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Championship · Matchweek 45
MiddlesbroughMID
5–1
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– MIDWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
45

Venue

Stadium
Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Capacity
34,988
Surface
grass
Attendance
27,482

Teams

Coaches
Kim Hellberg · Edward Still
Position
5 · 15
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Adam Herczeg

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
11.8° (feels 10.9°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
73%

Where to watch · 185

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Middlesbrough

LDLDW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 12.45–6.92 · xPts 10.07

  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 xG 1.63–0.68 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 2–2 xG 2.55–2.22 UK CHAMP
  • L H Portsmouth 0–1 xG 1.53–0.66 UK CHAMP
  • D A Swansea City 2–2 xG 3.13–2.28 UK CHAMP
  • L H Millwall 1–2 xG 3.62–1.07 UK CHAMP

Watford

LDLLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 2 GA 10 · xG 5.79–9.05 · xPts 5.06

  • L A West Bromwich Albion 0–3 xG 0.79–1.83 UK CHAMP
  • L H Sheffield United 0–2 xG 1.34–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • L A Oxford United 0–2 xG 1.35–1.58 UK CHAMP
  • D H Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.58–2.3 UK CHAMP
  • L A Queens Park Rangers 1–2 xG 0.72–2.51 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 26 matches since 2006

Middlesbrough 85 draws13 Watford

Goals 32–35 · 2.58 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Middlesbrough 41 draws5 Watford

Goals 16–14 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Middlesbrough 20 draws3 Watford

Goals 9–8 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 3–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 3–1 Watford neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–3 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Middlesbrough 1–1 Watford neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–0 Middlesbrough neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMiddlesbrough all · 49Middlesbrough at home · 24Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches49244623
Points per game1.651.791.240.87
W / D / L22 / 15 / 1212 / 7 / 514 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.491.421.151.00
Goals against / match1.020.751.411.65
Clean sheets29%42%15%9%
Failed to score26%29%30%30%
Both teams scored55%46%59%65%
Over 2.553%42%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.591.621.341.19
xG against / match1.050.951.251.34
xG difference0.530.670.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG-0.10-0.21-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.701.801.431.30
Points vs xPts-0.04-0.01-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first53%54%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.462.622.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.670.710.840.59
Came back from behind46%38%47%35%
Leads held79%86%67%40%
Minutes leading32%33%18%10%
Minutes level49%52%49%50%
Minutes trailing19%15%34%40%
First goal (min)37384853
First goal conceded (min)46473432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%53%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%61%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.220.170.300.30
Late goals against0.290.290.280.35
Style
Possession59%60%51%51%
Shots16.217.313.812.0
On target4.85.24.43.5
Shot conversion9%8%8%8%
Shots inside box64%63%58%58%
Big chances created2.42.32.12.0
Corners6.87.84.94.4
xG from set plays24%30%27%31%
Goals from headers12%15%14%9%
Pressure index19.721.010.99.5
Dominant minutes63.163.147.041.8
Pass accuracy84%84%80%79%
Fouls9.39.211.010.8
Cards1.611.082.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Middlesbrough

0–15'97
16–30'1010
31–45'175
46–60'136
61–75'138
76–90'1113

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+0.294

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.237
When behind+1.004
10 min after conceding+0.276
10 min after scoring+0.697

Situations

At home+0.464
Away+0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.822
4+ days rest+0.205

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.415
v bottom-tier opponents+0.282
As favourite+0.435
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.116
Conceded late (76+)-0.417

Congested vs rested +0.62 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-114 29%1.431.140.931.521.11
4-2-3-111 22%2.452.00.731.541.13
4-2-2-28 16%0.750.630.881.921.08
4-4-25 10%2.42.41.61.131.07
4-3-33 6%2.331.670.01.250.75

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -2.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.38Home 68% P 62%5.0Draw 19% P 22%7.5Away 13% P 17%

Double Chance

1.1Middlesbrough or Draw 43%1.18Middlesbrough or Watford 40%2.75Draw or Watford 17%

Draw No Bet

1.121 84%6.02 16%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51%1.9No 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 59%2.5Under 38% P 41%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

3.52.2Over 42% P 48%1.61Under 58% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 60–62.5% · away 15–17.5% · 649 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home62%61%62%+0.4
Draw22%23%23%+0.7
Away17%16%15%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 58%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Adam Herczeg

Career
41 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.66 (3.54 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.05-0.2645
Fouls / match22.321.8+0.38
Fouls per card5.75.4+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4422
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-18 10 160 47'7
2026-04-06 20 300 38'10
2026-03-17 · Watford 20 200 81'10
2026-03-11 · Middlesbrough 20 200 39'7
2026-02-28 40 160 57'8
2026-02-24 40 280 2'7
2026-02-10 60 260 16'7
2026-02-07 40 260 71'8
2026-01-24 · Watford 20 150 45'7
2026-01-21 · Middlesbrough 41 210 45'7