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Bundesliga · Matchweek 4

Momentum

VFBSt. Pauli
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
MHPArena, Stuttgart
Capacity
60,449
Surface
grass
Attendance
60,000

Teams

Coaches
Sebastian Hoeneß · Alexander Blessin
Position
12 · 4
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-1-2

Referee

Sascha Stegemann

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
26.0° (feels 26.0°)
Wind
1.8
Humidity
46%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfB Stuttgart

LWL 1W 0D 2L · 3 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 5 · xG 3.55–4.2 · xPts 3.71

  • L A SC Freiburg 1–3 xG 0.72–1.77 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 xG 0.89–1.85 GER BI
  • L A FC Union Berlin 1–2 xG 1.94–0.58 GER BI

St. Pauli

DWW 2W 1D 0L · 7 pts (2.33 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 5.11–2.53 · xPts 5.96

  • W H FC Augsburg 2–1 xG 2.1–0.68 GER BI
  • W A Hamburger SV 2–0 xG 1.25–0.29 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Dortmund 3–3 xG 1.77–1.56 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

VfB Stuttgart 40 draws2 St. Pauli

Goals 8–4 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 6 matches

VfB Stuttgart 40 draws2 St. Pauli

Goals 8–4 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart 30 draws2 St. Pauli

Goals 6–4 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L St. Pauli 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 2–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 0–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 0–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • W St. Pauli 1–2 VfB Stuttgart neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 2–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart at home · 17St. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.822.290.760.53
W / D / L18 / 8 / 812 / 3 / 26 / 8 / 202 / 3 / 12
Goals for / match2.091.760.850.71
Goals against / match1.440.941.761.71
Clean sheets32%47%15%18%
Failed to score9%18%38%41%
Both teams scored62%41%56%47%
Over 2.574%47%56%41%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.802.000.990.85
xG against / match1.541.201.671.70
xG difference0.260.80-0.68-0.86
Finishing vs xG0.28-0.23-0.14-0.14
xPts / match1.581.860.970.83
Points vs xPts0.240.43-0.21-0.31
Game state
Scored first53%53%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.332.781.701.40
PPG when conceding first1.271.860.290.09
Came back from behind56%71%17%8%
Leads held75%92%54%40%
Minutes leading32%30%13%12%
Minutes level47%58%50%47%
Minutes trailing21%11%37%40%
First goal (min)40435047
First goal conceded (min)38374034
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%53%62%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%56%62%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.530.210.12
Late goals against0.500.470.380.35
Style
Possession58%58%44%44%
Shots15.216.610.39.9
On target6.16.23.42.5
Shot conversion14%11%8%7%
Shots inside box66%65%59%57%
Big chances created3.33.71.71.5
Corners5.75.94.73.6
xG from set plays24%22%34%19%
Goals from headers9%10%24%25%
Pressure index19.217.58.46.2
Dominant minutes61.563.438.232.0
Pass accuracy84%84%77%77%
Fouls9.69.39.69.7
Cards1.911.941.681.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level -0.24

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.72Home 55% P 51%4.2Draw 23% P 25%4.33Away 22% P 24%

Double Chance

1.2VfB Stuttgart or Draw 39% P 38%1.22VfB Stuttgart or St Pauli 38% P 37%2.05Draw or St Pauli 23% P 25%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55% P 61%2.05No 45% P 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 59%2.1Under 45% P 41%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 22.5–25% · 500 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home51%51%53%+2.3
Draw25%25%23%-2.6
Away24%23%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes61%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Sascha Stegemann

Career
194 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.22 (4.04 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.3 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 72 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.964.15-0.5726
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.33-1.2315
Time added6.76.8-0.2333
First card
36' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-08-24 30 200 34'8
2025-08-21 50 370 12'8
2025-08-14 10 191 14'8
2025-05-17 10 6
2025-05-02 10 220 45'18
2025-04-19 50 270 39'7
2025-03-29 50 210 16'7
2025-03-07 10 120 90'6
2025-02-23 20 150 77'8
2025-02-14 30 240 28'5