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Bundesliga · Matchweek 5

Momentum

SC FreiburgTSG
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
33,700

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Christian Ilzer
Position
8 · 10
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Bastian Dankert

Weather

Conditions
sky is clear
Temperature
15.5° (feels 14.9°)
Wind
3.2
Humidity
66%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

LLWWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 10 GA 9 · xG 7.81–7.41 · xPts 7.15

  • W H Basel 2–1 xG 0.78–1.58 UEFA EL
  • W A Werder Bremen 3–0 xG 1.79–1.52 GER BI
  • W H VfB Stuttgart 3–1 xG 1.77–0.72 GER BI
  • L A FC Köln 1–4 xG 1.16–2.05 GER BI
  • L H FC Augsburg 1–3 xG 2.32–1.54 GER BI

TSG Hoffenheim

WLWL 2W 0D 2L · 6 pts (1.5 ppg) · GF 8 GA 10 · xG 5.66–7.98 · xPts 4.25

  • L H FC Bayern München 1–4 xG 0.82–2.68 GER BI
  • W A FC Union Berlin 4–2 xG 2.9–3.32 GER BI
  • L H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 xG 1.32–0.98 GER BI
  • W A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 xG 0.62–1.0 GER BI

All meetings · 32 matches since 2009

SC Freiburg 1213 draws7 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 54–49 · 3.22 per match · BTTS 78% · over 2.5 56%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Freiburg 53 draws2 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 17–16 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 22 draws1 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 8–9 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L TSG Hoffenheim 3–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 3–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 3–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 1–2 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W SC Freiburg 2–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 0–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 3–4 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17TSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.881.791.71
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 318 / 7 / 98 / 5 / 4
Goals for / match1.501.941.911.76
Goals against / match1.681.291.531.82
Clean sheets18%12%21%18%
Failed to score26%6%18%24%
Both teams scored62%82%65%65%
Over 2.565%71%71%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.881.711.56
xG against / match1.521.311.461.70
xG difference-0.010.580.25-0.14
Finishing vs xG-0.010.060.200.20
xPts / match1.361.711.581.38
Points vs xPts0.020.170.210.33
Game state
Scored first44%59%47%35%
PPG when scoring first2.002.102.752.67
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.941.20
Came back from behind44%70%47%60%
Leads held68%69%86%80%
Minutes leading22%32%37%28%
Minutes level54%50%40%46%
Minutes trailing23%18%22%26%
First goal (min)38373433
First goal conceded (min)42453727
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%45%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%50%42%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.290.18
Late goals against0.380.290.350.35
Style
Possession48%51%55%54%
Shots12.314.214.112.0
On target4.25.15.24.4
Shot conversion12%14%14%15%
Shots inside box69%69%69%70%
Big chances created2.32.82.82.5
Corners4.14.55.85.2
xG from set plays42%41%35%33%
Goals from headers14%9%22%23%
Pressure index14.318.314.512.4
Dominant minutes51.058.156.950.5
Pass accuracy80%80%80%79%
Fouls9.48.913.914.5
Cards1.621.652.262.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
3-4-2-12 6%3.02.51.01.611.21

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 41% P 41%3.4Draw 28% P 29%3.1Away 31% P 30%

Double Chance

1.36SC Freiburg or Draw 34% P 35%1.3SC Freiburg or TSG Hoffenheim 36% P 36%1.57Draw or TSG Hoffenheim 30% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56% P 58%2.1No 44% P 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 52%1.9Under 50% P 48%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%42%+0.5
Draw29%30%27%-2.4
Away30%29%31%+1.9

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes58%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Bastian Dankert

Career
206 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.13 (3.94 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 65 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.894.14-0.7222
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.47
Fouls per card6.25.4+1.25 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.32-1.647
Time added6.26.8-0.7515
First card
38' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-13 50 260 68'30
2025-05-10 40 190 2'7
2025-04-26 40 300 36'6
2025-04-12 30 230 84'4
2025-03-29 60 181 32'12
2025-03-08 31 170 8'5
2025-02-22 40 210 17'1
2025-01-25 40 180 40'8
2025-01-18 30 291 38'8
2024-12-21 · TSG Hoffenheim 20 7