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Bundesliga · Matchweek 5

Momentum

HeidenheimFC Augsburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion, Heidenheim an der Brenz
Capacity
15,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
15,000

Teams

Coaches
Frank Schmidt · Sandro Wagner
Position
17 · 16
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-3-3-1

Referee

Tobias Welz

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
12.3° (feels 11.8°)
Wind
2.5
Humidity
85%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Heidenheim

LLLL 0W 0D 4L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 2 GA 9 · xG 4.35–9.93 · xPts 2.48

  • L A Hamburger SV 1–2 xG 2.13–2.66 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 0.41–2.5 GER BI
  • L A RB Leipzig 0–2 xG 1.0–2.61 GER BI
  • L H VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 xG 0.81–2.16 GER BI

FC Augsburg

WLLL 1W 0D 3L · 3 pts (0.75 ppg) · GF 7 GA 10 · xG 4.2–9.04 · xPts 2.77

  • L H FSV Mainz 05 1–4 xG 1.2–1.98 GER BI
  • L A St. Pauli 1–2 xG 0.68–2.1 GER BI
  • L H FC Bayern München 2–3 xG 0.78–2.65 GER BI
  • W A SC Freiburg 3–1 xG 1.54–2.32 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2023

Heidenheim 20 draws4 FC Augsburg

Goals 9–10 · 3.17 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 6 matches

Heidenheim 20 draws4 FC Augsburg

Goals 9–10 · 3.17 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Heidenheim 20 draws3 FC Augsburg

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L FC Augsburg 1–0 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Heidenheim 2–1 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 2–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Heidenheim 4–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 1–0 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Heidenheim 2–5 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricHeidenheim all · 34Heidenheim at home · 17FC Augsburg all · 34FC Augsburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.001.261.00
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 812 / 7 / 155 / 2 / 10
Goals for / match1.211.351.321.18
Goals against / match2.122.181.791.94
Clean sheets3%6%15%0%
Failed to score35%35%26%35%
Both teams scored62%59%62%65%
Over 2.568%71%62%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.361.461.391.42
xG against / match1.911.931.842.17
xG difference-0.55-0.47-0.46-0.75
Finishing vs xG-0.16-0.11-0.06-0.24
xPts / match1.101.151.171.02
Points vs xPts-0.33-0.150.10-0.02
Game state
Scored first24%29%50%41%
PPG when scoring first2.002.201.761.14
PPG when conceding first0.380.500.750.90
Came back from behind23%33%21%23%
Leads held46%57%57%50%
Minutes leading15%18%24%18%
Minutes level48%46%46%44%
Minutes trailing37%36%30%38%
First goal (min)45364240
First goal conceded (min)39384138
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%61%53%45%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%54%49%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.320.410.290.29
Late goals against0.440.530.290.41
Style
Possession42%42%44%43%
Shots11.411.513.213.2
On target3.63.94.64.2
Shot conversion11%12%10%9%
Shots inside box69%66%64%62%
Big chances created2.52.72.21.9
Corners4.54.64.64.0
xG from set plays33%38%31%36%
Goals from headers15%13%16%20%
Pressure index7.77.49.56.9
Dominant minutes35.337.540.534.2
Pass accuracy76%76%78%78%
Fouls9.89.411.010.8
Cards1.441.182.472.29

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Heidenheim

0–15'45
16–30'611
31–45'617
46–60'713
61–75'711
76–90'1115

FC Augsburg

0–15'68
16–30'610
31–45'913
46–60'911
61–75'59
76–90'1010

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Heidenheim

No pressure profile yet.

FC Augsburg · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: when level -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.173
Early press (0-15, level)-0.343

Game state

When ahead+0.103
When level-0.493
When behind-0.482
10 min after conceding-0.592
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home-0.172
4+ days rest-0.173

Opposition

As underdog-0.332

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.523
Conceded when ahead+0.173
Conceded late (76+)+0.323

Ahead vs level +0.59 · Behind vs level +0.00

Heidenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.331.541.71
4-3-2-15 15%0.81.02.41.362.26
4-3-34 12%1.01.752.251.01.59
4-2-3-14 12%0.250.252.00.792.1
4-4-24 12%1.52.01.51.861.09

FC Augsburg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-129 85%1.241.341.931.381.93
5-4-12 6%0.50.51.01.590.84
3-4-32 6%3.02.00.51.421.83
3-3-3-11 3%0.01.02.00.931.31

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.87Home 33% P 33%3.5Draw 27% P 27%2.4Away 40% P 40%

Double Chance

1.53Heidenheim or Draw 30% P 30%1.28Heidenheim or Augsburg 36% P 36%1.4Draw or Augsburg 33% P 33%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 59%2.2No 42% P 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 54%2.1Under 45% P 46%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.51.72Over 54% P 52%2.0Under 46% P 48%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home33%34%31%-2.8
Draw27%28%28%-0.1
Away40%39%42%+3.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes59%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,943 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.554%54%55%+0.8

Tobias Welz

Career
167 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.16 (3.96 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 49 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.614.15+0.8682
Fouls / match23.522.3+0.93
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.40 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.33-0.5126
Time added7.06.8+0.0952
First card
26' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-13 11 252 57'12
2025-05-17 · Heidenheim 50 221 39'4
2025-04-25 · Heidenheim 40 300 21'9
2025-04-12 13 3
2025-03-08 80 220 18'9
2025-02-15 60 251 8'10
2025-02-01 50 250 42'5
2025-01-14 50 180 17'5
2024-12-21 · FC Augsburg 40 240 29'8
2024-12-06 70 330 34'9