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Bundesliga · Matchweek 4

Momentum

RB LeipzigFC Köln
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Capacity
47,069
Surface
grass
Attendance
47,117

Teams

Coaches
Ole Werner · Lukas Kwasniok
Position
6 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Benjamin Brand

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
28.8° (feels 27.8°)
Wind
4.3
Humidity
32%

Where to watch · 442

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

RB Leipzig

LWW 2W 0D 1L · 6 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 6 · xG 4.73–4.12 · xPts 4.45

  • W A FSV Mainz 05 1–0 xG 1.41–1.17 GER BI
  • W H FC Heidenheim 2–0 xG 2.61–1.0 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 0–6 xG 0.72–1.95 GER BI

FC Köln

WWD 2W 1D 0L · 7 pts (2.33 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 4.81–5.09 · xPts 3.99

  • D A VfL Wolfsburg 3–3 xG 1.58–1.99 GER BI
  • W H SC Freiburg 4–1 xG 2.05–1.16 GER BI
  • W A FSV Mainz 05 1–0 xG 1.18–1.95 GER BI

All meetings · 16 matches since 2016

RB Leipzig 95 draws2 FC Köln

Goals 38–17 · 3.44 per match · BTTS 81% · over 2.5 75%

Last 10 · 10 matches

RB Leipzig 54 draws1 FC Köln

Goals 23–9 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

RB Leipzig 41 draws0 FC Köln

Goals 16–3 · 3.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W FC Köln 1–2 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 3–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 1–5 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 6–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Köln 0–0 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • D RB Leipzig 2–2 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W RB Leipzig 3–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Köln 1–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Köln 2–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • D RB Leipzig 0–0 FC Köln neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricRB Leipzig all · 34RB Leipzig at home · 17FC Köln all · 34FC Köln away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.912.240.940.76
W / D / L20 / 5 / 912 / 2 / 37 / 11 / 162 / 7 / 8
Goals for / match1.942.351.441.12
Goals against / match1.381.181.851.94
Clean sheets32%35%9%12%
Failed to score9%0%12%18%
Both teams scored62%65%79%71%
Over 2.571%76%65%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.072.441.491.39
xG against / match1.421.431.661.88
xG difference0.651.01-0.18-0.49
Finishing vs xG-0.13-0.09-0.05-0.27
xPts / match1.761.961.271.10
Points vs xPts0.160.27-0.33-0.34
Game state
Scored first74%88%41%29%
PPG when scoring first2.282.271.571.60
PPG when conceding first0.872.000.500.42
Came back from behind25%40%38%43%
Leads held74%75%44%40%
Minutes leading37%42%19%11%
Minutes level47%47%51%55%
Minutes trailing16%11%30%34%
First goal (min)38414248
First goal conceded (min)48524442
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%52%61%58%
Goals conceded in 2nd half64%75%56%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.470.560.47
Late goals against0.440.470.350.41
Style
Possession54%56%47%46%
Shots15.817.313.411.7
On target6.07.34.73.8
Shot conversion12%14%11%10%
Shots inside box72%77%70%71%
Big chances created3.64.72.52.1
Corners5.35.94.64.4
xG from set plays22%24%27%29%
Goals from headers14%18%16%16%
Pressure index16.120.111.08.6
Dominant minutes54.561.842.835.8
Pass accuracy84%85%80%80%
Fouls9.38.18.38.1
Cards1.531.352.001.94

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

RB Leipzig

0–15'70
16–30'118
31–45'149
46–60'139
61–75'116
76–90'1015

FC Köln

0–15'98
16–30'69
31–45'411
46–60'78
61–75'415
76–90'1912

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

RB Leipzig · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.50

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.504
Late chase (76+, behind)+1.252

Game state

When ahead+0.232
When level-0.504
When behind+0.572
10 min after conceding+0.082
10 min after scoring+0.404

Situations

At home+0.002
Away+0.452
4+ days rest+0.383

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.002
As favourite+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.214
Conceded when ahead-0.132
Conceded late (76+)-0.672

Congested vs rested -0.55 · Ahead vs level +0.73 · Behind vs level +1.06

FC Köln · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.033
Early press (0-15, level)-0.053
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.222
When level-0.153
When behind+0.382
10 min after conceding+0.073
10 min after scoring+0.593

Situations

At home-0.182
4+ days rest-0.033

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.273
Conceded when ahead+0.492
Conceded late (76+)-0.423

Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level +0.54

RB Leipzig

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-329 85%1.831.931.482.011.42
4-2-3-13 9%3.02.00.332.511.22
4-1-4-11 3%3.03.01.02.531.26
4-4-1-11 3%0.01.02.01.922.0

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-18 24%0.751.631.881.541.26
3-4-36 18%1.01.171.671.381.2
3-4-2-16 18%1.330.831.00.791.64
5-3-25 15%0.41.63.01.592.41
4-4-24 12%1.751.51.02.081.56

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 51% P 51%4.0Draw 24% P 24%3.8Away 25% P 25%

Double Chance

1.25RB Leipzig or Draw 37% P 37%1.22RB Leipzig or Cologne 38% P 38%1.9Draw or Cologne 25% P 25%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.4Yes 66% P 69%2.75No 34% P 31%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 68%3.0Under 32% P 32%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

4.51.9Over 49%1.8Under 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 22.5–25% · 500 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home51%51%53%+2.3
Draw24%25%23%-2.6
Away25%23%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Both teams to score · yes 67.5–70% · 136 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes69%69%68%-0.9

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.568%69%69%+0.6

Benjamin Brand

Career
101 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.01 (3.82 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 59 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.344.14+0.2763
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.39
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.28 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.32+0.8889
Time added7.36.8+0.4078
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-08-23 50 241 5'7
2025-05-17 60 290 42'16
2025-04-26 60 261 41'18
2025-04-12 70 260 37'3
2025-03-15 31 140 2'7
2025-02-28 80 250 39'3
2025-02-15 10 201 63'6
2025-02-02 40 160 45'9
2025-01-19 30 220 45'8
2025-01-11 20 220 33'11