2.2No 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 58%2.2Under 43% P 42%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.612 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 52%1.83Under 50% P 48%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 55–57.5% · 207 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home21%21%18%-2.6
Draw24%23%25%+2.1
Away55%56%57%+0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 63%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Joshua Smith

Career
156 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.95 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 121 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.284.05+0.4163
Fouls / match22.221.8+0.28
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.36 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.2867
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-18 –– 19– –9
2026-04-14 20 130 5'6
2026-04-06 51 240 17'9
2026-03-21 70 211 12'9
2026-03-14 51 210 36'11
2026-03-08 –– 12– –5
2026-02-22 82 310 16'9
2026-02-15 · Stoke City 30 150 45'6
2026-02-07 71 231 13'6
2026-01-31 30 150 25'12