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Championship · Matchweek 45

Momentum

SouthamptonBBR
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
45

Venue

Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Capacity
32,384
Surface
grass
Attendance
25,576

Teams

Coaches
Tonda Eckert · Michael O'Neill
Position
5 · 19
Formation
5-4-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Joshua Smith

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
11.8° (feels 11.4°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
92%

Where to watch

No broadcast listings.

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Southampton

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 12 GA 3 · xG 7.71–6.11 · xPts 7.75

  • W H Derby County 2–1 xG 1.57–1.68 UK CHAMP
  • W A Wrexham 5–1 xG 2.31–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • W H Arsenal 2–1 xG 0.81–1.82 UK FA Cup
  • W H Oxford United 2–0 xG 2.29–0.68 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 1–0 xG 0.72–1.04 UK CHAMP

Blackburn Rovers

WDWDD 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 2 · xG 5.84–6.16 · xPts 6.54

  • D A Stoke City 1–1 xG 0.67–1.8 UK CHAMP
  • D H West Bromwich Albion 0–0 xG 0.95–0.74 UK CHAMP
  • W A Birmingham City 1–0 xG 1.66–1.09 UK CHAMP
  • D H Middlesbrough 0–0 xG 0.49–1.51 UK CHAMP
  • W A Millwall 2–1 xG 2.07–1.03 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 12 matches since 2001

Southampton 43 draws5 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 16–14 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 42% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Southampton 43 draws3 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 15–10 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Southampton 21 draws2 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 8–5 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Southampton 3–0 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 2–1 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Blackburn Rovers 0–0 Southampton UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 4–0 Blackburn Rovers neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 3–0 Southampton neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 3–2 Blackburn Rovers UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Blackburn Rovers 1–1 Southampton UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Southampton 2–0 Blackburn Rovers UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 1–0 Southampton UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Southampton 1–1 Blackburn Rovers UK PL · Regular Season
MetricSouthampton all · 48Southampton at home · 24Blackburn Rovers all · 46Blackburn Rovers away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.961.131.35
W / D / L23 / 15 / 1013 / 8 / 313 / 13 / 209 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.751.670.911.00
Goals against / match1.190.831.221.26
Clean sheets25%42%26%30%
Failed to score12%17%35%39%
Both teams scored71%54%48%39%
Over 2.562%54%39%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.781.201.13
xG against / match1.331.091.301.45
xG difference0.380.69-0.10-0.31
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.11-0.28-0.13
xPts / match1.591.781.321.19
Points vs xPts0.160.18-0.190.16
Game state
Scored first52%50%46%52%
PPG when scoring first2.242.671.762.17
PPG when conceding first1.261.330.520.33
Came back from behind54%67%26%9%
Leads held72%81%56%69%
Minutes leading34%36%21%28%
Minutes level49%48%55%48%
Minutes trailing18%16%24%24%
First goal (min)40394436
First goal conceded (min)44404944
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%49%48%39%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%55%59%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.250.220.09
Late goals against0.270.170.390.35
Style
Possession56%58%48%47%
Shots14.415.811.511.4
On target5.35.53.23.1
Shot conversion12%11%8%9%
Shots inside box68%66%67%66%
Big chances created2.92.92.02.2
Corners5.86.55.34.9
xG from set plays28%26%27%24%
Goals from headers22%25%27%27%
Pressure index17.921.110.19.4
Dominant minutes59.063.844.643.4
Pass accuracy83%84%74%75%
Fouls10.79.810.511.3
Cards1.881.632.172.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Southampton

0–15'135
16–30'178
31–45'79
46–60'1710
61–75'1212
76–90'1713

Blackburn Rovers

0–15'54
16–30'67
31–45'1112
46–60'69
61–75'46
76–90'1018

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Southampton · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.267
Late push (76+, level)+0.393

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.037
When behind+0.622
10 min after conceding-0.187
10 min after scoring+0.297

Situations

At home+0.034
Away+0.363
3 days rest or fewer+0.252
4+ days rest+0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.234
v bottom-tier opponents+0.123
As favourite+0.206

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead+0.166
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level +0.16 · Behind vs level +0.59

Blackburn Rovers · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.55

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)-0.197
Late push (76+, level)+0.512
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.353

Game state

When ahead-0.145
When level+0.067
When behind+0.155
10 min after conceding+0.236
10 min after scoring+0.556

Situations

At home+0.004
Away+0.103
3 days rest or fewer+0.282
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.016
Evenly matched+0.125
As underdog-0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.067
Conceded when ahead+0.045
Conceded late (76+)-0.057

Congested vs rested +0.32 · Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level +0.09

Southampton

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 2 · scoring 8 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-120 42%2.051.950.951.521.23
3-4-2-117 35%1.181.651.651.951.44
3-4-34 8%1.51.51.51.071.7
5-4-12 4%2.01.50.02.420.33
4-2-2-22 4%2.02.01.52.560.86

Blackburn Rovers

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-1-217 37%1.060.941.291.311.11
4-2-3-113 28%1.080.921.231.131.34
3-4-2-112 26%1.170.831.081.151.35
3-5-22 4%1.51.51.01.062.12
3-1-4-21 2%0.00.03.00.782.71

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.48Home 63% P 64%4.2Draw 22% P 22%6.25Away 15% P 14%

Double Chance

1.12Southampton or Draw 42%1.22Southampton or Blackburn 38%2.37Draw or Blackburn 20%

Draw No Bet

1.181 79%4.52 21%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49%1.8No 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 52%1.9Under 50% P 48%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 62.5–65% · away 12.5–15% · 544 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home64%64%63%-0.9
Draw22%22%24%+2.1
Away14%14%13%-1.1

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 55%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Joshua Smith

Career
156 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.95 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 122 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.05+0.4563
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.21
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.42 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.2667
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-06 51 240 17'9
2026-03-21 70 211 12'9
2026-03-14 51 210 36'11
2026-03-08 12 5
2026-02-22 82 310 16'9
2026-02-15 30 150 45'6
2026-02-07 71 231 13'6
2026-01-31 30 150 25'12
2026-01-24 50 191 22'7
2026-01-16 20 150 69'5