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Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
2–1
FT
HeidenheimHeidenheim

Momentum

– Hamburger SVHeidenheim –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Capacity
57,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
57,000

Teams

Coaches
Merlin Polzin · Frank Schmidt
Position
17 · 18
Formation
3-4-3 · 4-3-2-1

Referee

Florian Exner

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
25.1° (feels 24.7°)
Wind
4.2
Humidity
43%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Hamburger SV

DLL 0W 1D 2L · 1 pts (0.33 ppg) · GF 0 GA 7 · xG 1.56–5.28 · xPts 1.65

  • L A FC Bayern München 0–5 xG 0.77–2.73 GER BI
  • L H St. Pauli 0–2 xG 0.29–1.25 GER BI
  • D A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 xG 0.5–1.31 GER BI

Heidenheim

LLL 0W 0D 3L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 1 GA 7 · xG 2.22–7.27 · xPts 1.35

  • L H Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 0.41–2.5 GER BI
  • L A RB Leipzig 0–2 xG 1.0–2.61 GER BI
  • L H VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 xG 0.81–2.16 GER BI

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Hamburger SV 20 draws0 Heidenheim

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Hamburger SV 20 draws0 Heidenheim

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Hamburger SV 20 draws0 Heidenheim

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • W FC Heidenheim 0–2 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Hamburger SV 2–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricHamburger SV all · 34Hamburger SV at home · 17Heidenheim all · 34Heidenheim away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.121.410.760.53
W / D / L9 / 11 / 146 / 6 / 56 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match1.181.471.211.06
Goals against / match1.591.292.122.06
Clean sheets18%12%3%0%
Failed to score29%24%35%35%
Both teams scored65%71%62%65%
Over 2.556%53%68%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.311.501.361.27
xG against / match1.811.541.911.89
xG difference-0.50-0.03-0.55-0.62
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.03-0.16-0.21
xPts / match1.141.361.101.04
Points vs xPts-0.020.05-0.33-0.51
Game state
Scored first35%47%24%18%
PPG when scoring first1.581.882.001.67
PPG when conceding first0.831.000.380.29
Came back from behind36%50%23%14%
Leads held56%60%46%33%
Minutes leading16%19%15%12%
Minutes level58%58%48%50%
Minutes trailing26%24%37%39%
First goal (min)43364553
First goal conceded (min)40403941
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%52%61%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%46%54%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.240.320.24
Late goals against0.380.240.440.35
Style
Possession45%45%42%43%
Shots12.313.311.411.3
On target4.64.73.63.3
Shot conversion10%11%11%9%
Shots inside box66%70%69%72%
Big chances created1.92.52.52.4
Corners3.73.84.54.4
xG from set plays29%28%33%27%
Goals from headers8%8%15%17%
Pressure index9.110.47.78.0
Dominant minutes38.341.435.333.2
Pass accuracy80%80%76%76%
Fouls11.812.19.810.3
Cards2.682.471.441.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

0–15'34
16–30'411
31–45'1010
46–60'910
61–75'86
76–90'613

Heidenheim

0–15'45
16–30'611
31–45'617
46–60'713
61–75'711
76–90'1115

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.223
Early press (0-15, level)-0.203

Game state

When level-0.253
When behind-0.213
10 min after conceding-0.453

Situations

Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.223

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.163

Behind vs level +0.04

Heidenheim

No pressure profile yet.

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-317 50%1.291.291.351.321.54
3-4-2-110 29%1.31.31.41.462.13
3-4-1-23 9%0.00.673.00.972.31
5-4-11 3%0.00.05.00.772.73
3-5-1-11 3%1.02.02.02.562.41

Heidenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.331.541.71
4-3-2-15 15%0.81.02.41.362.26
4-3-34 12%1.01.752.251.01.59
4-4-24 12%1.52.01.51.861.09
4-2-3-14 12%0.250.252.00.792.1

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.75Home 54% P 54%3.9Draw 24% P 24%4.5Away 21% P 21%

Double Chance

1.18Hamburg or Draw 39% P 39%1.25Hamburg or Heidenheim 37% P 38%2.0Draw or Heidenheim 23% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 59%2.2No 42% P 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 58%2.3Under 41% P 42%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 20–22.5% · 664 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home54%54%56%+2.6
Draw24%25%27%+1.4
Away21%21%17%-4.1

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes59%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Florian Exner

Career
26 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.85 (4.58 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 4.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.39
Cards to home side
52%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 26 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.044.14+1.8296
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card4.35.4-1.83 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.32+0.6378
Time added9.96.8+3.13100
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.13

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-08-30 70 250 31'20
2025-05-03 92 291 16'10
2025-04-11 50 270 34'6
2025-03-15 30 210 53'6
2025-02-22 51 190 13'10
2025-02-01 20 170 78'6
2025-01-19 40 222 26'7
2024-12-21 40 210 5'12
2024-12-01 · Heidenheim 20 160 33'5
2024-10-27 20 210 12'6