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Bundesliga · Matchweek 4

Momentum

FC AugsburgFSV Mainz 05
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
WWK Arena, Augsburg
Capacity
30,660
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,162

Teams

Coaches
Sandro Wagner · Bo Henriksen
Position
12 · 15
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Daniel Schlager

Weather

Conditions
sky is clear
Temperature
25.6° (feels 25.5°)
Wind
2.5
Humidity
51%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Augsburg

WLL 1W 0D 2L · 3 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 3.0–7.06 · xPts 1.87

  • L A St. Pauli 1–2 xG 0.68–2.1 GER BI
  • L H FC Bayern München 2–3 xG 0.78–2.65 GER BI
  • W A SC Freiburg 3–1 xG 1.54–2.32 GER BI

FSV Mainz 05

LLWDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 7.8–6.58 · xPts 8.09

  • L H RB Leipzig 0–1 xG 1.17–1.41 GER BI
  • D A VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 xG 1.94–0.64 GER BI
  • W H Rosenborg 4–1 xG 2.28–0.39 UEFA ECL
  • L H FC Köln 0–1 xG 1.95–1.18 GER BI
  • L A Rosenborg 1–2 xG 0.46–2.96 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 30 matches since 2011

FC Augsburg 123 draws15 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 39–50 · 2.97 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 63%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Augsburg 21 draws7 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 10–21 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Augsburg 01 draws4 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 3–10 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L FSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 1–4 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 2–3 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FSV Mainz 05 1–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FSV Mainz 05 3–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 1–2 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FSV Mainz 05 4–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Augsburg all · 34FC Augsburg at home · 17FSV Mainz 05 all · 34FSV Mainz 05 away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.261.531.181.35
W / D / L12 / 7 / 157 / 5 / 510 / 10 / 146 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.321.471.291.35
Goals against / match1.791.651.561.65
Clean sheets15%29%12%12%
Failed to score26%18%29%24%
Both teams scored62%59%62%65%
Over 2.562%53%53%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.351.581.41
xG against / match1.841.521.651.89
xG difference-0.46-0.17-0.07-0.48
Finishing vs xG-0.060.12-0.28-0.06
xPts / match1.171.311.391.18
Points vs xPts0.100.22-0.220.17
Game state
Scored first50%59%47%53%
PPG when scoring first1.762.201.811.89
PPG when conceding first0.750.500.590.75
Came back from behind21%17%33%40%
Leads held57%64%53%54%
Minutes leading24%29%28%34%
Minutes level46%48%43%36%
Minutes trailing30%23%29%30%
First goal (min)42453737
First goal conceded (min)41454444
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half53%60%48%44%
Goals conceded in 2nd half49%46%57%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.290.260.18
Late goals against0.290.180.590.65
Style
Possession44%45%44%42%
Shots13.213.212.110.5
On target4.65.14.24.2
Shot conversion10%11%11%13%
Shots inside box64%66%76%75%
Big chances created2.22.53.23.0
Corners4.65.25.13.9
xG from set plays31%25%39%40%
Goals from headers16%12%18%22%
Pressure index9.512.110.98.9
Dominant minutes40.546.944.037.8
Pass accuracy78%79%75%74%
Fouls11.011.311.010.1
Cards2.472.652.242.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Augsburg

0–15'68
16–30'610
31–45'913
46–60'911
61–75'59
76–90'1010

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'810
16–30'56
31–45'107
46–60'57
61–75'73
76–90'920

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Augsburg · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: when level -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.173
Early press (0-15, level)-0.343

Game state

When ahead+0.103
When level-0.493
When behind-0.482
10 min after conceding-0.592
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home-0.172
4+ days rest-0.173

Opposition

As underdog-0.332

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.523
Conceded when ahead+0.173
Conceded late (76+)+0.323

Ahead vs level +0.59 · Behind vs level +0.00

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

FC Augsburg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-129 85%1.241.341.931.381.93
5-4-12 6%0.50.51.01.590.84
3-4-32 6%3.02.00.51.421.83
3-3-3-11 3%0.01.02.00.931.31

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-217 50%1.821.711.411.871.7
3-4-2-111 32%0.450.912.01.261.72
3-1-4-22 6%0.51.01.51.561.4
5-3-22 6%0.50.00.51.160.45
5-4-11 3%1.02.02.00.543.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.62Home 36% P 36%3.5Draw 27% P 27%2.6Away 37% P 37%

Double Chance

1.5Augsburg or Draw 31% P 32%1.28Augsburg or Mainz 36% P 36%1.44Draw or Mainz 32% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 61%2.25No 41% P 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 56%2.2Under 43% P 44%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.51.8Over 51%1.9Under 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 35–37.5% · 584 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home36%36%35%-0.6
Draw27%28%28%+0.2
Away37%36%36%+0.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes61%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,508 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Daniel Schlager

Career
120 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.56 (4.36 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
23.0 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 71 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.624.15+0.8885
Fouls / match22.022.3-0.38
Fouls per card4.95.4-0.86 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.380.33+0.5674
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-08-31 21 9
2025-08-28 91 320 20'9
2025-08-14 50 200 8'9
2025-08-07 10 200 73'14
2025-05-17 16 3
2025-04-13 51 250 6'2
2025-03-30 · FSV Mainz 05 20 180 45'7
2025-03-09 50 200 9'7
2025-02-22 50 210 12'5
2025-02-08 · FC Augsburg · FSV Mainz 05 60 210 8'11