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Bundesliga · Matchweek 5

Momentum

FC KölnVFB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Capacity
50,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
50,000

Teams

Coaches
Lukas Kwasniok · Sebastian Hoeneß
Position
6 · 9
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
17.1° (feels 16.4°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
57%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Köln

WWDL 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 9 GA 7 · xG 6.3–8.59 · xPts 4.49

  • L A RB Leipzig 1–3 xG 1.49–3.5 GER BI
  • D A VfL Wolfsburg 3–3 xG 1.58–1.99 GER BI
  • W H SC Freiburg 4–1 xG 2.05–1.16 GER BI
  • W A FSV Mainz 05 1–0 xG 1.18–1.95 GER BI

VfB Stuttgart

LWLWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 7.55–5.7 · xPts 8.12

  • W H Celta de Vigo 2–1 xG 1.91–0.56 UEFA EL
  • W H St. Pauli 2–0 xG 2.09–0.94 GER BI
  • L A SC Freiburg 1–3 xG 0.72–1.77 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 xG 0.89–1.85 GER BI
  • L A FC Union Berlin 1–2 xG 1.94–0.58 GER BI

All meetings · 27 matches since 2005

FC Köln 77 draws13 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 30–45 · 2.78 per match · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 56%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Köln 12 draws7 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 6–18 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Köln 01 draws4 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 4–12 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L VfB Stuttgart 4–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 3–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Köln 1–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Köln 0–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 3–0 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Köln 0–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 2–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Köln 1–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Köln 0–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Köln all · 34FC Köln at home · 17VfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.941.121.821.35
W / D / L7 / 11 / 165 / 4 / 818 / 8 / 86 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.441.762.092.41
Goals against / match1.851.761.441.94
Clean sheets9%6%32%18%
Failed to score12%6%9%0%
Both teams scored79%88%62%82%
Over 2.565%76%74%100%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.491.591.801.61
xG against / match1.661.441.541.89
xG difference-0.180.140.26-0.28
Finishing vs xG-0.050.180.280.80
xPts / match1.271.441.581.30
Points vs xPts-0.33-0.320.240.05
Game state
Scored first41%53%53%53%
PPG when scoring first1.571.562.331.89
PPG when conceding first0.500.631.270.75
Came back from behind38%33%56%46%
Leads held44%46%75%54%
Minutes leading19%27%32%34%
Minutes level51%47%47%36%
Minutes trailing30%26%21%30%
First goal (min)42364038
First goal conceded (min)44463838
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%63%54%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%57%53%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.560.650.650.76
Late goals against0.350.290.500.53
Style
Possession47%49%58%57%
Shots13.415.215.213.8
On target4.75.66.16.0
Shot conversion11%12%14%18%
Shots inside box70%69%66%66%
Big chances created2.52.93.32.9
Corners4.64.85.75.5
xG from set plays27%25%24%26%
Goals from headers16%17%9%8%
Pressure index11.013.319.220.8
Dominant minutes42.849.961.559.6
Pass accuracy80%80%84%84%
Fouls8.38.59.69.9
Cards2.002.061.911.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Köln

0–15'98
16–30'69
31–45'411
46–60'78
61–75'415
76–90'1912

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Köln · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.033
Early press (0-15, level)-0.053
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.222
When level-0.153
When behind+0.382
10 min after conceding+0.073
10 min after scoring+0.593

Situations

At home-0.182
4+ days rest-0.033

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.273
Conceded when ahead+0.492
Conceded late (76+)-0.423

Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level +0.54

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-18 24%0.751.631.881.541.26
3-4-2-16 18%1.330.831.00.791.64
3-4-36 18%1.01.171.671.381.2
5-3-25 15%0.41.63.01.592.41
4-4-24 12%1.751.51.02.081.56

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.5Home 38% P 38%3.7Draw 26% P 26%2.62Away 36% P 36%

Double Chance

1.44Cologne or Draw 32% P 32%1.28Cologne or VfB Stuttgart 36% P 37%1.5Draw or VfB Stuttgart 31% P 31%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65% P 67%2.62No 35% P 33%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.5Over 64% P 63%2.62Under 36% P 37%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 45%1.72Under 54% P 55%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 35–37.5% · 153 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home38%38%42%+3.4
Draw26%26%20%-5.4
Away36%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 68% · over 2.5 65%

Both teams to score · yes 65–67.5% · 319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes67%66%66%+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.563%64%63%-0.4

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Career
72 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
4.15 (4.01 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
23.1 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.42
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 64 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.024.14-0.4337
Fouls / match22.122.3-0.25
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.32+0.8785
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
37' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

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2025-09-14 10 211 38'7
2025-08-23 51 252 22'13
2025-07-15 61 311 15'9
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