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Bundesliga · Matchweek 5

Momentum

St. PauliB04
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Capacity
29,546
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,546

Teams

Coaches
Alexander Blessin · Kasper Hjulmand
Position
5 · 11
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Martin Petersen

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
18.1° (feels 17.2°)
Wind
4.9
Humidity
47%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

St. Pauli

DWWL 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 6.05–4.62 · xPts 6.64

  • L A VfB Stuttgart 0–2 xG 0.94–2.09 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 2–1 xG 2.1–0.68 GER BI
  • W A Hamburger SV 2–0 xG 1.25–0.29 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Dortmund 3–3 xG 1.77–1.56 GER BI

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

LDWDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 10 GA 9 · xG 7.52–5.58 · xPts 8.18

  • D H Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 xG 1.38–0.89 GER BI
  • D A FC København 2–2 xG 1.13–1.48 UEFA CL
  • W H Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 xG 2.13–0.89 GER BI
  • D A Werder Bremen 3–3 xG 1.89–1.71 GER BI
  • L H TSG Hoffenheim 1–2 xG 1.0–0.62 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

St. Pauli 01 draws5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 4–12 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 6 matches

St. Pauli 01 draws5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 4–12 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 5 matches

St. Pauli 01 draws4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 4–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D St. Pauli 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • L St. Pauli 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSt. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli at home · 17Bayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.001.741.65
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 817 / 8 / 98 / 4 / 5
Goals for / match0.851.002.001.76
Goals against / match1.761.821.381.65
Clean sheets15%12%24%12%
Failed to score38%35%12%24%
Both teams scored56%65%65%65%
Over 2.556%71%59%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.991.131.911.40
xG against / match1.671.631.401.71
xG difference-0.68-0.500.51-0.30
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.130.090.36
xPts / match0.971.111.651.21
Points vs xPts-0.21-0.110.080.44
Game state
Scored first29%29%65%59%
PPG when scoring first1.702.002.232.30
PPG when conceding first0.290.500.830.71
Came back from behind17%27%40%38%
Leads held54%67%68%67%
Minutes leading13%14%40%39%
Minutes level50%53%39%36%
Minutes trailing37%33%20%25%
First goal (min)50533429
First goal conceded (min)40453934
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%71%41%30%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%68%45%43%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.290.350.24
Late goals against0.380.410.260.35
Style
Possession44%45%59%57%
Shots10.310.615.211.7
On target3.44.25.23.8
Shot conversion8%9%13%15%
Shots inside box59%61%64%61%
Big chances created1.71.93.73.1
Corners4.75.95.64.5
xG from set plays34%46%27%26%
Goals from headers24%24%19%14%
Pressure index8.410.516.111.6
Dominant minutes38.244.457.149.4
Pass accuracy77%77%88%87%
Fouls9.69.58.68.5
Cards1.681.822.182.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

St. Pauli

No pressure profile yet.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.0Home 32% P 31%3.4Draw 28% P 28%2.37Away 40% P 41%

Double Chance

1.57St Pauli or Draw 30% P 30%1.3St Pauli or Bayer Leverkusen 36% P 36%1.36Draw or Bayer Leverkusen 34% P 34%

Draw No Bet

2.11 44%1.662 56%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55% P 58%2.05No 45% P 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 52%2.0Under 47% P 48%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 54%1.83Under 50% P 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home31%31%31%-0.2
Draw28%28%24%-4.2
Away41%41%46%+4.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes58%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Martin Petersen

Career
91 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.23 (4.05 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 53 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.554.14+0.7478
Fouls / match23.822.3+1.24
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.34 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.320.32-0.1037
Time added7.86.8+0.9389
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-05-04 10 200 72'12
2025-04-12 31 230 30'2
2025-03-15 30 160 30'6
2025-02-23 60 302 6'10
2025-01-31 112 271 10'12
2025-01-14 41 240 42'10
2024-11-30 30 170 26'22
2024-11-10 50 230 1'4
2024-10-25 50 320 40'8