KickoffDNA
0 live
Sign in
Championship · Matchweek 45
Queens Park RangersQPR
2–3
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– QPRDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
45

Venue

Stadium
MATRADE Loftus Road, London
Capacity
18,500
Surface
grass
Attendance
17,131

Teams

Coaches
Julien Stéphan · John Eustace
Position
13 · 8
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

John Busby

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
21.2° (feels 19.8°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
17%

Where to watch · 184

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Queens Park Rangers

WDDLL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 6 · xG 6.55–6.2 · xPts 6.94

  • L H Swansea City 1–2 xG 1.67–2.31 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–2 xG 0.15–1.44 UK CHAMP
  • D H Bristol City 0–0 xG 1.02–1.2 UK CHAMP
  • D A Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.2–0.53 UK CHAMP
  • W H Watford 2–1 xG 2.51–0.72 UK CHAMP

Derby County

LWLWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 8.85–5.93 · xPts 8.45

  • L A Norwich City 1–2 xG 0.96–1.55 UK CHAMP
  • W H Oxford United 1–0 xG 1.35–0.88 UK CHAMP
  • L A Southampton 1–2 xG 1.68–1.57 UK CHAMP
  • W H Stoke City 2–0 xG 3.11–0.59 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 2–3 xG 1.75–1.33 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 31 matches since 2005

Queens Park Rangers 118 draws12 Derby County

Goals 34–33 · 2.16 per match · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 29%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Queens Park Rangers 51 draws4 Derby County

Goals 13–10 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Queens Park Rangers 20 draws3 Derby County

Goals 7–6 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Queens Park Rangers 2–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Queens Park Rangers 4–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Queens Park Rangers 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–2 Queens Park Rangers neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Queens Park Rangers 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–1 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricQueens Park Rangers all · 46Queens Park Rangers at home · 23Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.261.431.501.43
W / D / L16 / 10 / 2010 / 3 / 1020 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.331.741.461.57
Goals against / match1.591.611.281.39
Clean sheets22%17%26%22%
Failed to score28%17%9%13%
Both teams scored63%74%65%65%
Over 2.563%78%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.301.631.231.18
xG against / match1.331.211.321.54
xG difference-0.030.42-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG0.020.110.230.38
xPts / match1.371.681.331.18
Points vs xPts-0.11-0.240.170.25
Game state
Scored first33%48%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.472.272.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.600.600.620.50
Came back from behind26%17%35%23%
Leads held84%77%69%67%
Minutes leading20%30%30%32%
Minutes level46%45%46%46%
Minutes trailing34%26%24%22%
First goal (min)45414035
First goal conceded (min)34434045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%55%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%68%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.390.520.260.26
Late goals against0.260.480.300.35
Style
Possession46%47%44%40%
Shots12.714.311.010.0
On target4.15.03.63.4
Shot conversion10%12%13%16%
Shots inside box63%63%70%77%
Big chances created1.82.42.22.2
Corners4.85.44.53.6
xG from set plays31%28%39%33%
Goals from headers17%15%28%25%
Pressure index11.715.410.18.6
Dominant minutes46.754.439.934.2
Pass accuracy76%75%73%70%
Fouls11.011.112.312.8
Cards1.912.132.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Queens Park Rangers

0–15'712
16–30'711
31–45'1215
46–60'716
61–75'107
76–90'1812

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Queens Park Rangers · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.29) · stands out: as favourite +0.67

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.297
Early press (0-15, level)+0.047
Late push (76+, level)-0.093

Game state

When ahead+0.414
When level+0.367
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.325
10 min after scoring+0.394

Situations

At home+0.203
Away+0.354
3 days rest or fewer-0.172
4+ days rest+0.475

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.172
v bottom-tier opponents+0.475
As favourite+0.673
Evenly matched+0.083

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.077
Conceded when ahead-0.324
Conceded late (76+)-0.397

Congested vs rested -0.65 · Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level -0.59

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Queens Park Rangers

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-223 50%1.131.391.71.281.42
4-2-3-123 50%1.391.261.481.321.24

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.8Home 32% P 32%3.25Draw 27% P 27%2.2Away 41% P 41%

Double Chance

1.57QPR or Draw 30%1.3QPR or Derby 36%1.36Draw or Derby 34%

Draw No Bet

2.11 44%1.662 56%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54%2.0No 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 48%1.8Under 53% P 52%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home32%31%31%-0.2
Draw27%28%24%-4.2
Away41%41%46%+4.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

John Busby

Career
130 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.82 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.7 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.15
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 113 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.874.05-0.3335
Fouls / match20.921.8-0.89
Fouls per card5.55.4-0.15 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4029
Time added7.87.2+0.6871
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-18 60 200 26'10
2026-04-11 50 140 33'10
2026-04-03 20 210 21'8
2026-03-21 · Queens Park Rangers 60 261 22'4
2026-03-07 60 300 19'6
2026-02-25 50 260 9'10
2026-02-21 30 170 76'13
2026-02-07 21 210 5'7
2026-01-31 30 211 33'8
2026-01-17 20 250 31'7